Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Beach, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 052342 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 642 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. The region will remain between strong low pressure over Eastern Canada and high pressure building southeast from central Canada into the Upper Midwest to start the weekend. High pressure builds across the area Sunday, and then shifts to the south and east into the middle of next week. The high moves offshore Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday and becomes nearly stationary across the region Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Updated for dew points running lower than forecast as a dry airmass remains across the region. Otherwise, updated for current temperatures and winds, and gusts.

A slowly dissipating polar vortex over eastern Canada will remain nearly stationary through Saturday. This will maintain a deep-layered NW flow, which will funnel unseasonably cold air into the region for the weekend.

Gusty NW winds up to 30 mph early in the evening will gradually weaken through the overnight. A large area of cyclonic flow across eastern Canada and the Northeast will also allow for low-level moisture to filter in at the base of an inversion around 85h, resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies the second half of the night.

Lows tonight will range from around 20 inland, to the lower and mid 20s at the coast. This is about 5 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Unseasonably cold conditions will continue due the aforementioned upper low across eastern Canada. NW winds will also be weaker on Saturday, but still looking at gusts 20-25 mph. RH values will be higher, 30 to 40 percent, so no plans for a fire weather statement. KBDI also still supports high ground level moisture.

Clouds will be more prevalent on Saturday with cyclonic flow and continued cold advection. Much of the area should be mostly cloudy in the afternoon due to steepening low-level lapse rates and weak instability. Have maintained snow flurries well north and west of NYC. A WNW flow is typically not conducive for this, but cyclonic flow could help sustain snow shower activity farther downwind of the eastern Great Lakes.

Highs Saturday will top out in the lower 30s inland, the to mid and upper 30s at the coast (highest NYC metro).

Skies clear Saturday night with the loss of heating and high pressure building in from the west. Lows will range from the upper teens inland, to the lower and mid 20s at the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The eastern trough and low over eastern Canada early Sunday will be a little slower to move eastward, and heights will beginning to rise late Sunday afternoon as the upper ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Heights will then continue to rise through Wednesday night as the ridge is re enforced from a building ridge moving in from the central U.S and the Gulf of Mexico region.

Deep northwest flow continues into Sunday night with temperatures remaining below normal. Weak warm advection begins to setup during Monday as low level winds gradually back, and a warming trend begins. The warming will then continue into the end of the week, with stronger warming expected Wednesday and Thursday as the surface high and upper ridge begin to move offshore. By Thursday temperatures may be as much as 10 to 20 degrees above normal seasonal levels, especially across inland locations, away from the influence of cooler ocean waters. Ocean waters temperatures remain in the lower 40s. At this time no record highs are in jeopardy Wednesday and Thursday with record highs in the upper 60s and 70s.

The forecast has become a little more uncertain with the approach of a cold front for Thursday into Friday, as the eastern ridge is a little more amplified and split flow has now developed with the northern stream trough farther to the north, mainly across southern Canada, and the shortwave moving out of the western trough and tracking into the plains and then the Great Lakes upper midwest region. The cold front will be a little slower to move into the area, and then become nearly stationary as the southern stream frontal wave moves into the Appalachians late Friday. With the uncertainty and to keep some continuity will have slight chance to low end chance probabilities mainly Thursday night through Friday. And while Friday will likely remain above normal for temperatures, cloud cover, and the timing of the front will affect the highs for the day.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The region remains between high pressure centered over south central Canada and low pressure centered over southeastern Canada.

VFR through TAF period. Stratocumulus likely Saturday may produce ceilings around 4K ft mid-morning throughout the afternoon

NW winds will diminish this evening, but still gust 20-25kt. Occasional gusts of 25-30 kt are possible through 03Z. W-NW winds near 15kt with gusts to 20 kt possible Saturday.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Winds could vary on either side of 310 degrees at any point tonight but more likely to stay left of 310 magnetic.

Occasional gusts 25-30 kt are possible through 03Z

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday night through Wednesday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. No changes to winds and seas at this time.

SCA conditions will continue tonight, lingering into the morning on the ocean waters. Gusty NW winds on the backside of low pressure across eastern Canada will gradually weaken into Saturday night as high pressure builds in from the west.

With high pressure dominating across the forecast waters Sunday through Wednesday winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. With high pressure off the coast Thursday, as a cold front approaches, southwesterly winds will strengthen, and ocean seas will be approaching 5 feet late Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns through the period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.

SYNOPSIS . MET/DW NEAR TERM . DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . JP MARINE . MET/DW HYDROLOGY . MET/DW

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY	29 mi	38 min	WNW 21 G 25		40°F		1011.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor	58 mi	38 min	W 19 G 23		41°F		1011.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	60 mi	38 min	WNW 21 G 29	35°F	42°F		1010.8 hPa	15°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ

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NW25 G32

NW22 G29

NW27 G33

NW27 G33

NW30

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NW26

NW28 G34

NW23

NW25

NW23 G28

NW19 G27

NW20 G28

NW22 G28

NW24 G30

NW25 G32

NW24 G29

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NW23 G29

W25 G32

NW26

NW28

NW22 G27

W18 G24

1 day ago

N3

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N4

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NW15

NW17 G25

NW18 G26

NW15 G20

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NW25 G31

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NW25 G31

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NW20 G26

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NW16

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SW13 G16

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SW7 G10

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W19

W18 G22

W16 G20

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W15 G19

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W4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY	57 mi	22 min	WNW 8	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	4°F	30%	1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)

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NW10 G20

NW13 G23

NW16 G22

NW16 G23

NW13 G27

NW15 G26

NW12 G23

NW10 G21

NW11 G18

NW9

NW10 G19

NW17 G25

NW12 G28

W15 G20

NW15 G21

W13 G21

NW13 G26

NW19 G26

NW18 G28

W19 G26

W16 G25

W13 G22

NW8

NW8

1 day ago

NW4

W3

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Calm

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W4

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NW15 G24

N12

N12 G16

N15 G22

NW16 G22

NW18 G26

NW15 G28

W18 G27

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NW16 G27

NW12 G20

NW17 G25

2 days ago

W6

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W7 G16

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NW10 G17

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Calm

Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York

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