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FXUS61 KPBZ 040033 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 733 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cool and breezy conditions will continue through early Monday morning in the wake of a cold front. Light rain shower chances will remain focused along the ridges and north of Pittsburgh for the next 24 hours. The potential for a rain/snow mix increase after dawn Monday with incoming colder air aloft.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Breezy and cooler conditions are currently being observed across the Ohio River Valley due to a strong pressure gradient and boundary layer mixing from incoming cold air aloft in the wake of a front. The probability of 30mph wind gusts decrease in the low elevations between 12am to 2am Monday. However, within the ridges of PA/WV, probabilities remain high (above 70%) for 35mph to 45mph gusts with mountain wave activity.

Precipitation chances through 6AM should remain generally focused along the ridges due to orographic lift and near I-80 due to lake enhancement. Additional precipitation will likely be less than or near 0.10 inches to 6AM.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The next short wave trough over Kansas is expected to move well south of the forecast area and head across Kentucky and Virgina on Monday. Weak ridging moving into the area with northwest flow will produce lake effect showers but mostly north of forecast area.

The next system dropping out of Canada into the northern Plains Monday will reach Illinois by Tuesday morning. It is then expected to move from Indiana into Ohio during the day Tuesday before it weakens as it enters West Virgina Tuesday evening. A 100 meter 500 mb height fall center pushes through the southern Appalachians and heights over forecast area fall to around 5400 meters. The thermal profiles will be cold enough through most of the boundary layer for snow. 850 mb temps of -5C at KPIT would normally suggest snow but it will be just above freezing at the surface so a period of rain is certainly possible before wet bulb cooling turns precipitation over to wet snow.

Accumulations under an inch are possible on grassy surfaces.
Roads likely to be wet at the lower elevations during the day but higher elevations of the Laurel Highlands and in Preston/Tucker counties in WV look to get 2-4" of snow. NBM probabilities show a 30% chance of 6+" in eastern Tucker County WV as northwest upslope flow develops Tuesday night in the wake of the low.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Northwest flow and some upslope snow into the ridges weakens Wednesday and surface ridge moves overhead by evening. A prolonged period of southwest flow and warm advection starting Wednesday night and continuing into Friday warms readings above normal. Readings in the 50s are likely to occur Friday through Sunday and NBM 90th percentile MaxT are 61F-64F over the weekend at KPIT.

As usual in extended forecast, the details on the timing and location of a potentially significant weekend low vary depending on what ensemble system you look at. Sometime in the Saturday to Sunday time frame it appears a low will emerge from the lower to middle Mississippi Valley and track northeast and deepen. Most of the solutions are relatively warm for forecast area with rain appearing most likely.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Just a few nuisance showers left on the radar scope early this evening, and should not be a factor going forward.

Main issue this evening will be gusty winds, as strong mixing occurs in the wake of recent frontal passage. Sustained speeds averaging 13-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will be the rule through the evening, with an occasional gust to 30 knots possible. MGW remains the lone hold out having just had frontal passage, but expect their winds will become WSW and increase as well by 01Z. Even with the gusty character to the surface winds, strong speed increase off the surface supports mention of low level wind shear at a few terminals this evening, and several recent PIREPs show the rapid change in wind speed just off the surface.

Broken VFR ceilings should steadily fall to MVFR by late evening as low-level cold advection persists, and is supported well by both upstream observations and model guidance. There is a low probability of IFR ceilings briefly being breached at FKL-BVI into Ohio during the period but that should be the exception rather than the rule.

WSW winds should gradually subsided by Monday morning.

OUTLOOK
Periodic restrictions will continue through Wednesday as cold air returns. Snow shower chances increase for DUJ/FKL Monday afternoon as winds shift from the northwest and cold low-lvl moisture overspreads areas downstream of Lake Erie. Elsewhere, the chance of rain or a rain/snow mix remains with a slightly warmer boundary layer.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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