Sunday, February16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Millbourne, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:38PM Sunday February 16, 2020 1:29 PM EST (18:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:19AMMoonset 11:31AM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1221 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 1221 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will build in to the north on Monday. A warm front will move through late Monday night, followed by a cold front on Tuesday, as an area of low pressure tracks through the great lakes. Expansive high pressure then builds in behind the front and will dominate the local weather for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne , PA
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location: 39.96, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 161416 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 916 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will build in to the north on Monday. A warm front will move through late Monday night, followed by a cold front on Tuesday, as an area of low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. Expansive high pressure then builds in behind the front and will dominate the local weather for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. No significant changes to the forecast with the mid morning update. The high has shifted further offshore. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough passes through the region today ahead of an approaching weak surface cold front. The trough/cold front combo should be through western Pennsylvania by early this evening.

Warm air advection will continue with the persistent southerly return flow (which started late yesterday), and with the Arctic airmass that was in place early yesterday moving further offshore. Temperatures will return to above normal levels with highs in the mid to upper 40s, and around 50 in southeast New Jersey and southern Delmarva. High clouds will spread over the region throughout the day, resulting in mostly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. The cold front and upper trough will work their way through the region tonight. Some light rain showers, and possibly a wintry mix, may develop over Berks county, and western portions of the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys early this evening. Not expecting much in the way of QPF and snow, and PoPs will be capped at slight chance.

A warmer night on tap with lows in the 20s and low 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Overview .

No significant changes in thinking for the long term as we continue to deal with a progressive, positive AO regime which has dominated the hemispheric pattern this winter. By Monday, troughing will be digging into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes region, which will aid in renewed Southeast ridge development downstream. A weak surface low should form over the northern Plains or upper Midwest on Monday and track into the Great Lakes by Tuesday, bringing a minor rain event to the mid-Atlantic. Cooler air will then filter in behind a cold front as expansive high pressure sets up over the East, with a reinforcing cold front later Wednesday ushering in some more winter-like cold to end the week. A somewhat different upper level pattern looks to set up over the eastern half of the CONUS by the end of the week and the weekend as ridging develops over the central US and Great Lakes. This is a dry pattern for our region as we would be downstream the ridge axis and under the influence of continued high pressure. So after the relatively minor rain event on Tuesday, dry or mostly dry weather will likely hold right through next weekend and potentially beyond. Overall, a rather tranquil stretch of February weather.

Dailies .

Monday-Monday night . Surface high pressure will be centered just north of the region on Monday. The high center will be moving quickly from west to east but the timing works out such that it will be in control all day. So Monday looks to be a dry and pleasant day with highs near to above average and plenty of sunshine. Overnight, a warm front will approach from the south as the area of low pressure to our west tracks towards the Great Lakes. The timing of this warm front looks a little slower than it did last night, which would delay the onset of overrunning clouds and spotty light precip for a few hours. So expecting most of the night to be dry with increasing clouds and possibly some light precip especially to the west by the end of the night. Lows will be above average thanks to the increasing clouds and developing southeasterly flow, though if clouds hold off a little longer lows could be a little cooler than currently forecast.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . As low pressure tracks just north of the US/Canadian border, an associated cold front will be approaching from the west. A band of showers is likely to develop ahead of the front and move through Tuesday afternoon and evening. In terms of rainfall production, QPF still looks unimpressive and if anything has trended down a little in the guidance. While there is a robust southwesterly LLJ advecting moisture northward with this system, the area of enhanced moisture is narrow. In addition, the system looks very progressive. So between some light and spotty overrunning precip in the morning and that broken band of showers later in the day, rainfall amounts may struggle to exceed a quarter of an inch. Still cannot rule out some mixed precip in the Poconos at the start of the event. However, temperatures will be marginal, and the dynamics associated with the overrunning precip are weak and there likely won't be much precip at all during the short window where it could be cold enough for snow. Highs will generally be well above average as 850mb temperatures surge to around +5C, though the gradient from north to south could be fairly sharp. Overnight lows also above average as even though the cold front moves through there is no immediate push of cold air behind it.

