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FXUS61 KILN 231317 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 917 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. Chances for rain will increase into mid week next week as an upper level low moves southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pressure will remain in place across our area through this afternoon. A few high level clouds associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia may affect our far eastern areas today but overall, expect mostly sunny skies. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
For tonight into Sunday, tropical storm Ophelia will weaken as it slowly moves north into the remainder of the mid Atlantic region. While surface and upper level ridging will remain in place, clouds, mainly of the mid and lower variety, will begin to spread from northeast to southwest from Ophelia into our eastern CWFA. Skies west will remain mostly clear west with some increase in clouds from the west expected later in the day on Sunday. After lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, highs on Sunday will range from the lower 70s east to the upper 70s/near 80 west.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The big question everyone has been asking.... When will we get measurable rainfall? Chances seem to be slightly more in our favor as we look deeper into the extended period, however, there still isn't a strong signal.

Bit of a complicated set up in store, so we'll do our best to work through it here looking from west to east. At the start of the extended there will be 1) an upper level closed low located over South Dakota, 2) an area ridging near the Hudson Bay, and 3). the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia being absorbed into the larger flow over Virginia.

Highest moisture content associated with Ophelia stays off to our east and, despite some clouds, precipitation chances remain pretty low for the beginning of the work week. Temperatures should be around average, if not slightly above, with Sunday night lows in the mid/upper 50s and highs on Monday in the mid/upper 70s.

As the low over the Dakotas migrates east, it pulls a swath of theta- e northward from the Gulf and moisture begins to return to the Ohio Valley in earnest. PWATs echo this, rising to somewhere over 1.0 inch (climatological average is around 0.85 in) and temperatures (particularly in our southern counties)
rise to the upper 70s/low 80s. As this system continues to work east, it rounds the base of the Hudson Bay high and will bring our highest chances (30-50%) of precipitation around mid-week.
With that being said, areas that receive rain still may only receive a quarter to half an inch over the course of a few days from Tuesday night through Thursday (for comparison: the last 14 days departure from normal is a deficit between 1-2 inches for most of the CWA).

Ensemble guidance suggests that this system is nudged east by ridging near the end of the period and dry conditions are likely to return.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep skies mainly clear across the terminals today, although some mid and high level clouds will try to encroach our eastern forecast area from tropical storm Ophelia affecting the mid Atlantic. High clouds moving in from the west should also thin with time. Winds will be from the northeast around 5 knots through sunrise, then increase between 10 and 12 knots by 16Z. Some gusts between 15 and 20 knots will be possible by then.

For tonight, winds will begin to diminish by 23Z (with gusts subsiding). Mid and high level clouds will slowly move from east to west overnight as the remains of Ophelia slowly move northward along the mid Atlantic coast.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Sunday night into Monday. MVFR conditions possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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