Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leisuree, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 5:59PM Sunday March 7, 2021 11:13 PM EST (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:44AMMoonset 1:00PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 /o.exp.kphi.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-210222t2115z/ 414 Pm Est Mon Feb 22 2021
.the special marine warning will expire at 415 pm est... The affected areas were... Coastal waters from manasquan inlet nj to cape henlopen de out 20 nm... Outer waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de out 20 to 40 nm... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 3905 7368 3882 7392 3868 7415 3879 7458 4017 7357 3986 7333 3960 7332 time...mot...loc 2113z 280deg 23kt 3999 7310 3877 7399
ANZ400 1004 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure and dry weather will dominate through most of the new week, with a warming trend. A cold front will approach and cross through the region Friday or Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisuree, NJ
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location: 39.9, -74.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 080202 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 902 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure and dry weather will dominate through most of the new week, with a warming trend. A cold front will approach and cross through the region Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure extended from the lower Mississippi River Valley northeastward to Quebec this evening. The axis of the ridge will continue to slide to the east overnight and on Monday. The air mass will bring cold dry weather to our region.

A light and variable wind is expected overnight under a clear sky. The conditions will allow temperatures to drop into the teens and lower 20s at most locations.

A mostly sunny sky is anticipated for Monday along with a northwest to west wind 5 to 10 MPH. Temperatures will remain chilly with highs mostly in the lower and middle 40s. Readings should not get above the 30s in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey. The expected temperatures are about 5 or 6 degrees below normal for March 8th.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The well-advertised and long awaited warm-up finally arrives during the midweek period. The forecast philosophy for this period is largely unchanged, as troughing departs offshore and strong ridging builds into the East. A large center of surface high pressure will gradually shift from over the Southeast out into the western Atlantic This ridging and high pressure dominated pattern will send temperatures rising and leave our region far removed from any chance of precipitation.

Tuesday will begin seasonably chilly, but sunshine and dry air will promote efficient heating. The air mass won't yet be quite warm enough to support the level of warmth expected later in the week. But it will still be a pleasant day and a big departure from the recent lengthy stretch of colder than normal days. Highs will rise into the upper 50s and low 60s, a good 10 degrees above average with light westerly winds. Lows Tuesday night won't be cold as previous nights, but we will still radiate well and fall back into the 30s.

On Wednesday, we again see sunny skies and dry air, and the air mass will have warmed a little further. Because of that, many areas will see highs in the 60s on Wednesday, with some mid 60s expected. One difference for Wednesday, and a bit of a change from previous cycles, is that the wind direction looks more due southerly or even a bit east of south for most of the day, as opposed to west of south. This will yield temperatures several degrees cooler near the coast, especially eastern Monmouth and Ocean counties.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overview .

Unseasonably warm weather continues into the end of the work week as strong ridging remains in place over the East. Warm conditions will remain in place as long as our region stays south of a sharp frontal zone dividing the warmer air over us from much colder air to the north. Trends last night and today have been to keep that frontal zone north of us for longer and to amplify the Eastern ridge a little more. This means conditions could become even a little warmer than had already been expected late this week, with 70 degree readings becoming a real possibility for Thursday and Friday in some areas. By next weekend, it still looks like the front will drift far enough south to move through the region, bringing much cooler temperatures.

As with the temperatures, precipitation chances will be closely tied to the approach of the front. No measurable precipitation is expected through Thursday. Showery weather associated with the front could arrive across the northwestern zones as early as Thursday night, but more likely will hold off until later Friday or Friday night. But even once the front arrives, precipitation should be on the light side.

Dailies .

Thursday-Friday . The warm spell continues, and becomes even more pronounced heading towards the end of the week. Ridging over the East reaches its maximum strength, and temperatures aloft continue to warm. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday in many ways, and with the air mass a little warmer we will likely break into the upper 60s in many areas, and may touch 70 in a few spots. The ocean influence should be lesser on Thursday with a southwest flow, so the coastal cooling effect will not be as pronounced. One note on Thursday's forecast, is that winds are trending a bit higher, with southwesterly gusts of 20 to 25 mph looking possible, and minimum RH values are forecast to be near 40%. So combined with the warm temperatures and very lengthy dry spell, this will at least be pushing us close to fire weather thresholds, and we will likely be in coordination with our partners.

