Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seaside Park, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of early this morning, the warm front which will ever so gradually shift north of the region over the next 24-36 hours remains south of the region closer to Norfolk VA. Expect it to push northward significantly today, reaching near Philadelphia, before stalling again tonight. A final push northward which will bring it clear of our region is expected Wednesday morning.

For areas north of the front, it will be a struggle to get rid of the showery/drizzly/misty weather we've been seeing, and temps will struggle to rise. Allow much of the area to push into the 70s today, but this may ultimately depend on where the front ends up, and given high uncertainty about its ability to pass north of Philly, its possible northern areas such as the Lehigh Valley and northern/central NJ will see temps fail to reach 70.
Further south, with the front likely to clear most of Delaware and eastern Maryland, temps shouldn't have much difficulty blasting past 70 and stand a chance of reaching 80.

Tonight, as the front potentially stalls again for a time, expect some patchy fog/drizzle esp. mainly north and east of Philly. Lows will be mostly in the 60s, with low-mid 60s north and east of Philly and upper 60s to near 70 south and west.

Through the entire period, we'll continue to need to watch for spotty showers from dying convection approaching from the south and west. Overall this mainly impacts locations north and west of Philly/I-95 corridor, but a few might make it further southeast. First band of these will move through early this morning, then potentially several more during the afternoon and evening today.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread the area through the day on Wednesday, with a subtle shortwave axis likely to shift northeastward across southeastern portions of the region into the afternoon hours before sliding offshore sometime in the evening.

Surface pressure will be fairly high to start the day Wednesday due to the influence of the strong Bermuda High over the Atlantic. However, gradual pressure falls are anticipated through the day as a surface cyclone tracks through the Great Lakes and the influence of the Bermuda High lessens some.

While there will not be a particularly tight pressure gradient, the surface pattern will support warm and moist southwesterly flow at the surface. While at least some cloud cover is likely, temperatures will still warm up quite a bit during the afternoon, particularly along and southeast of the I-95 corridor.

There are two primary concerns with Wednesday's forecast:

The first is dangerous heat. Afternoon highs look to generally be in the low-mid 80s across eastern PA and northern NJ, however, temperatures could climb to near 90 across the Philly metro, southern NJ, and the Delmarva. Dewpoints will generally be in the low 70s, although some mixing is likely in areas that see the strongest surface heating. Regardless, the combination of temperatures near 90 and high relative humidity could lead to heat indices in the mid-upper 90s across these areas.

The second is the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. While forcing for ascent will be somewhat nebulous, the combination of the passing weak shortwave and strong surface heating should be enough to allow for widely scattered storms to develop during the afternoon hours. Deep layer shear will support storm organization into multicells and perhaps transient supercell structures. The extent of severe weather potential will depend, in part, on the degree of vertical mixing that takes place during the afternoon. Regardless, forecast soundings across the area indicate that the environment will be at least moderately unstable and wind fields will be strong enough to support a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail with any stronger storms. In addition, high PWATs exceeding 2" will be present, so any storms will likely be efficient heavy rainfall producers.

While the exact timing of the shortwave passage is uncertain, the convection is still expected to be strongly diurnally influenced. Storm coverage should decrease fairly rapidly after sunset Wednesday night. Partly cloudy skies are likely after storms diminish with continued warm and moist southwesterly flow. Wednesday night will likely be quite warm and muggy, with lows ranging from the upper 60s across eastern PA and northern NJ to the low-mid 70s across the Delmarva.

A more prominent shortwave axis will shift eastward across much of the Northeastern US on Thursday. A surface cyclone will track northeastward from the Great Lakes into Ontario and eventually Quebec by afternoon. A cold front will trail this cyclone and pass through the region Thursday afternoon and evening.

Ahead of this cold front, another day of dangerous heat is likely. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer Thursday than Wednesday areawide, and consequently a broader area of apparent temperatures rising into the mid-upper 90s is expected. In fact, heat indices could exceed 100 across portions of the Delmarva.

Scattered convection is also likely to develop along the cold front Thursday afternoon and evening as it tracks eastward across the area. While the overall ceiling for severe weather potential appears higher on Thursday than for Wednesday, some questions remain. Model discrepancies exist regarding the timing of the shortwave, surface cyclone, and cold front. While these discrepancies are generally not significant for being two days out, they will be consequential in determining the spatial and temporal details of the severe weather threat. For now, it should be noted that the environment ahead of the cold front is expected to be supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms, with the primary hazards being damaging winds and sporadic instances of marginally severe hail.

After the cold front clears the area Thursday night, a slight decrease in temperatures is expected, with temperatures generally falling into the low-mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Significant mid-level ridging will begin to take shape to our southwest across central and southeastern portions of the US heading into the weekend. It is not out of the question that northwesterly flow on the periphery of this expanding ridge could have a weak impulse or two provide parts of the area with low precipitation chances this weekend. Overall, however, high pressure will become firmly in control. The primary story in the extended period looks to be very warm temperatures during the late weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 12Z this morning...IFR/LIFR conditions with possible VLIFR at times. In addition to mist, patchy fog is possible as well, though KACY was the only terminal with high enough confidence to include in the TAF. East- northeast winds around 5 kt becoming LGT/VRB at times. Low- moderate confidence overall.

Today...LIFR/IFR conditions expected through the morning, lifting to IFR/MVFR in the afternoon. Periods of mist expected early, with a slight chance of showers during the afternoon.
Northeast winds will gradually become south-southeast around 3-8 kt. Low- moderate confidence.

Tonight...Intervals of IFR/LIFR in fog, stratus, and scattered SHRA. Low-moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions in the morning will likely give way to primarily VFR by the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening could lead to brief periods of sub-VFR conditions.
Expect VFR areawide Wednesday night.

Thursday through Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening could lead to brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Expect VFR areawide Thursday night.

Friday through Saturday...VFR.

MARINE
Periods of showers, drizzle, and mist to continue through tonight. Visibility near the coast is now down to 1 mile or less as of early this morning, so have issued a marine dense fog advisory until midday.

No marine wind/sea hazards are in effect through tonight. Winds will gradually turn from northeast to southeast today around 5-10 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...In general, Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated through the period with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon could briefly cause higher wind gusts and rough seas.

Rip Currents...

For today, winds turn to be a bit more east-southeasterly and decrease to around 10 MPH. Swell remains onshore but the number of swell groups look to consolidate with the period decreasing to 6-7 seconds. Breaking waves in the surf zone look to decrease to 2-3 feet as a result. The combination of these factors look to lead to a decreasing risk for the development of rip currents, so at this time a LOW risk is forecast for the beaches south of Atlantic City and MODERATE for the northern Jersey Shore beaches.

For Wednesday, winds increase to 10-15 mph with the swell period remaining around 6-7 seconds. However, winds and swell turn to become more shore parallel out of the south-southwest. As a result, breaking waves in the surf zone look to decrease to mainly 2 feet or less. Therefore, a LOW risk for the development of rip currents is forecast for all beaches on Wednesday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ430-431-450>455.