Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lochbuie, CO

UPDATE
Issued at 255 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Sharp cold front had moved through Denver and most of the plains in these early morning hours. In the mountains, snow showers had been heavy at times starting late last evening, with most indications as of 3 am seeing 2-5" but locally 6-8+ in the northern Gore and Park Ranges. Once the current frontal enhancement moves through, the high country snow will taper down through the rest of the morning as drier air moves in. We'll keep the Winter Weather Advisory for the ongoing impacts into early this morning, but additional accumulations from this point forward will be less than 3 inches. As discussed yesterday, this arrival of drier air and strong mid level subsidence will be the limiting factor of snowfall in the plains, despite a shallow post-frontal upslope component. We do think at least flurries and areas of light snow will occur in most locations in the pre-dawn hours based on upstream observations, satellite imagery, and still some mid level moisture around. I am leaning slightly toward a light measurable snowfall in the pre-dawn hours, whether it be 0.1 inch or locally up to 0.5-1.0" under a narrow band of slightly heavier snowfall. It won't measure everywhere, but we think there's slightly better than 50/50 odds at this point considering the shallow upslope component - with the highest odds setting up from Boulder/Denver onto the adjacent plains of east central Colorado.
The airmass dries very quickly starting about 14Z so we should see a quick end to any light snow. The hazardous travel conditions in the mountains will improve with the end of snow and return of partial sunshine. Meanwhile, plains locations that see measurable snow will also see some slick spots, but once sun is up for a couple hours we should see sufficient solar insolation to melt/quickly dry roads where it does snow.

Regarding temperatures, winter arrives today with high temperatures staying at/below the freezing mark for the eastern plains. Return of sunshine (still a few high clouds) should help a few spots get just above freezing - mainly in the Denver to Ft Collins Corridor. Lows tonight will plunge into the single digits and lower teens in the lower elevations, with single digits much of the mountains. We'd have higher confidence of colder temperatures if were to be clear tonight, but appears slowly thickening high clouds will have some impact on low temperatures. Something to watch.

The remainder of the forecast looks relatively unchanged from yesterday, with the next snow event beginning in the mountains Sunday, but struggling to spread onto the plains Sunday evening and night. Yet another chance of light snow still in the cards toward Wednesday, but once again it looks like a minimal event for any of the lower elevations.

DISCUSSION /Through Friday/
Issued at 1234 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Radar is showing the first few signs of elevated showers developing upstream over the high country north of I-70, although water vapor imagery looks rather lackluster thus far. Nonetheless, light snow showers will gradually increase in frequency over our northern mountains we enter our evening hours in particular, with the bulk of the snow from this upcoming system anticipated to fall overnight into early Saturday morning. The story impact-wise will remain focused over our high country, where a relatively widespread 3-6" of snow is expected to create hazardous travel conditions across the majority of our mountain passes into the morning hours. Locally favored west-facing slopes in our northern mountains (mainly north of I-70) may approach 8".

Meanwhile, the lower elevations will be grasping at straws to see any accumulating snow whatsoever, as has seemingly been the case throughout the fall. There are two windows of opportunity for light showers; the first will be late this evening as the left exit region of the fast-moving jet streak zips overhead, and mid- level moisture spills east of the Continental Divide. If (and it's a fairly large "if") any showers do develop, they'd more likely bring a wintry mix, with near zero potential for snow accumulation.
Following that, the second window arrives in tandem with the cold front, still slated for the early morning hours. Potential for showers appears marginally higher then (closer to 60% chance), and would certainly be in the form of snow with a sharp frontal temperature drop, but we will be hard-pressed to squeeze out much more than a dusting to half inch of snow if those materialize, with ~1" still being close to the absolute maximum (and certainly not widespread). The trend, per usual, is not in favor of snow.
Although a few localized slick spots may be found early morning, the morning commute should be largely unaffected for most urban corridor locations. So the ultimate question: Will Denver break its snowless fall streak tonight? It's genuinely a coin toss.

What the front will be lacking in moisture, it will make up for in winter-like temperatures, and Saturday's highs will be approximately 30 degrees colder than today's, remaining near or slightly below freezing for the plains and I-25 corridor.
Overnight temperatures will fall to their lowest values so far this season, registering in the single digits and low teens for mountain and plains communities respectively.

The cold airmass will stick around for a little while as we see a second, more tilted trough dig south over Colorado. Despite its more amplified nature, the spatial pattern in accumulating precipitation looks quite similar to the first system - light to locally moderate snow accumulations in the mountains (generally less than that received tonight) Sunday and Sunday night, with an increasingly unimpressive chance (~30-40%) for light snow showers spilling into the lower elevations. Perhaps the best potential for minor accumulations outside of the mountains would be for the Palmer Divide where there will be a slightly more favorable weak upslope component, but the latest ensembles are not overly excited for the measurable snow potential elsewhere. Regardless, we'll hold on to cold temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark during the day, and returning into the teens or even a few single digits Sunday night.

The Monday into Tuesday timeframe will be characterized by gradual warming (slight on Monday, more substantial for Tuesday) and generally dry conditions, outside of a small chance (~25%) of a few mountain showers showers later Tuesday ahead of another potential troughing pattern. It's worth noting that there is little agreement in the progression of the upper-level early to mid-week, with some guidance signaling a more progressive shortwave with varying tracks, and others favoring development of a closed or cutoff low over California. Ensemble mean solutions are thus the best way to go at this time, which would favor a return to cooler and potentially "wetter" conditions (please note the inclusion of quotation marks here) for Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday. Approximately 70-80% of members carry snowfall accumulations into our mountains for mid-week, with that proportion falling to around 50% for our lower elevations.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/
Issued at 1035 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Satellite shows a bit of stratus lingering near the terminals, with thicker stratus closer to BJC where MVFR conditions are likely for another hour or two. At DEN/APA, reasonably high confidence that we'll maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds are light out of the east to northeast and should slowly turn clockwise through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Light and variable are expected overnight into tomorrow with a Denver Cyclone developing sometime during the day Sunday.
Lower ceilings will be possible by late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.