Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Mid-level ridge axis centered over the middle Ohio Valley will be shunted to the east late tonight as the first in a series of shortwaves arrives from the upper Midwest. Despite favorable instability and wind shear for thunderstorms, forcing will focused to the north of our CWA Severe parameters are robust in a few of the latest CAMs. Therefore, will keep PoPs in the chance range (highest in the north and west) while closely monitoring any robust updrafts that can take advantage of the parameter space. If storms develop, all hazards will be possible.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
After a lull in the active weather Friday morning, a more significant shortwave will approach the region during the afternoon. This time, a warm front will initially be the focus of the forcing, starting across the Tri-State during the evening and lifting through the rest of the CWA just after midnight. Instability across our southern counties will peak around 3000J/kg from late afternoon into the evening, while bulk shear is likely to exceed 50 knots in the evening. Some CAMs show a warm air advection wing lifting northeast with potential discreet supercells. Behind this, it's likely a QLCS will bring the threat of damaging winds and a line- embedded tornadoes late. There is also the possibility that the line could be slowed across the south with west to east training convection bringing the threat of flash flooding.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Closed low will track across the Great Lakes to start the period which will push a cold front through the area. Most likely, this will come through dry, but there could be enough deep forcing to allow for some showers along the northern tier of the forecast area.

Ridging will build in for Sunday and Monday resulting in dry conditions with temperatures near or even slightly below normal.

The mid level pattern becomes blocky again towards midweek with the usual uncertainties as the flow transitions. At this point, it appears most likely that a closed low will move out of the central Plains and track into the Ohio Valley while getting absorbed into another closed low retrograding across eastern Canada. This will bring another period of wet weather. Highs will remain slightly below normal with lows closer to normal.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Uncertainty remains on storm potential during the overnight hours tonight. While the environment will be fairly unstable, there are questions on overall forcing. Thus, have kept it at a PROB30 mention for now during the 'most likely' window. Some storms could be strong to severe. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue overnight. Confidence is low on any vsby reductions at KLUK tonight given the higher surface winds and increased cloud coverage, so no mention in the tafs for now.

On Friday, surface winds increase out of the southwest, with sustained winds of 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Dry conditions are actually favored through majority of the daylight hours in the morning and into the mid afternoon. There is a general consensus that chances for storms begin to increase by the late afternoon / early evening. There may be multiple complexes of storms that move through, especially for our southern terminals. Storms are expected to be strong to severe given the highly unstable environment.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.