For Friday, there continue to be some timing differences with the approaching cold front. The EC has been more progressive than the GFS in bringing the front through, but the overall trend the past couple of cycles has been a bit slower on its passage, keeping us in the warmer air mass. If the front stays far enough north, Friday could be the warmest day of the week especially in southern areas, and have forecast highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Uncertainty is still a little higher on Friday, as numbers could be cooler if the front starts to move in sooner, or could even be a little warmer with more widespread low 70s if it stays safely north. In addition, continuing to mention a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon, for most of the region given the possibility that the front could be close enough for this to occur.

Saturday-Sunday . By the weekend, it is likely that the cold front dropping down from the north-northwest will have moved through, though some guidance suggests it may stall over or just south of the region. Either way, temperatures on Saturday appear likely to fall back towards normal levels, and may drop below normal by Sunday. With the possibility of the front still being nearby, maintained generic slgt chc to low end chc PoPs for the weekend, with no use at this stage trying to time the best chances. Any precipitation over the weekend continues to look light.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR under a clear sky. Variable wind 6 knots or less. High confidence.

Monday . VFR under a mostly clear sky. Northwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Monday night . VFR. Southwest wind around 5 kt. High confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt gradually shifting to west-northwest through the day, then light and variable overnight. High confidence.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . VFR. Light winds become southeasterly Wednesday morning, then gradually shift to southerly and south- southwesterly through the day and night with speeds of 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Thursday-Friday . VFR. Southwest wind 10 to 15 kt. High confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions expected on the coastal waters and across the bay as northwest flow continues with gusts generally at 15 knots or less. Seas from 1 to 3 feet. Seas could be somewhat choppy with short periods of 3 to 4 seconds the through Monday.

Outlook .

Monday night-Wednesday night . No marine headlines are anticipated. Several wind shifts through the period with gusts 20 kt or less. Seas 1 to 3 ft. Fair weather.

Thursday-Thursday night . SCA criteria may be approached as southwest winds gust close to 25 kt and seas build to 4 to 5 ft.

FIRE WEATHER. A prolonged dry period will remain in place over the region, so there will be continued monitoring for fire weather potential this week. Winds appear low enough to preclude any fire weather concerns through at least Wednesday. Monday should have fairly dry conditions with RH levels dropping to below 40%. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similarly dry and also much warmer than normal with highs in the 60s. By Thursday, a combination of warm temperatures, breezier conditions, and RH levels near 40% may lead to an increase in fire weather concerns.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.



Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Iovino Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Iovino/O'Brien Marine . Deal/O'Brien Fire Weather . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 15 mi98 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 35°F 38°F1029.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 17 mi56 min N 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 38°F1029.9 hPa
BDSP1 21 mi56 min 35°F 42°F1029.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 24 mi56 min 36°F 40°F1029.5 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi104 min SSE 1.9 29°F 1029 hPa25°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 38 mi56 min 35°F 41°F1029.4 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 40 mi56 min 37°F 40°F1030 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ8 mi20 minN 610.00 miFair30°F15°F54%1029.9 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ10 mi18 minN 710.00 miFair27°F14°F58%1029.6 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA21 mi20 minN 510.00 miFair29°F14°F54%1030.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi74 minWNW 410.00 miFair26°F15°F63%1029 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi18 minNW 310.00 miFair29°F15°F56%1030.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVAY

Wind History from VAY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N84NW7
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1 day agoW6W10W8W6W5W6W5W6W6NW11
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5NW5N4NE3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Wildwood Crest, ocean pier, New Jersey
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Wildwood Crest
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Sun -- 01:56 AM EST     4.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:31 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:50 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.74.44.64.33.52.61.710.40.30.81.62.53.23.73.73.22.51.81.10.60.40.81.7

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:22 AM EST     1.93 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:46 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:05 PM EST     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:14 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:01 PM EST     1.49 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:19 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-1.7-1.3-0.411.91.81.50.9-0.3-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.4-0.30.91.41.51.30.4-0.8-1.6

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