Hendley, NE Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hendley, NE

April 21, 2024 7:33 AM CDT (12:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM
Moonrise 5:28 PM   Moonset 4:53 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hendley, NE
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Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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FXUS63 KGID 211137 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 637 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally warmer, more seasonable temperatures for the next week, with at least mid 60s to 70s each day. Overall-warmest day is currently forecast to be Monday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

- Pattern tends to become more active, especially mid-late week and into the weekend. The next chance (30-60%) for scattered showers/storms comes Monday eve-night.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible (~20% chance) for at least portions of the area on Thu, and perhaps beyond into Fri-Sun.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible (40-70% chance) Tuesday afternoon due to combination of gusty N winds and relative humidity values in the low-mid 20s.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Surface and upper ridging should bring quiet and sunny conditions to the region today, and despite the seasonably cool temps near 60F, the sunshine and relatively lgt winds should make for a fairly pleasant afternoon. Return flow sets up overnight as the sfc high shifts SE and lee troughing develops in response to shortwave moving from the N Rockies into N Plains. This trough will force a relatively weak/Pacific cold front through the area Mon aftn/eve, but not before temperatures spike into the mid 70s to lower 80s within environment of deep mixing and SWrly low level flow. Can't rule out a brief bout of near critical fire wx conditions for mainly Furnas Co Mon aftn, but worst/most widespread dip in RH should focus over W KS.

The next chance for scat showers/storms will come Mon eve-night as low level jet ramps up to 45-50kt and impinges on the gradually southward sinking front. Effective wind shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and seasonably low freezing levels suggest a non-zero chc for at least small (dime-nickel) size hail in strongest cores. However, still appears as though instability will be the limiting factor thanks to limited moisture (PWATs <1"), with even the most robust MUCAPE progs generally less than 1k J/kg. Appears greatest chcs for the scat coverage will be between roughly I-80 and Hwy 36 corridors, though at least low end chcs (20-30%) exist everywhere.

Whatever develops Mon night should shift well E/SE by dawn Tue AM, setting the stage for a dry and mostly sunny daytime. High temps will fall back a bit into the mid 60s to lower 70s, but the main sensible weather story for the day will be the breezy N winds gusting 25-35 MPH, low relative humidity (RH) into the 20-25% range, and resultant near critical fire wx. RHs have trended a couple percentage points lower over the past 24 hrs, and if this trend continues can't rule the need for some fire headlines Tue PM. At least the good news, though, is that recent moisture has really kicked the greenup of the cool season grasses over the past couple of weeks. Tue night is a bit tricky in that some guidance brings next bout of elevated warm air advection and shower chcs, in which the cloud cover could help limit frost potential amidst lows in the mid to upper 30s. However, if this activity does not pan out, then may need one more round of Frost headlines, esp. N/NE of the Tri-Cities.

A much more active pattern appears on track to develop for the end of the week and continue into next weekend. Models are in decent agreement with large scale features (incoming upper trough, SW mid-upper level flow and opening NW Gulf of Mexico for moisture return), though as usual for day 5+, pertinent low level details remain a bit uncertain which will be key in determining overall severe weather potential.

Appears deterministic models, and their associated ensemble guidance, are coming into line showing a general pattern conducive of multiple rounds of strong-severe convection over broad swaths of the central U.S. over at least a 3-4 day stretch, perhaps longer. This is evident by the decent agreement in broad western U.S. upper troughing, SE U.S. upper ridging, and resultant seasonably strong SWrly mid-upper flow atop a destabilizing and increasingly moist airmass. Furthermore, appears the western Gulf of Mexico will open up and begin to modify the S Plains airmass as early as late Tue-Wed, and remain "open for business" through at least next weekend. While it's next to impossible to accurately predict individual shortwave troughs at this time, general model consensus is that these waves will be strong enough to provide decent mid level speed maxima/deep layer shear, but not too strong to drive the primary effective front/baroclinic zone into the Gulf/Deep South. With that said, seems like the most probable scenario at this time is that highest severe risk will tend to focus S/SE of the local area, reinforced by the idea of repeated rounds of convection.
So it's possible that we could avoid the worst of the severe weather while still receiving much needed moisture from the more stable, northern portions of potential multiple MCSs. This is evident by ensemble progs of positive moisture anomalies, but only modest probabilities for more than 1k J/kg of CAPE (esp.
beyond Thu night). Newly issued SPC Day 4-8 outlook remains largely unchanged, with Slight Risk-level probabilities over our KS zones on Day 5 Thu, then a larger risk area that is mostly E/SE on Day 6 Fri. A resurgence of instability is possible over the weekend, but predictability is just too low at this time.

Exact temperatures will be largely determined by rain/cloud coverage, but in general, would expect mostly above normal lows (which are generally upper 30s to mid 40s) and highs within ~10 deg + or - of normal (which are 60s to low 70s).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR through the period with little to no cloud cover.

Winds will start off out of the WNW/NW, then gradually back to W/SW later this aftn and eve and remain around 6-9kt. Overnight, Srly winds will increase to 9-12kt by around midnight, then closer to 15kt after 09Z in response to 45-50kt low level jet.
This will result in low level wind shear at both terminals through about 14Z Mon. Confidence: High.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-006.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ007-017>019.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KNRN NORTON MUNI,KS 12 sm18 minNW 0810 smClear32°F30°F93%30.42
KCSB CAMBRIDGE MUNI,NE 23 sm18 minW 068 smClear25°F25°F100%30.38
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