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FXUS61 KILN 060217 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 917 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light precipitation will be decreasing in coverage tonight as low pressure exits to the east. High pressure will then build into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend through the end of the work week. The next chance of precipitation will arrive this weekend as another low pressure system moves from the Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Evening update...
Low pressure continues to shift out of the area this evening with only a few locations still observing scattered rain showers or drizzle. High pressure squeezing in from the west results in increasing northerly flow overnight to around 8-13 mph, dropping temperatures into the 20s as drier air works into the area. Breaks in the clouds are possible by sunrise Wednesday morning with elevated flow causing wind chills in the lower 20s.



SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will continue to build into the middle Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will allow some breaks in the clouds... especially across the south. Highs will reach into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Winds become southwesterly Wednesday night as the surface high shunts to the east. A shortwave moving across the Great Lakes will provide mostly cloudy skies, though precipitation should remain to our north. Low temperatures will dip to around 30.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mid level ridging will develop and amplify as a trough digs into the central part of the county late this week. At the surface, this will bring an extended period of southerly flow resulting in mild, dry, breezy conditions.

Guidance continues to show a decent spread in amplitude and speed of the trough as it ejects eastward over the weekend. Even with the uncertainty that goes along with this, it does seem that the probability of the associated cold front staying west of the area through Saturday night is higher than it passing before 12Z Sunday.
So have cautiously bumped up Saturday night lows, recognizing that there is potential for it to be considerably warmer. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will occur as this system moves through. In the wake of the front, temperatures will fall and wind gusts will increase. Have bumped up winds for Sunday afternoon and evening to the higher end of the guidance envelope.

Flow will transition to being more zonal and at the surface high pressure will build in for the latter part of the period.
Temperatures will be close to normal.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A few rumbles of thunder moved through CVG/LUK between 5-6 PM this evening, providing isolated small hail. This area of instability and forcing has since shifted southeast of all area TAF sites, so no additional mentions of thunder are included.
Otherwise, continued off-and-on showers continue over the next few hours with intermittent drops in VIS to MVFR thresholds.

With regards to CIGS, currently seeing IFR to VFR conditions across the six sites with a rather complex scenario unfolding overnight. As better moisture drops south through the area, do anticipate more frequent IFR/MVFR CIGs between now and 12Z. A period of drier air will attempt to clear out some local cloud cover between 10Z-14Z with lower confidence in specific restrictions during that time. Eventually, daytime heating will allow for the expansion of more cloud cover, leading to MVFR or low-end VFR CIGs beyond 15-16Z.

Winds are beginning to shift out of the north as a weak low pressure drops southward. This flow will increase close to 10 knots overnight. High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley throughout the day on Wednesday, decreasing winds back toward 5 knots and more from a westerly or southwesterly direction.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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