Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leisuree, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:45PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 12:36 AM EDT (04:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 3:25AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1007 Pm Edt Tue Apr 20 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers early in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt late in the evening, then diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight, becoming W 25 to 30 kt late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Thu..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1006 Pm Edt Tue Apr 20 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will remain nearly stalled to our northwest through tonight. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front tonight and Wednesday, causing the strong cold front to move through on Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will then steadily build in through Saturday before shifting offshore. Another storm system, in the form of a coastal low, will affect the area this weekend. That system should depart later on Sunday with high pressure to follow early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisuree, NJ
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location: 39.9, -74.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 210052 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 852 PM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will remain nearly stalled to our northwest through tonight. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front tonight and Wednesday, causing the strong cold front to move through on Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will then steadily build in through Saturday before shifting offshore. Another storm system, in the form of a coastal low, will affect the area this weekend. That system should depart later on Sunday with high pressure to follow early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure off the Carolina coast will continue to drift out to sea tonight. Return flow sets up behind the departing high, and surface dew points will begin to creep up through the overnight. Deep trough currently over the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes will track east tonight, and a wave of low pressure will develop over the Ohio valley and southern Appalachians this evening. That low passes to the north and east tonight, and a strong cold front develops behind the departing low. That cold front will track east during the day Wednesday.

Southwesterly winds will gradually diminish through the remainder of the evening with loss of diurnal heating. Winds should begin to increase again before daybreak as the LLJ begins ramping up overnight. This will also result in surface dewpoints rising as well.

One weak wave of low pressure will pass through eastern Pennsylvania and the southern Poconos prior to midnight. Some showers are possible in the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and far northwest New Jersey prior to midnight, but will keep PoPs capped at slight chance, and will mention sprinkles, as it will still be quite dry. Some light showers may continue over the far north and west through the overnight.

The main story will be during the day Wednesday. A stronger area of low pressure will be over eastern pennsylvania and will lift into New York state, and then into New England Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon. A strong cold front develops behind the departing low, and that cold front will work its way through the region through the day Wednesday.

Ahead of the cold front, the local area will be in the warm sector, and with increasing southerly flow, low level moisture will increase over the region with surface dew points climbing into the 50s pretty much throughout. Will err on the higher side of guidance, closer to the NBM 90 percent, given that guidance tends to underperform in this type of regime. With abundant cloud cover over the region, temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday compared to today, with highs in the 60s to around 70.

SB CAPE values will be upwards of 500-1000 J/kg, and ML MUCAPE values will be even slightly higher than that. 0-6 km Bulk Shear will also be around 55-60 kt.

Models indicating a squall line developing over central Pennsylvania just ahead of the cold front, and that line tracks east fairly quickly, and will be over the Delaware Valley by midday, and then off the New Jersey coast by the evening commute. Have adjusted PoP to account for this guidance trend indicating an overall faster progression of the convection. Damaging winds and small hail can be expected with the stronger storms. Given the "skinny CAPE" profiles shown in BUFKIT, it is possible that storms will not produce much lightning.

PWATs will be around 3/4-1 inch. But with high shear and low level jet of 35-40 kt, the line should move through fairly quickly. Although some brief, locally heavy rain is possible with the passage of the developing squall line, not expecting widespread flash flooding. It has also been quite dry, so the rivers and streams will be able to handle the rain. Cannot rule out some poor drainage flooding.

Behind the cold front, winds abruptly shift to the west and increase to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, and strong CAA will be underway. Temperatures will fall sharply from the 60s to around 70 to the 40s and 50s immediately behind the cold front during the mid to late afternoon.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. This period will be spent in the wake of the departing storm system from Wednesday. Low pressure will continue to rapidly intensify, possibly even reaching bomb criteria, as it pulls away into northern New England and far southeast Canada Wednesday night. Meanwhile, high pressure will gradually shift out of the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley region. For us, it's a classic cold advection regime, with mainly dry but colder and windier weather expected.

