Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Byesville, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) After lingering showers dissipate Monday, there is fairly high confidence in dry weather until Wednesday/Thursday, when the next front arrives.

2) Cold front arriving on Wednesday and potentially stalling over the southern portion of the area by Thursday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Expect another weak wave to track through the region during the day on Monday. Convective parameters are unfavorable for severe weather with this activity for most of the area. Locations north of Pittsburgh may miss out completely. However, to the south, some decent instability remains and a Marginal risk just clips the southern portion of Tucker County and mainly for a wind threat. Also, declining precipitable water values point to a decreasing risk for heavy rainfall. The Flood Watch has been cancelled as the rainfall rates have come down and the expected PWATS through the day on Monday feature still a moist 1.8 but nothing like over the last 24 to 36 hours.

High pressure building in from the Great Lakes should end precipitation by Mon evening. Dry weather is then favored until Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The pattern will shift a bit by Wednesday as the ridge axis to the west begins to tilt to the east as the upper level flow over the Great Lakes become a bit more northerly allowing a cold front to dive south across the Great Lakes and into the forecast area. At this time, there appears to be a lack of surface based CAPE and any risk of severe weather may depend on a greater forcing.

The front passes to the south for Thursday but some ensembles suggest the boundary stalling across the southern portion of the forecast area, mainly I-70 or just south. This could lead to another focused region of point rainfall. This will need monitored in the coming days for the potential of severe and/or flooding on Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Morning IFR restrictions should quickly improve to MVFR to VFR this morning.

A surface cold front is progged to track across the region today, which may provide a focus for showers/sub-severe storms near/south of PIT.

Restrictions are expected to return by the evening and overnight in the 00Z to 06Z timeframe on Tuesday. Expect fog/stratus to develop with LIFR expected from roughly 08-13z most sites.

Outlook...
Other than early morning fog, VFR is then expected through early Wed under high pressure. Restriction and shower/thunderstorm chances expected Wed and Wed night with the approach and passage of a cold front. VFR returns Thu and Fri under high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.