Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leisuree, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:04PM Sunday August 9, 2020 5:11 AM EDT (09:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:18PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Today..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy dense fog early this morning. Patchy fog late this morning. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 401 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will shift off shore later today. A series of weak lows will bring chances for showers and storms starting Tuesday. A cold front is expected to approach the region Thursday into Friday, but may stall north of our area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisuree, NJ
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location: 39.9, -74.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 090745 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 345 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift off shore later today. A series of weak lows will bring chances for showers and storms starting Tuesday. A cold front is expected to approach the region Thursday into Friday, but may stall north of our area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Morning fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning as the mixing level increases.

Expecting mostly dry conditions through the day. However, a weak mid level shortwave trough is expected to cross the region The lift associated with this feature is rather weak, and moisture above the boundary layer remains lower than what we've seen the last several days, so I expect that any showers or storms will be isolated. Thus, have included a slight chance of showers and storms, primarily west of the 95 corridor.

Thanks to weak low level southwesterly flow, we'll see a modest warming trend today, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. The mid level short wave trough will be slow to exit the region. However, I don't expect showers and storms to linger much past sunset thanks to limited instability. However, it may help to limit the extent of fog (as compared to what we saw Sunday morning). Although the ground remains saturated in several locations, the lack of subsidence above the boundary layer may help to limit widespread fog and low stratus development. However, with low dew point depressions, patchy fog will be possible, especially in river valleys.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Overview:

No period looks completely dry in the long term. However, it doesn't look like we will have widespread chances for showers and storms until at least Thursday or Friday.

Details:

Monday . A low and mid level trough over the Ohio Valley could bring isolated showers and storms to the western portions of our region Monday afternoon, but most of the convection should stay to our northwest. The warming trend continues with may locations getting back into the lower 90s once again.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Two weak troughs ahead of the main cold front (more on that below) could result in showers and storms each afternoon. As mentioned by the previous shift, with abundant low level moisture in place, even weak lift could result in convective initiation. While highs each day should be at or even a few degrees lower than Monday's highs, increasing low level moisture will result in heat index values generally in the upper 90s.

Thursday through Saturday . There remains poor agreement among guidance and from run to run on the details of how the pattern will evolve at the end of the week. In the mid and upper levels, the low over Central Canada should finally start to progress east. However, at least one operational model shows the main trough digging towards our region, becoming positively tilted and stalling, which seems unlikely with the larger pattern. Other models show that trough staying well to our north with a weak southern stream low pressure system lifting into our region from the mid Mississippi Valley. With so much uncertainty in how the mid and upper level pattern will develop, other details, including timing and how far south the cold front will get before stalling, remain quite uncertain. However, even if the front stalls northwest of our region, it could be close enough to bring the next chance for a widespread rain for our region. A this point, the most likely time period for this looks to be Thursday into Friday. Given the uncertainty, have gone with a blend of guidance and the previous forecast through this period.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This morning . visibility and ceiling restrictions to LIFR are possible with both fog and low clouds. Expect the worst conditions to occur at KACY and KMIV, but the rest of the TAF sites could see periods of IFR conditions as well. Mostly light and variable winds. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on details including timing of the lowest conditions.

Today . Once the morning fog dissipates, expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Winds mostly light southwesterly, but southerly or even southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 kt are possible behind a sea breeze. The sea breeze is likely to affect KACY, however it is unclear how much further inland it will reach. High confidence on all aspects except the sea breeze.

Tonight . Starting VFR. However, another round of fog is possible, reducing conditions to MVFR or even lower, generally after 06Z. Light and variable winds. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the details of the fog.

Outlook .

Monday . Mostly VFR conditions are expected. There is a slight chance for afternoon showers and storms at KABE and KRDG. Southwesterly winds 5 to 15 kt. High confidence.

Monday night . Mostly VFR conditions expected, but patchy fog may result in MVFR or even IFR conditions. Light southerly winds. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the fog potential.

Tuesday through Wednesday night . Mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the afternoon each day which could result in brief MVFR conditions. Southerly winds up to 10 kt. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for storms at the TAF sites.

Thursday . Starting with VFR conditions. MVFR or even IFR conditions may develop by Thursday afternoon as the chance for showers and thunderstorms increase. Southeasterly winds 10 kt or less. Low confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Patchy fog is possible right along the coast both this morning and again late tonight.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Thursday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. Thunderstorms are possible, especially towards the end of the week, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents . There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Sunday and Monday. Weather conditions and waves should be similar on both days. No precipitation is anticipated. The wind is expected to favor the southeast and south at 5 to 10 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ012>014- 016>027. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Johnson Marine . Johnson Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 15 mi96 min S 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 72°F1020.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 17 mi60 min S 1.9 G 2.9 70°F 73°F1020.8 hPa
BDSP1 21 mi54 min 72°F 1020.6 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 24 mi54 min 72°F 75°F1019.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi42 min Calm 69°F 1021 hPa68°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 38 mi54 min 73°F 80°F1020.1 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 40 mi54 min 71°F 71°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ10 mi16 minS 310.00 miFair67°F66°F100%1020.2 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA21 mi18 minN 010.00 miFair70°F70°F100%1020.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi72 minno data9.00 miA Few Clouds0°F0°F%1020.3 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi16 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F64°F96%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVAY

Wind History from VAY (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Wildwood Crest, ocean pier, New Jersey
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Wildwood Crest
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:23 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.443.22.11.20.60.50.81.62.63.43.94.34.23.62.71.91.41.11.21.72.43.23.7

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:10 AM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:30 AM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:35 PM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.40.71.41.20.70.3-0.5-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.4-1-0.70.21.11.20.80.5-0-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.