Byesville, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Byesville, OH

April 16, 2024 7:44 AM EDT (11:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM
Moonrise 12:07 PM   Moonset 2:40 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Byesville, OH
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 160736 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 336 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Seasonably warm weather today will give way to showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with the passage of a low pressure system. There is a low probability for hazardous weather associated with those storms. Additional cold frontal passage Friday will lead to a pattern shift that results in drier but cooler weather Saturday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated to scattered late day thunderstorms possible for far southwest zones.
- Dry and seasonably warm temperature will lead to low daytime humidity values.
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Ridge building to the west in response to an increasingly negatively tilted low over the Central Plains will lead to generally dry weather today across the Upper Ohio River Valley.
Though high level clouds will slowly increase amid warm, moist advection aloft, area temperature is expected to rise around 15 degrees above the daily average. Combined with notably dry air aloft and deep diurnal mixing, relative humidity values in the 20s will be common this afternoon, which could pose limited fire weather concern if much of the region didn't remain fairly saturated from weeks of rain.

The notable exception to this discourse if the approach of a warm front from the SE underneath the building ridge that may provide enough forcing in a weakly unstable environment (~500 J/kg forecasted SBCAPE) to initiate mostly isolated late day showers and thunderstorms across the far southwestern forecast points. Hazardous weather is not expected given weak instability and shear. Warm, moist advection will increase overnight ahead of the east-moving trough/sfc low, promoting widespread cloud cover and low probability light rain shower chances along the warm front.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday, with all modes possible (though low probability).
- Seasonably warm temperature to persist through Thursday.
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The negatively tilted trough will lift over the western Great Lakes Wednesday as it weakens/phases with a northern stream trough over central Canada. Shortwave movement at its base will push through a morning warm front then late-day cold front across the Upper Ohio River Valley that will foster rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances will wane after the cold frontal passage early Thursday morning, with shortwave ridging and surface high pressure fostering dry and seasonably warm weather Thursday.

The severe weather threat will be keyed on the potential environment ahead of the cold frontal passage, with the window of potential impact more likely aft 21z (5pm). Current HRRR analysis suggests SBCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg and 30-40kts shear developing prior to the cold front and embedded upper shortwave passage. Combined with likely higher LCL heights and a tall-skinny skew-T profile, this setup would support primarily a wind and hail threat, though curved hodographs may still support a low-probability tornadic threat. In addition, continued saturated conditions across the region means any thunderstorm that produces locally heavy rain (possible given PWAT values potentially around the 90th percentile of normal for time of year) could create localized flash flooding.

That would be an idealized synoptic setup, which is not a given based on available model guidance. Though it does appear the surface warm front and its associated precipitation will clear east prior to peak heating (~2pm), timing of the shortwave and surface cold front entering the western zones is less certain and should prove crucial on tapping into the brief window of instability before nocturnal cooling limits available energy.
Additionally, broad ascent ahead of the impinging upper level jet may continue scattered convection behind the cloud front and limit destabilization. HRRR SBCAPE spreads highlight this nicely as 75th percentile values (higher end) show near 1000 J/kg across eastern OH while 25th percentile values (lower end)
struggle to get to 100 J/kg. Diagnosis of each of these conditions will be key approaching the event.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms likely Friday with passage of a surface cold front.
- Pattern shift will lead to drier but cooler conditions Saturday into early next week.
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Brief ridging Thursday will be quickly shunted east Friday as upper troughing takes hold over the northwestern Great Lakes and pushes across an embedded shortwave. Depth and orientation of the upper trough will drive the timing of the shortwave feature and its associated cold front through the region Friday, whether it be morning or afternoon. Either scenario is unlikely to yield much instability (90th percentile values of SBCAPE are around 200 J/kg), while accumulations from the showers along the cold front are currently pegged to be less than 0.5" (48-hr probability of exceedance is generally less than 30%).

Ensembles favor upper troughing over the Great Lakes region for the weekend period, fostering drier weather and cooler temperature. Any precipitation chances during this timeframe are likely to be tied to the development of embedded shortwaves rounding the upper trough base, which would offer low-QPF amounts and favoring the higher terrain/upslope locations.
Ensembles favor broad but weak troughing to continue into early next week, which supports seasonable temperature and dry weather.



AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure has set up over the area and will continue to result in VFR conditions through the TAF period. A lack of gradient in place will make for light and variable winds through the period as well. Cloud cover will be on the increase as mid and upper level cloud cover begin to move into the area by the end of the TAF period. Any shower potential should hold off until after the TAF period.

Outlook
VFR will prevail until restriction potential returns late Tuesday and Wednesday with approaching low pressure.
Restrictions are possible into Thursday under a subsequent upper trough.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCDI CAMBRIDGE MUNI,OH 2 sm29 mincalm10 smClear39°F39°F100%30.13
KZZV ZANESVILLE MUNI,OH 15 sm51 mincalm10 smClear46°F37°F71%30.10
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Wind History from ZZV
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