Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hendley, NE

UPDATE
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Wednesday):

- In the interest of time, really going to keep the focus here on these first 36 hours. For anything beyond that, the highlights are covered in KEY MESSAGES above.

- That being said, one thing worth pointing out in the longer term is the CONSIDERABLE uncertainty that still exists for Friday's strong cold frontal passage timing, and the resultant impact on high temperatures, severe thunderstorm potential etc. At this time, the NAM/ECMWF are noticeably faster with this frontal passage than the GFS, which if the faster solution were to verify could render our currently-forecast high temps at least 10+ degrees too warm, and also more solidly shunt any severe storm risk in the afternoon- evening at least slightly south- through east of our CWA (SPC officially barely clips our southeast edges with their latest Day 4 "Slight Risk equivalent/15% area).

- For all fire-weather related concerns (including today's Red Flag Warning), see separate Fire Weather section below for more details.

-- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through late Wed afternoon/early evening):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM/general comments: Although a rogue strong thunderstorm developed late yesterday afternoon/early evening in our far northern CWA (affecting mainly Greeley County), as expected we remained both well- southwest and well-northwest of the main rounds of severe storms in the greater region. We will likely remain very slightly west of the main threat areas over these next 24-36 hours, but close enough to at least modest elevated instability that a few "surprise" strong to even marginally-severe storms cannot be ruled out.

Early this morning, all is quiet across the CWA, as we reside under almost entirely clear skies. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm continued broad southwesterly flow aloft, with the first of two primary/large-scale upper troughs of the week very slowly approaching from the Intermountain West/Rockies. At the surface, a weak but fairly well defined low pressure center (around 1002 millibars) resides over our KS zones. Due to the position of this low, a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented quasi- stationary front bisects our southern CWA, separating light-but steady northerly breezes to its north, from light and generally southerly breezes to its south. Low temps are on track to bottom out within a few degrees either side of 50 most areas (except closer to 60 far southeast around Mitchell County KS).

- TODAY (through around 6-7 PM): Although we bring in some small chances (mainly 20-30%) for spotty showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon, odds strongly favor the vast majority of our CWA staying rain-free through at least 6-7 PM. Aloft, the main upper system will approach from the CO area, causing another surface low pressure center to take shape over mainly northwest KS by late in the day. The trickiest part of today's forecast really boils down to the exact position of the aforementioned quasi-stationary front, which is expected to remain very near the NE/KS border through much of the day, but perhaps TRY lifting north up toward Highway 6. To the north of the front, generally east-northeasterly breezes 10-20 MPH will prevail with high temperatures mainly in the 70s-low 80s, while south of the boundary, gusty southwest winds will develop (gusts easily 25-35 MPH especially in KS), allowing temps to soar into the mid-upper 80s and promoting resultant fire weather concerns.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: As the night wears on, the main upper trough/mid level closed low will track closer, reaching the NE/KS/CO border area by sunrise Wednesday. At the surface, another low pressure center will track eastward through our southern CWA, reaching roughly the Hebron area by sunrise. As this low tracks through, it will keep that same generally west-east frontal boundary in place through much of the night, with northeasterly winds prevailing over most of our CWA to its north, and southerly breezes into at least the first part of the night in our far south, but even there eventually turning more northerly/northwesterly as the surface low tracks east.

In terms of convective/rain potential, high-res models such as from HRRR/NAMNest clearly keep the main threat for any severe storms (especially surface-based ones) slightly east-through- southeast of our CWA .more within the main low-level instability axis and low-level jet axis. However, this forecaster is still a little concerned that we get see a rogue strong to marginally- severe storm or two overnight (likely of the elevated variety), as the increased lift from the approaching trough interacts with pockets of at least 500-1000 J/kg elevated CAPE (possibly upward of 1500 J/kg in our far southeast), in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear on the order of 60-70+KT. In theory, any spotty severe in our area would favor our extreme southeast fringes (where SPC did introduce a Marginal Risk/level 1), but feel that almost anywhere (even our west) could see a rogue, marginally-severe hail threat as lift impinges upon the elevated instability.

All that being said, the actual COVERAGE of storms in our CWA this evening-overnight will be isolated-to-scattered at best, and thus kept PoPs fairly modest.

Low temps tonight are aimed fairly similar to this morning...most places upper 40s-low 50s.

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: Over the course of the day, the main upper low/trough axis tracks directly through the heart of our CWA/general region from west-to-east, reaching the IA/NE border area by sunset. As the associated surface low tracks east in tandem, our breezes will turn more west-northwesterly at generally 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts. Precip/storm-wise, "in theory" we do not have a severe threat, and the coverage of any showers/storms should again be isolates/scattered at best. HOWEVER, pockets of lingering instability to at least 500 J/kg, aided by cooling aloft from the deep trough passing overhead, have been known to produce "surprise" marginally-severe storms with perhaps a hail threat or even a random funnel cloud (probably not reaching the ground) in these kind of setups around here, so that probably cannot be totally ruled out. Kept modest PoPs going across much of our CWA, but overall-highest chances currently appear to focus/near north of I-80. Any lingering activity should depart our far eastern counties by 5-7 PM.

In other departments, high temps were nudged down slightly...most places aimed between 71-75 degrees.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found in the Fire section below.

Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely should stay precipitation free, but there's about a 10% chance for development in far northern counties of the forecast area around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north.

As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but would require significant moisture transport and pooling through a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now, forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north central KS.

After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday.
This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the storm system, and current indications suggest a higher likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so we'll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at least into the first couple days of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the period, although increasing mid-level clouds could bring a ceiling down into the 5-10K ft. range this evening-overnight, along with a fairly small (generally 30%) chance for a passing shower/thunderstorm or two. Severe storms are fairly unlikely in any pass through, but small hail probably cannot be ruled out.
Given the fairly low probability of occurrence, have continued to handle thunderstorm chances with PROB30 groups.

As for winds, they will remain steady
breezy at times
but not overly-strong throughout the period. Sustained speeds will commonly be 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT...possibly 20+KT especially 16-20Z time frame. Direction will remain fairly consistent, mainly varying between northeasterly to northerly, as both KGRI/KEAR remain north of a frontal boundary positioned roughly near the NE/KS border.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Unlike yesterday's more widespread critical fire weather conditions that affected most of our CWA, today's main threat area will be more focused near and especially south of the NE/KS border...to the south of a relatively sharp, west- southwest to east- northeast oriented quasi-stationary front. South of this front, a hot/deeply mixed airmass will exist with temps at least mid-upper 80s and southwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH (40 MPH probably cannot be ruled out, especially in KS). Given these winds and relative humidity (RH) expected to crash down between 15-20%, critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop. As a result, the previous Fire Weather Watch was "upgraded" to a Red Flag Warning for our 6 KS counties, and we also tacked on most of our adjacent Nebraska counties along the state line. At least near-critical conditions with slightly higher RH/slightly lighter winds will probably extend another 1-2 counties north of the Warning (at least getting into some of our Highway 6 counties in Nebraska).

- THURSDAY: Following somewhat of a break in fire weather concerns on Wednesday due to slightly cooler temps/lighter winds, concerns return in earnest already Thursday afternoon-early evening as high temperatures again jump into at least the low-mid 80s in the presence of southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH (probably higher). Relative humidity is currently forecast to fall to as low as 10-20% for most of our CWA, making this a decent candidate for our next Warning day...particularly in the western half of our area.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: Despite cooler temperatures than the last few days and those on Thursday, each of these days will likely feature at least limited coverage of near- critical conditions, with pockets of outright- critical possible. More details will be provided as these days get closer in time.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.