Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Philadelphia, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

2. Widespread minor coastal flooding with the evening high tide cycles today and Sunday along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay.
A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for this evening.

3. Some severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

On Sunday, an expansive upper-level trough across much of eastern Canada will gradually shift eastward. Some stronger shortwave energy within the southern portion of the trough will slide across our area. At the surface, a cold front will be tied to this feature, which is forecast to cross through Sunday evening. There is also indications of a pre-frontal trough as well. The low to mid level flow will increase some in response to these features, which will increase both the warm air and low-level moisture advection.

At this point it is fairly confident that showers and thunderstorms will be around portions of the area Sunday afternoon and evening. As stronger synoptic forcing arrives, guidance continues to indicate bulk shear values in excess of 40 kt, which will aid storm organization. Looking at other parameters, MLCAPE in the area should max out around 1000-1500 J/kg with decent low-level shear around 25- 30 kt. Low-level lapse rates will be in excess of 8 C/km, DCAPE will top out near 1000 J/kg, and PWATs will be near 1.8 inches, which support wet microbursts, indicating that damaging winds gusts are likely with any storm. Additionally, some guidance has continued to depict a localized corridor of backed surface winds, primarily over southwestern portions of the area, so an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. One fly in the ointment though, is some forecast soundings (more notably the NAM) indicate an area of mid-level warming between 700-850 mb, which may keep the area capped through the afternoon. This is primarily confined to eastern locales, rather than western ones, however. Considering the above analysis and upon discussion with SPC, a SLIGHT risk of severe weather (level 2/5) has been maintained for Sunday.

Timing at this point is a little more up in the air considering we may be capped through at least some of the afternoon. However, general indication is that at least one round of convection is expected somewhere between the 3-11 PM timeframe; with perhaps an organized linear feature possible. Given that PWATs are abnormally high, we also cannot rule out some localized flash flooding, especially near/over the urban corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor coastal flooding with the evening high tide cycles today and Sunday along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for this evening.

A New Moon this weekend will result in higher than normal astronomical tides. This will result in widespread minor coastal flooding with the evening and nighttime high tide cycles today and Sunday, and potentially Monday as well on the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay.
The tidal Delaware River and its tributaries could experience some spotty minor tidal flooding (non-advisory) by Sunday night's high tide but generally these astronomical tide driven flooding events produce more noteworthy impacts for the Atlantic coasts and Delaware Bay. The highest of the New Moon tides will be Sunday night and Monday night. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for this evening for portions of the Delaware Bay from Kent County, DE and Cumberland County, NJ southward as well as along our Atlantic coastal zones.

Tidal flooding is not currently expected along the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Some severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

An upper-level trough centered over south-central Canada is forecast to strengthen eastward and also southward across the Great Lakes. A strong shortwave rounding the base of this trough may result in a portion of it taking on a negative tilt across the eastern Great Lakes and toward New England during Thursday. This will also drive deepening surface low pressure up across the eastern Great Lakes and into adjacent Canada during Thursday. A strong cold front will then arrive into our area Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening.

As the synoptic pattern evolves, the flow will increase out of the south and southwest. This will advect deeper moisture northward, and in tandem with strengthening warm air advection will lead to increased instability during the day Thursday. In addition, a strong mid to upper level jet streak is forecast to extend eastward from the eastern Great Lakes, with 40-70 knots of flow at 500 mb forecast across our area Thursday afternoon. This increased flow will result in greater shear magnitudes. While there are some timing differences among the guidance regarding the main features, the consensus is that enough instability should overlap with the stronger shear along with incoming stronger forcing. As a result, there is some severe thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon and evening. As of now, damaging winds may be the primary threat especially if convection develops into a squall line, however if shear and instability ends up being even greater than all severe thunderstorm hazards may come into play. The details are much less certain at this time range though given the typical uncertainty with instability and the thermodynamic profiles. The forecast synoptic setup however with a deepening surface low tracking well to our northwest with stronger flow within a warmer and more moist environment suggests some risk for severe thunderstorms.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with increasing high clouds. West/southwest winds around 5 kt or less, becoming light and variable at times. High confidence.

Sunday...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through in the afternoon, getting to the Lehigh Valley between 20z-23z, the I-95 corridor between 22z-01z, and the South Jersey terminals after 01z-02z. Timing should come into better focus in future forecast cycles, but did add PROB30 groups for the I-95 and Lehigh Valley terminals. A brief period of IFR conditions are expected with any showers/thunderstorms that move over the terminal in addition to potential strong winds. Outside of any convection, winds start out of the southwest around 5-10 kt.
Between 16z-18z, winds should increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt and go more south/southwesterly.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with any lingering showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR. Northwesterly wind gusts to 20 knots during the day.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Some sub-VFR conditions with a few showers or a thunderstorm possible.

Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions probable in the afternoon and evening as showers and some thunderstorms increase.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Atlantic Coastal Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Cape Henlopen DE from 1 PM Sunday to 12 AM Monday. Small Craft Advisories have also been issued for the Delaware Bay from 1 PM to 8 PM on Sunday.

Southwest winds around 10-15 kt and seas of 2 feet or less are expected to continue through Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening, southerly winds are expected to increase to around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas build from 2-4, potentially up to 5 feet. Scattered thunderstorms possible late Sunday afternoon and evening, otherwise fair weather.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Thursday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions probable.
Southerly wind gusts could near gale force for a time later Thursday.
Some gusty thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening possible.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday, winds become southerly and increase to 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts. However, a medium period swell around 6-8 seconds will continue along with breaking waves once again 2 feet or less for most beaches. The exception will be at southern facing beaches in Cape May and Atlantic counties where breaking waves in the surf zone will be up to 3 feet as the winds will be most directly onshore here. Therefore, the risk for the development of dangerous rip currents will be higher for these beaches, and a MODERATE risk is currently forecast for these two counties. For the remainder of the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches, a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is forecast.

For Monday, winds become northwest 10-15 mph with a continued medium southerly swell of 6-7 seconds. With breaking waves 2 feet or less, have gone with a LOW risk for all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ012>014-020>024-026-027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430- 431.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday night for ANZ450>454.