Cold air will be pouring into the region on Wednesday night behind the strong cold front and probable daytime convection. We have issued a Freeze Watch for the areas most likely to experience a freeze, and will continue watching both strong wind potential and freeze concerns. For the winds, we will face the usual question for overnight wind events as to what extent the boundary layer stabilizes. Guidance is in agreement that the best mixing will be during the first half of the night, with some stabilization more likely later in the night. But even the better mixed BUFKIT profiles do not indicate advisory level winds, with gusts more in the 30 to 35 mph range earlier in the night and decreasing a bit later on. Regarding temperatures, it will be a night of strong CAA, and will feel quite wintry with the wind chill becoming a factor. However, guidance often forecasts temperatures that are too cold in these scenarios due to the strong mixing. We expect lows in the 30s, and wind chills in the 20s, with areas along and northwest of the Fall Line having the best chance to go below freezing. The frost/freeze program is now active in all zones except Carbon and Monroe Counties. The Freeze Watch will likely need to be upgraded to a Freeze Warning for some or most areas, but it will likely be marginal with minimum temperatures in the low 30s. Given the winds, no concern for frost on Wednesday night. A passing shower, which would likely be in the form of snow, is possible in the Poconos.

Thursday should feature a good deal of sunshine at least to start, though steep lapse rates, diurnal mixing, and an approaching shortwave will likely promote an increase in afternoon stratocu especially to the north. Winds aloft relax a good deal for most of the day Thursday, in advance of the shortwave approaching late in the day. It will still be quite breezy with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph for much of the day. As that trailing shortwave approaches and passes overhead, a period of slightly higher winds, perhaps with some gusts near 40 mph, is possible late in the day. At this point it appears we will remain shy of Wind Advisory criteria, but it will definitely be a breezy day. The northwest flow will continue to draw in cool Canadian air, and highs Thursday will only be in the upper 40s to at best mid 50s, quite cold for the season. In the event that rainfall on Wednesday underperforms, may also need to give consideration to fire weather concerns on Thursday with RH values dropping near to below 30%.

Thursday night looks similar to Wednesday night, but likely a couple of degrees warmer. Winds will be strongest early, but diminish considerably with time as winds aloft weaken and the boundary layer stabilizes. The slightly warmer lows should generally preclude freeze concerns, and the winds remain too strong for frost.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overview .

A progressive pattern dominates for most of the long term, with some hints of a renewed blocking pattern developing across the CONUS by next week. We begin the period still feeling the effects of the strong storm system from midweek, but high pressure will continue building in through Saturday. Our next storm system comes late Saturday into Sunday, with rain likely. Early indications are for ridging and high pressure to dominate the East Coast much of next week, potentially bringing a stretch of pleasant weather to the area.

Dailies .

Friday-Friday night . We remain in a west-northwest flow regime on Friday between the low to our northeast and the high to our southwest. Pressure gradients relax, but we'll still see wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph especially from morning through mid afternoon. The air mass also warms considerably versus the chilly weather on Thursday, with highs getting back into the 60s. Meteorologically, with another day of low humidities and the continued breezy conditions, Friday looks quite concerning from a fire weather perspective. We will likely be in coordination with our state partners regarding possible headlines, which may again be somewhat dependent on Wednesday's rainfall. Dry and cool conditions for the overnight with winds relaxing significantly.

Saturday-Sunday . High pressure will be shifting off the Southeast coast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a pair of shortwaves will approach from the west. These shortwaves will likely phase and lead to strengthening low pressure tracking over or close to the region by Saturday night, bringing rain to the local area. The trend has been to bring this system in a little faster, with rain potentially moving in by late Saturday afternoon. Most of Saturday still looks quite nice, with increasing clouds but mild temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60s, locally near 70. Rain should overspread from southwest to northeast from very late Saturday afternoon through the evening hours, becoming steady and perhaps heavy at times for the later evening and much of the overnight. While the faster trend may mean rain creeping in by late Saturday, it also improves the chances of drying out earlier on Sunday. Rain should mostly come to an end before noon, especially to the south, with some afternoon clearing likely. Given its progressive nature, this should be more of a beneficial rain than anything, with rain amounts on either side of an inch. Depending on how quickly the low intensifies, may also have to monitor for gusty winds on Sunday afternoon and evening. Latest trends seem to be a little slower with the phasing and intensification, which likely directly relates to the trend to bring the system itself through faster. But as it is several days away, we will continue to monitor.

