Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Millersville, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:10PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 12:42 PM EST (17:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 943 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 943 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain south of the waters through tonight. A weak cold front will pass through the waters late tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure will briefly build overhead Wednesday night before moving offshore Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build toward the waters waters late in the week into the weekend. There is a potential for gale force winds Wednesday, and small craft advisories will likely be needed for at least portions of the waters Wednesday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millersville , PA
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location: 40, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 191457 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 957 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. A more typical January weather pattern will take hold across Central PA through the end of the week with seasonably colder temperatures, breezy conditions, and periods of snow showers focused over parts of the Allegheny Mountains.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 1445Z update: Focused area of westerly isentropic lift along the 280K theta sfc matches up nicely with the heart of the favorable DGZ across Central PA late this morning. We've seen a compact area of steady light to briefly moderate snow sliding ENE across the Central Mtns and West Branch/Central Susq Valley through about 18Z.

Afterward, models show this region of gentle isentropic upglide moving quickly east and out of our zones, followed by improving/dry conditions.

7AM/12Z: Bumped up max temps +1-3F given current readings trending warmer to start to the day. The overnight clouds + steady wind combo continues to produce warmer minT vs. guidance.

Previous Discussion Issued: 416 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 Nuisance snow showers and flurries will continue early today mainly along and to the northwest of US220/I99/I80 corridor before fading this afternoon behind departing shortwave ripple. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and breezy with highs near seasonal averages for mid/late January. However, the brisk west wind will make it feel colder with wind chills running about 10F below air temps.

Focus turns to potent shortwave swinging through the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley by late tonight/06Z Wed. We are anticipating an active snow shower pattern to ramp up across CPA into Wednesday morning as the aforementioned shortwave and pocket of steep lapse rates tracks across the area. The favored lake/terrain enhanced snowbelts and elevations should pick up at least an inch or 2 of snow by 12Z Wed. especially over the Laurel Highlands.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Snow showers continue across the NW Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands through Wednesday afternoon. We coordinated with LWX and PBZ on an advisory for Cambria & Somerset Counties with high probs of 3" especially on the ridges along/west of US219 where locally higher amounts 4-5" are possible through Wed. aftn. Close call for the NW snowbelt zones especially Warren, but will allow dayshift to address concerns again after collaborating with CLE/BUF.

We are growing increasingly concerned about the potential for snow squalls based on the latest SNSQ parameter output and hires model guidance - particularly the extended 06Z HRRR run. Based on current RWIS road temps, it seems likely that road temps tomorrow morning would be cold enough (sub-freezing) across the western 1/2 of the area to limit flash freeze risk, with main concern being brief localized whiteouts with quick snow accums.

However, there is some signal that snow showers/squalls? could maintain intensity southeast of US220/I99 corridor toward I-81 and possibly through the Lower Susq. Valley in the 09-15Z window. This area would be at greater risk of dangerous whiteout + flash freeze given likelihood of warmer (above freezing) road temps prior to onset. With confidence trending higher, plan to add mention of squalls to the HWO and possibly to wx grids. We may also address this to some extent in the 1-page DSS briefing for the advisory level snow fcst in the Laurels.

Cold, blustery WNW flow persists through Wed. afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph possible over south-central PA. Leaned toward colder guidance for Wed. max temps given steady dose of CAA. The CAA should promote efficient blyr mixing and trended wind gusts higher than blended guidance. Broader area of snow showers early Wed. should transition into NW-SE oriented bands during the afternoon before gradually dissipating into Wed. night as low level flow turns more to the southwest.

Warm front lifts northeast early on Thursday with a relatively milder and breezy WSW wind boosting max temps by 10F or so vs. Wednesday. No precip expected during the day on Thursday, but it appears that reinforcing upper trough will result in more snow showers in the NW PA snowbelt downwind of Lake Erie by Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. All medium range guidance indicate a low amplitude trough will work through the northeast CONUS late next week. A seasonably chilly northwest flow should be able to generate a bit of lake effect snow across the northwest mountains and Laurels Fri-Sat. However, surface ridging and low inversion heights are currently progged, suggesting any accumulations will be light. Upper level ridge and fair weather appears likely to build into Pa late next weekend.

Model spread increases by early next week with approaching northern stream shortwave. 18Z GEFS and 12Z ECENS are a bit slower than operational runs with this feature and suggest any threat of precipitation could hold off until late Monday. The bulk of guidance tracks a weak surface low south of Pa indicating any precipitation that falls would likely be light snow. However, will maintain the possibility of mixed precipitation across southern Pa based on latest GEFS plumes and model uncertainty inherent in a day 6-7 forecast.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Compact area of lift in the 5-8 kft agl layer was producing -SN with MVFR to IFR conditions. This area of flying reductions will move from KUNV ENE through the KIPT area over the next several hours before exiting across the Poconos of NEPA after 18Z.

Elsewhere across the Southern half of PA, expect improvement as winds back slightly more to the southwest, and clouds begin to break SE of the Alleghenies.

West-Southwest winds will gust into the mid and upper 20s across the higher terrain and where channeling occurs throughout some of the Central Valleys, while other locations see gusts in the upper teens to low 20 KT range.

A strong cold front will be near BFD and JST just after Midnight. The front will move east of the area by mid morning on Wednesday. Snow showers and brief squalls will be across the north and west the first part of Wednesday. Gusty winds will prevail late tonight into Wednesday.

Outlook .

Wed . Gusty northwest wind. A chance of morning snow squalls across the west and north.

Thu . No sig wx expected.

Fri . Snow showers with tempo IFR vsbys possible BFD/JST.

Sat . No sig wx expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ024-033.

SYNOPSIS . Lambert/Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Lambert/Steinbugl SHORT TERM . Steinbugl LONG TERM . Fitzgerald AVIATION . Lambert/Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi54 min 39°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 52 mi54 min WSW 6 G 8.9 42°F 42°F1020.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 52 mi54 min W 7 G 12 42°F 30°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA10 mi49 minW 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast41°F22°F47%1019.4 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA24 mi46 minW 510.00 miOvercast40°F22°F49%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W14W12NW10W13W13W12W7W10W9W8W5W7W9W9W6W4W5W7W6SW6W7W12W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:51 AM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:27 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:20 PM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.11.61.71.61.30.90.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.20.10.61.11.41.41.20.90.60.30.1-0-0

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:58 AM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:27 PM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.51.41.10.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.611.21.210.70.50.20-000.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.