Lochbuie, CO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lochbuie, CO

June 24, 2024 6:24 AM MDT (12:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM
Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 8:01 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 241134 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 534 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot with Heat Advisory Today and Tuesday for the Denver Metro.

- Slight cool down and increased chances for thunderstorms Wedneday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures across the plains are in the upper 60s to lower 70s F at 09Z this morning. That is a tad warmer then yesterday's readings were at this time. Current satellite pictures are showing fairly decent cloudiness over the southwestern U.S. and there are even some showers on area radars.

Models keep the upper ridge axis right over Colorado today and tonight. Both temperature and thickness fields point to afternoon highs to be a tad warmer today than yesterday. However, precipitable water proggs are in the 0.50 to 1.20 inches over the CWA today. CAPE values are fair. Most models are showing more cloudiness and convection for the CWA this afternoon compared to Sunday. Will leave the pops in the 20-40% range for most of the CWA this afternoon. Soundings show the storms will be pretty high based with limited rainfall but plenty of outflow wind.

Temperatures will still get hot this morning with few clouds around so the Heat Advisory is okay.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/
Issued at 235 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather Tuesday with another very warm day across the area. Highs across northeast Colorado are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s again. A weak cold front pushes south through the area during the mid to late afternoon hours. Expect temperatures to fall a few degrees behind it. However, it doesn't look like moisture increases with the front. The slightly cooler air may help stable's the airmass.
Still expected isolated/scattered high based showers and thunderstorms. However, coverage should be less than today.

The ridge shifts south a little for Wednesday. Subtropical moisture increases through the day with precipitable water values climbing to three-quarters over the higher terrain and above an inch over the lower elevations. This is about 120-180 percent of normal. Expect to see an increase in showers and thunderstorms, especially if a short wave trough moves across Colorado, like the 00Z GFS shows. Stronger thunderstorms will be possible with heavy rainfall and small hail. An isolated severe thunderstorm could occur over the plains where SBCAPE reaches 1000-2000 J/kg Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures won't be as hot with highs in the lower to mid 90s over northeast Colorado.

Upper level ridge continues to retreat to the south on Thursday.
Not much change to the airmass for Thursday with warm and moist conditions in place. Expected another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce heavy rain and small hail. Temperatures take a small step lower with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge will be well off to the southeast with westerly flow aloft. An upper level trough passes north of Colorado, but a cold front associated with this system dives south across Colorado bringing cooler temperatures for Saturday. Highs Saturday are expected to be the coolest this upcoming week with highs in the mid 80s. Airmass continues to be on the moist side both days. Saturday may end up capped, especially over the northeast plains. Will continue mentioning scattered showers and thunderstorms for both days, though have the lowest PoPs over the northeast plains on Saturday.

The ridge off the southeast strengthens and begins to move westward Sunday. Highs are expected to bounce back into the lower to mid 90s over northeast Colorado for Sunday. The airmass starts to dry out as well, thus will trend PoPs lower.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/
Issued at 533 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Fairly weak winds can be expected at DIA today. They will likely follow normal diurnal patterns. Will continue with the VCSH around mid afternoon with a TEMPO VRB18G36KT for outflow potential. There will be no ceiling issues.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ039.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ040.




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