Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Washington Boro, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and heavy rainfall remain possible today into this evening.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and heavy rainfall remain possible today into this evening.

The second of two shortwaves embedded in the NW flow of a deepening SE Canada and Ern U.S. trough (will be located across the Upper Glakes at 12Z) and will move quickly SE and bring at least another 1-2 rounds of MDT-HVY SHRA/TSRA across the CWA today into this evening with localized additional rainfall amounts of over 2 inches given the rich moisture with PWATS of 1.5-1.7 inches across all of the CWA

The target for the greatest number of SHRA/TSRA is over our SE CWA where a FLash Flood Watch was posted and extends through 2 AM EDT WED.

Models close off the mid and upper low over SE Ont and New York State late tonight/Wed.

Some heavy rain potential will linger into Wednesday as the slow moving upper low dips over northeast PA/SE NY before drifting East toward southern New England Wed night. 36-48 hour storm total rainfall could exceed 3 inches over some parts of the northeast CWA by Thursday morning.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Complex set of TAFs for today, with spotty SHRA/TSRA increasing in coverage across portions of central PA during the predawn, followed by more numerous SHRA/TSRA alongside lowering cloud ceilings as a trough of low pressure moves across the region during the morning & afternoon. VFR is favored outside of any SHRA/TSRA during the predawn hours. Gradual improvements behind the low pressure expected after 18-21z, although low clouds could redevelop across the Laurels and northern mountains later tonight.

A more defined cluster of showers and storms associated with the trough will move west to east across our area between the early morning and late afternoon, resulting in prevailing MVFR- IFR ceiling restrictions with periodic MVFR-IFR visibility restrictions. Heating may be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania (best chance at KMDT/KLNS), with gusty/damaging winds being the primary threat.

Outlook...

Wed...Restrictions likely with IFR to MVFR stratocu and SHRA/TSRA beneath upper low

Thu...Improving conditions with lingering -SHRA. Patchy AM fog.

Fri...Mainly VFR.

Sat...Patchy AM fog. Restrictions possible in isolated showers/storms mainly in the south.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ057>059-063>066.