Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Byesville, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Increasing potential for severe storms and flooding mid-week starting in Ohio with localized heavy rains on Tuesday.

2) Hot temperatures with near-record overnight warmth this week

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... Daily scattered shower and thunderstorms chances begin today with a series of crossing shortwaves. The combination of a moisture-rich airmass, above- average temperatures, and weak ridging is expected to increase the risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall during the middle of the week. Any strong storms could produce a range of hazards, including damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes, and localized flooding.

Potential for localized flooding is increasing in area within a county or so of Zanesville Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rich pool of 2.0" to 2.2" precipitable water values are just upstream of the area from IL into KY, and values of 1.8-2.0" are expected to move into at least the Ohio portion of forecast area by Tuesday afternoon along with 68-72F Tds. These Precipitable Water values would be near record high values. Along with 20-25 knot SW flow in 850-700 mb layer, moisture transport values will be decent. Corfidi vectors will be around 5 knots, indicating strong potential for training and backbuilding echoes.

HRRR shows 30-60% chance of 2" of rainfall in 24 hours in far western 5 counties in Ohio, with 20-30% chance of locally 4"+.
Situations like these general feature very small areas that get excessive rainfall, and are historically difficult to forecast both spatially and temporally. Not quite enough confidence for a flash flood watch yet but will increase messaging of localized heavy rain/flash flood threat.

Best severe potential appears to be Thursday afternoon, when ML guidance indicates a 30-45% probability for severe weather across most of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Confidence is high in temperatures of 5 to 15 degrees above the climatological average today into this weekend. Daily high temperatures are likely to fall short of the daily record highs in the mid/upper 90s this week, especially with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. However, overnight lows in the lower 70s late week will be near record warm minimums. Warm overnight temperatures are particularly dangerous during prolonged periods of heat. Large portions of the area have a 70%+ chance of Major Heat Risk on Thursday, with high probabilities of Moderate Heat Risk other days this week.

AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
General VFR is expected through the day outside of local shower/thunderstorm-related restrictions. An approaching shortwave combined with a strong influx of moisture continues to lower cloud decks early this morning. Low probability showers and thunderstorms are possible through the morning, with highest probabilities over eastern Ohio (ZZV).

Daytime heating with increasing moisture should result in more widespread shower/thunderstorm development after 18z. Heavy rain may result in periods of IFR or lower visibilities. Thunder chances will diminish by around 03z Wednesday, but scattered showers should persist through the overnight. Ceilings will lower into IFR overnight through Wednesday morning.

Outlook...
A warm, moist environment with intermittent passing of upper shortwaves favor daily thunderstorm chances through the rest of the week. Restrictions are likely with any storm while excessive rain could create cig/vis impacts even during non-rain periods, likely around the dawn hours.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.