Wednesday-Saturday . Likely to be a very quiet stretch of weather with temperatures decreasing into the end of the work week before starting a rebound for the weekend. Wednesday is a transition day, as while the cold front should be offshore by morning, there is a broad transition zone between the warm air ahead of the front and significantly colder air farther northwest. So Wednesday looks dry and near seasonable. A reinforcing Arctic front should move through on Wednesday evening or night as a positive tilt trough moves into New England. The reinforcing front will open the door to a much colder air mass which will dominate the weather from Wednesday night through Friday night. Highs and lows look several degrees below average through that stretch. Cannot rule out a snow shower or squall with the Arctic front Wednesday evening or night, but moisture looks very limited and currently think the risk is low. Otherwise, dry weather will rule for the duration of this period and probably into the start of the following work week as well. As mentioned before, higher heights start to become more prevalent over the Great Lakes and Northeast by late Friday and into the weekend, but it will take some time for the lower levels to warm so it should be a gradual warming trend for the weekend.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR/SCT-BKN100-150. S-SW winds 10 kt or less. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR/BKN-OVC050-080. SW winds less than 10 kt, becoming NW after midnight. A few light rain and/or snow showers are possible at KRDG/KABE, but not expecting VSBY restrictions. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Monday-Monday night . VFR on Monday with light northwesterly or northerly winds in the morning becoming light and variable later in the day. VFR should continue into the overnight and will probably hold through the entire night, though lower cigs may begin to encroach from south to north by daybreak. East-southeast winds of 5 to 10 kt developing overnight. High confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Mainly sub-VFR conditions are likely with areas of rain. This period should be predominantly MVFR but with some periods of IFR also likely especially Tuesday afternoon and evening. VFR should return from west to east during the overnight period. Winds shifting from southeast to southwest during the day on Tuesday, then northwest overnight, with gusts generally not exceeding 20 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday-Thursday . VFR. Northwest winds expected with gusts to 20 kt possible during the daytime periods. High confidence.

MARINE. SW winds 15-20 kt, and a few gusts to 25 kt are possible on the NJ ocean waters this morning, but do think 25 kt gusts will neither be frequent enough nor widespread enough to justify a SCA. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt by this afternoon, and then to 5-10 kt this evening. Winds shift to the NW by daybreak Monday. Winds will be about 5 kt lighter on DE Bay. Seas on the ocean will be 3-4 feet, and 1-2 feet on DE Bay.

Outlook .

Monday-Monday night . Sub-SCA conditions are expected with 2 to 3 ft seas and variable winds with gusts less than 20 kt.

Tuesday-Thursday . Initially sub-SCA conditions on Tuesday, however winds and seas will approach SCA levels towards midday or afternoon at least on the ocean waters. SCA flags may then be needed through most of Wednesday due to 4 to 5 ft seas and winds gusting to near 25 kt at times. Sub-SCA conditions should return late Wednesday and into Thursday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Johnson/MPS Short Term . MPS Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . MPS/O'Brien Marine . MPS/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 3 mi60 min 43°F 40°F1020.8 hPa
BDSP1 6 mi60 min 40°F 1021.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi66 min 38°F 42°F1021.1 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi54 min W 8.9 G 11 39°F 38°F1020.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi66 min W 7 G 9.9 40°F 38°F1021.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 34 mi60 min S 5.1 G 6 43°F 46°F1021.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi66 min 41°F 40°F1021 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi66 min W 2.9 G 8.9 43°F 41°F1021.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 46 mi60 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 39°F 44°F1021.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi60 min SSW 5.1 49°F 1022 hPa29°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA6 mi36 minW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F24°F47%1020.6 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA12 mi36 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F27°F49%1021.1 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA13 mi55 minSW 610.00 miOvercast43°F25°F51%1020.7 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ18 mi36 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds45°F24°F44%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHL

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5S7SW8S10S9S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Sun -- 01:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:56 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     6.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:36 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:39 PM EST     5.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.2-0.30.62.64.25.465.854.13.22.21.20.20.11.434.25.25.34.73.82.8

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:25 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:26 AM EST     1.89 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:01 AM EST     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:10 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     1.48 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:19 PM EST     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-1.4-0.60.81.81.81.51-0.2-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.8-1.6-1.3-0.211.51.41.20.4-0.9-1.6-1.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.