Sunday night-Tuesday . As mentioned, the upper level pattern will likely turn less progressive early next week once the weekend storm pulls away. Indications are for ridging to develop over the East Coast with a possible omega block pattern taking shape. If that is how it plays out, with our region under the ridging portion of the block, then we may see a lengthy stretch of dry and tranquil weather with a warming trend next week. Possibly something to look forward to after a bit of an unsettled stretch.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR. Low chances for -SHRA at KRDG/KABE tonight, but restrictions not expected. Southerly winds around 10 kts or less once any residual gustiness drops off through 03Z. Winds at 2000 kt will increase to around 30-40 kts resulting in some LLWS, but surface winds should remain high enough to preclude a TAF mention. High confidence.

Wednesday . Prevailing VFR and breezy conditions. A line of thunderstorms will develop ahead of a strong cold front and will pass through the terminals between around 17Z at RDG/ABE, 18Z at ILG/PHL/PNE/TTN, and 19Z at MIV/ACY. Temporary MVFR/IFR restrictions will develop in convection and have be covered with TEMPO groups for the 00Z TAF issuance. South to southwesterly winds increasing to around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, abruptly shifting to the W/NW in the afternoon with gusts increasing up to around 30 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday night-Thursday . VFR. Breezy. West-northwest winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts of 30 to 35 kt. High confidence.

Thursday night-Friday night . VFR. Continued west or west-northwest winds with speeds of 10 to 15 kt and gusts to 25 kt, but diminishing significantly on Friday night. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR. CIGs will likely begin to develop and gradually lower in the afternoon. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Saturday night . Initially VFR, but quickly becoming MVFR then IFR with rain, heavy at times. Winds gradually shifting from south to southeast to northeast at 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Initially IFR with rain. Improvement is likely by afternoon. Northeast winds of 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest and increasing to 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions tonight, though SW winds will average 15-20 kt. Seas will build to 2-4 feet. On Wednesday, SW winds increase to 15- 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas on the ocean will build to 3-5 feet. A SCA is in effect starting Wednesday morning. A line of thunderstorms will affect DE Bay in the late morning/early afternoon, and then the ocean waters during the mid to late afternoon. VSBY restriction expected, as well as winds gusting over 40 kt and small hail possible. Isolated lightning strikes possible.

Winds abruptly shift to the west/northwest behind the thunderstorms and increase to 20-30 kt over DE Bay by midday, and then over the ocean by late afternoon. Prevailing gale force gusts developing into the evening.

Outlook .

Wednesday night-Thursday night . West-northwesterly gale force winds are expected. The wind may ebb and flow, with occasional periods of gusts below gale force, but the gales should be prevailing with gusts mostly around 35 kt or a bit higher. By Thursday night, conditions should subside to SCA levels as gusts fall to around 30 kt. Seas mostly 4 to 5 ft.

Friday . SCA conditions are expected as westerly winds gust around 25 kt. By mid to late afternoon, conditions may subside below SCA levels, especially on Delaware Bay. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Friday night-Saturday . Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Saturday night-Sunday . Marine headlines are likely by later Saturday night and into Sunday as a storm system with rain affects the region.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for PAZ060>062-103-105. NJ . Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NJZ001-007>010. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ430-431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . MPS/Staarmann Short Term . O'Brien/Staarmann Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . MPS/O'Brien/Staarmann Marine . MPS/O'Brien/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 15 mi61 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 61°F 55°F1011.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 17 mi49 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 59°F 55°F1012.2 hPa
BDSP1 21 mi49 min 61°F 57°F1011.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 24 mi49 min 60°F 57°F1011.3 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi67 min E 12 57°F 1014 hPa44°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 38 mi49 min 60°F 57°F1011 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 40 mi49 min 54°F 52°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ8 mi43 minVar 510.00 miFair59°F41°F51%1011.7 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ10 mi41 minSSW 1010.00 miFair56°F38°F50%1011.8 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA21 mi43 minVar 410.00 miFair60°F42°F52%1012 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi37 minS 1010.00 miFair70°F39°F32%1011.7 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi41 minS 910.00 miFair56°F40°F55%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVAY

Wind History from VAY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmW5SW5SW8SW635SW5CalmCalmSW4SW3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Wildwood Crest, ocean pier, New Jersey
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Wildwood Crest
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Wed -- 02:31 AM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.94.24.23.93.12.31.71.20.90.81.322.93.53.83.83.42.721.4111.4

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:53 AM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:39 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:19 PM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.5-1.3-1-0.60.41.31.40.90.6-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.6-1.6-1.5-1.3-0.70.51.21.110.6-0.3

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