Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:33PM Sunday July 5, 2020 1:56 PM CDT (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:20PMMoonset 4:52AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, IL
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location: 39.88, -90.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 051715 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible for the next few days, though many areas will remain dry. Hot and increasingly humid conditions will dominate the upcoming week.

UPDATE. Issued at 950 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Bumped up temperatures a couple degrees in the latest update, based on performance over the last couple days and the lack of an air mass change in the interim. Little cloud cover so far this morning, and temperatures most areas are already 80-85 degrees on the 9 am observations. Rain trends look good this afternoon as isolated pop-up showers/storms form, but with no real trigger mechanism other than small, weak boundaries, little movement is expected. Main question will be whether or not to linger them into the evening, as some of the latest high-res guidance keeps them going past sunset. Will monitor the evolution over the next few hours, to see if the evening addition is warranted.

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Stagnant summer pattern remains locked in place across the central CONUS. Broad upper ridging occupied the central U.S., while at the surface 1016 mb high pressure was located over the lower Great Lakes.

Expanded 20 pops for isolated thunderstorms over most of the CWA this afternoon. This due to a subtle vort max crossing central IL, and less CINH than we've seen the past few days. CAMs point to a few small convergent boundaries that may initiate the isolated storms. Any storms will be slow moving due to weak steering flow under the ridge. Highs to again top out in the lower 90s with peak afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s. Isolated storms should diminish by early evening, leaving mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

High pressure currently over the Great Lakes will gradually shift southeast into the upper Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. This will allow the very light northeast flow that has dominated the region for several days, to veer southeast Monday, then eventually southwest by midweek. This will act to increase dewpoints into the lower 70s area-wide, along with an overall low level moisture increase which will push PWs up near 1.75" on Monday and remain near that level through the week. Thus isolated to scattered storms most common during peak heating, will be around through the first half of the week. Due to the weak winds aloft, storm motion will be slow, so given high PW and CAPE these storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours. Even so, many areas will remain dry due to the lack of large scale forcing which will limit areal extent of the storms. For Thursday and Friday, a low amplitude mid level wave will buckle the persistent upper ridge, and this could open the area up to more widespread convection/MCS activity from the northwest. This leads to high chance pops for Thursday and Friday.

Not accounting for convection, temperatures look to stay consistent through the week, with highs 90-95 and lows 70-75. Dewpoints will also be fairly steady in a 70-75 degree range, producing daily peak afternoon heat indices of 95-100.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Fairly uniform conditions expected the next 24 hours, with scattered diurnal clouds around 5,000 feet and a generally northeast wind flow around 5 knots or less. Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during the afternoon, but the sparse nature of them makes it difficult to include in the TAF's at this point. Will monitor and amend if the random-forming storms make it close enough to the forecast point.

Other concern will be with potential for lower visibilities toward sunrise. KPIA/KSPI went down fairly low early this morning, though the lingering smoke factor may have played a role. However, with the stagnant air mass and local terrain factors, will include a TEMPO mention for some lower MVFR conditions at these sites.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

UPDATE . Geelhart SYNOPSIS . 25 SHORT TERM . 25 LONG TERM . 25 AVIATION . Geelhart


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Municipal Airport, IL12 mi62 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F70°F57%1015.9 hPa
Springfield - Abraham Lincoln Capital Airport, IL20 mi65 minENE 810.00 miA Few Clouds91°F68°F47%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIJX

Wind History from IJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4CalmNE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE4N5
1 day agoNE6CalmSE6N4N3NW3CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmE4E3E3CalmE5E5E5SE6E5E5
2 days agoE5E5E12E9NE7NE5CalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmNE5E6NE5E6E3NE5NE4NE6E6NE8E7N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.