Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lochbuie, CO

DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/
Issued at 1215 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Current radar imagery shows a few strong thunderstorms lingering over Elbert and Lincoln counties as well as a couple of weak showers over the northern Colorado plains. Any storm that is able to strengthen over the next hour or two will be able to produce large hail and torrential rainfall. However, we believe the severe thunderstorm threat to be nearing its end for the night as mesoanalysis shows an overworked atmosphere and decreasing CAPE.
Areas of patchy fog will likely develop due to the low level moisture left over from today's convection and small dewpoint depressions.

Monday afternoon looks to be fairly quiet as a weak ridge builds over Colorado and subsidence gives way to mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal, with afternoon highs mainly in the low 70s at low elevations, and 50s-60s for the mountains. Model guidance suggests a weak shortwave grazing southeast Colorado Monday night as well as an increase in wind speeds at the 700mb level. Given the slightly above normal moisture already in the environment, few sprinkles over the plains cannot be ruled out late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The upper level ridge tracks east and flow aloft turns southwesterly on Tuesday. At least a few isolated showers seem possible over the high terrain due to the slight uptick in monsoonal moisture, with the plains remaining dry. One point of uncertainty for Tuesday is that model guidance suggests breezy southerly winds over eastern Colorado/western Kansas which could lead to a richer atmosphere for storm development, although instability should remain fairly limited.

A disturbance will track north from New Mexico onto Colorado on Wednesday, which will bring a better chance for showers and storms over the eastern Colorado plains in the late afternoon and evening. The mountains will see an increase in shower activity Wednesday afternoon as well, but it remains unclear whether any showers from the foothills would survive and make their way onto the Denver metro or if low level moisture will be transported west enough. Moisture will generally remain above normal through the entire forecast period, and models have been consistent in bringing precipitable water values that are at least 150% of normal to the region Wednesday through Friday. However, given the cooler temperatures expected to be in place, lifting mechanisms will be needed for meaningful rainfall to come to fruition.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/
Issued at 523 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Low to mid-level stratus, with variable bases between 020 and 060 and localized CIGS, are present across the Denver metro early this morning and will linger over or in the vicinity of the terminals through mid-morning (~15Z, +/- 1 hr). Latest observations from KAPA also indicate a patchy near-surface deck a few hundred feet above the ground, though don't believe this is widespread. With high clouds beginning to fill into the Front Range, it will be become harder to monitor this low-level stratus. Needless to say, cloud cover/CIG forecast is low confidence for the morning period.
Confidence in prevailing VFR conditions at the terminals rises past 15-16Z.

Once past this morning period, VFR conditions should prevail for the remainder of the TAF period at all terminals. No convective activity is expected today. As for winds, current light drainage wind will shift to prevailing east flow near midday, gradually veering towards southerly drainage again this evening.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.