Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:08PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 10:33 AM CST (16:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:33AMMoonset 2:16PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, IL
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location: 39.88, -90.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 211619 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1019 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 1019 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

High pressure will provide sunny and calm conditions to most of central Illinois today. The exception will be along and south of a Macomb . to Springfield . to Effingham line where morning clouds will give way to afternoon sunshine. High temperatures will top out in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

UPDATE. Issued at 1019 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

1038mb high centered over east-central Illinois is providing abundant sunshine to much of the KILX CWA this morning. The exception is along and south of a Macomb . to Springfield . to Effingham line where an area of low clouds has advected northward on the back side of the high. Models are not handling the clouds particularly well: however, satellite trends suggest they will lift northward to near the Galesburg/Peoria/Decatur areas before gradually dissipating this afternoon. Have updated the forecast to carry overcast conditions across the W/SW CWA through early afternoon, followed by a return to mostly sunny conditions through the remainder of the day. High temperatures will rise into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 254 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

High surface pressure centered just west of Illinois early this morning will progress eastward across the state today. Residual low level clouds in southeast Illinois will finally depart to the east as the ridge axis reaches western Illinois this morning. Sunny skies should prevail today as a result, with a 5-7 degree uptick in highs over yesterday. Afternoon temps should top out in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the help of a wind shift from N-NW to the S-SW this afternoon after the ridge axis advances into eastern Illinois.

Some increase in high clouds is projected for tonight as the southerly flow increases through a deeper layer, tapping into moisture from the southern Plains. Low temps will likely remain in the 20s overnight, due to wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph and a layer of high clouds.

Wednesday still looks to be a dry day, with thickening cloud cover ahead of the next long wave trough. Phasing energy from the northern and southern streams appears to be slightly slower with the 00z model runs, so most of the area should remain dry through sunset on Wednesday. A few light rain or snow showers could approach Galesburg to Rushville, but a dry sub-cloud layer should preclude much precip from reaching the ground until Wed night. Highs on Wed will reach above freezing in our entire CWA, with middle 30s the prevailing afternoon temps.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 256 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

Wednesday night, surface high will extend from New England back across the mid Mississippi Valley while aloft, longwave troughing is shifting east across the Great Plains. Precip chances will increase associated with a broad corridor of mid level warm air advection in advance of the upper trough, as well as a lead shortwave lifting from the base of the trough. Forecast soundings indicate antecedent deep dry layer will be in place as these features move overhead. PoPs gradually spread east towards the I-57 corridor Wednesday night as the columns slowly saturates. Temperatures do appear cold enough to primarily snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning for locations that do see snow, and could see some modest accumulations during this time.

A second and stronger shortwave will dig across the central Plains on Thursday, eventually closing off at 500mb Thursday evening as it digs east across the mid Mississippi Valley and along the Ohio Valley. Higher and more widespread precip chances will accompany this second wave. 00Z GFS is a northerly outlier as far as the low track with better agreement between the 00Z ECMWF/GEM along with the end of the NAM run. Temperatures do remain warm enough in the low and mid levels to bring p-type concerns at times. Snow is most favored in the NW counties of the forecast area with more rain in the SE. Cannot rule out some sleet and freezing rain at times in the transition zones, though confidence in placement and timing remains uncertain. Additional light snow accumulations are expected. At this point, 1 to 4 inches of snow appears possible Wednesday night through Friday across areas west of I-57 with lesser amounts to the east. There remains considerable uncertainty in the thermal profiles, though, so these numbers will likely shift as details come into better focus.

Precip chances shift east on Saturday and expect dry and more mild weather to return through early next week as transient upper ridge moves across the region. Overall pattern remains progressive and active, though, with additional chances for precip Tuesday through midweek.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

Low VFR clouds have moved south of the terminal sites, and no cloud ceilings of significance are expected through 12z tomorrow. High surface pressure will advance east across Illinois today, causing light and variable winds this morning under the ridge axis. As the high shifts farther east into Indiana, surface winds will increase from the SW and then S in central IL. Wind speeds this evening are expected to increase to around 10kt from the south, as pressure falls begin to increase ahead of the next storm system.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

UPDATE . Barnes SYNOPSIS . Barnes SHORT TERM . Shimon LONG TERM . Deubelbeiss AVIATION . Shimon


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Municipal Airport, IL12 mi59 minS 75.00 miFog/Mist17°F15°F93%1037.6 hPa
Springfield - Abraham Lincoln Capital Airport, IL20 mi42 minS 65.00 miFog/Mist20°F16°F85%1038.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIJX

Wind History from IJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3W4NW6NW4N6N6NW4CalmNW4NW7NW4CalmNW3CalmSW3CalmNW5NW3W4W4NW3SW4S6S5
1 day agoW13
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W11W11NW9NW10NW11NW9NW7NW7NW6NW3NW4W4NW4NW3W5NW5NW4N4
2 days agoW18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.