Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 2:08 AM   Moonset 6:03 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1034 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night - .
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Sun - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
strong high pressure continues its influence over the waters before slowly pushing off to the north and east off the new england coast tonight. Eventually, a warm front approaches from the west before passing to the north on Wednesday. A cold front nears the waters Friday into Saturday before stalling out early next week. Small craft advisories are possible for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

FXUS61 KCTP 030255 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1055 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Wednesday. A dying cold front will push in from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, then stall out over the area late this week. Low pressure tracking north of Pennsylvania will drag a cold front through the state Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Upper level ridging building over PA will result in fair weather across the forecast area tonight. Late evening satellite imagery shows a decent amount of upstream mid and high level cloudiness over Western PA and Lk Erie associated with warm advection aloft preceding a weak shortwave riding the top of the building ridge. Therefore, expect an increase in clouds overnight with partly cloudy wording sufficing for most of the area.

Mostly clear skies through late evening, combined with a light wind and dry air, may allow the eastern half of the state to fall a bit below NBM guidance for min temps tonight. However, increasing cloud cover and a southerly return flow associated with the departing surface high should result in much milder conditions than last night. Most locations should be in the upper 50s to low 60s by dawn.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Upper level ridging over PA should provide most of the region with fair and warmer conditions Wednesday. The warmup will be accompanied by an uptick in humidity as a southerly flow increases ahead of a weak cold front over the Grt Lks. Model RH profiles suggest the entire region will start Wednesday mostly sunny. However, diurnal heating and surging low level moisture should result a fair amount of afternoon cumulus, especially over the W Mtns.

GEFS 2m temp anomalies are a few degrees above normal over the W Mtns and near average elsewhere, translating to highs well into the 80s areawide. Moisture advection and low level convergence along an approaching low level jet could potentially support a shower/tsra toward evening across Warren/Mckean counties based on the latest HRRR and 18Z operational runs.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
All medium range guidance tracks a dying cold front southward into Central PA Wed night into Thursday, accompanied by a good chance of showers/tsra. Latest RH profiles suggest there will be plenty of cloud cover and progged mid level flow doesn't look overly impressive. Therefore, the severe weather threat for Thursday currently looks limited.

The front is progged to stall out in the vicinity of Southern PA Thursday night, then return north as a warm front Friday ahead of low pressure lifting across the Grt Lks. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of an upstream shortwave and associated surface low lifting across the Grt Lks should bring a round of showers/tsra in the Friday PM to Saturday timeframe.
Current guidance suggests the shortwave and bulk of the large scale forcing will pass north of PA, leading to unimpressive mean qpf in the ensemble plumes of 0.25 to 0.50 inches Fri PM to Saturday.

The bulk of guidance now supports fair and seasonable conditions Sunday into at least early Monday, as surface ridging and drier air work in behind the cold front. Showers and storms return to the forecast for early next week as another wave of low pressure tracking to our north brings a cold front through the region.

Temperatures in the long term forecast look above average, especially overnight lows Wednesday through Friday night, when EPS pwats are 150pct of normal.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure dome overhead will keep wind very light overnight. The southerly wind will pick up a bit again on Wed.

There is a small window of time overnight when the wind just aloft gets up to 25-35KTs, so we've mentioned LLWS in the wrn forecasts, but the core of the faster wind is more over the NW, and we don't expect the SErn terminals to have LLWS.

A cold front will approach Wed night and lay out W-E over the state on Thurs. The deep moisture Wed PM and Thurs will allow for sct- nmrs TSRA. Arriving mid aftn at BFD, so have included VCSH in BFD TAF starting 03/20Z.

Outlook...

Wed night...TSRA NW (IFR poss), dry SE with no impacts.

Thu...AM low cigs and isold SHRA possible W Mtns. Sct PM TSRA impacts possible over all the airspace, but mainly S of I-80.

Fri...sct TSRA, impacts possible, mainly PM, highest covg W.

Sat...sct-nmrs TSRA areawide, highest SE in PM.

Sun...AM fog poss. Otherwise, no sig wx.

CLIMATE
June 2024 was the warmest June on record for Bradford with a mean temperature of 66.6F, breaking the old record of 65.8F set in 2021.

June 2024 was the 3rd warmest June on record for Harrisburg with a mean temperature of 76.0F.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Tue -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Tue -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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