Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neffs, OH
 | Sunrise 6:45 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 4:12 AM Moonset 4:03 PM |
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neffs, OH
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FXUS61 KPBZ 141114 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 714 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Forecasts for the heat and possible record breaking temperatures remained largely in line with the previous cycle. The Marginal Risk for Severe Weather was expanded across the entire region Today. Storms today look to pose a primarily damaging wind threat, possibly in two separate waves. A Slight Risk for Severe Weather has been introduced to areas north of I-70 on Wednesday for what could be more of an all hazards severe weather day.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday.
2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather on Tuesday.
3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70.
Storm chances to continue Thursday as well.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s.
Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend.
Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so.
PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees.
Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again.
This is the kind of setup in which each day could be at least a Marginal Risk day, but severe weather in the region is not a guarantee and model spread is quite large. This low confidence and high spread forecast is due to each day being largely dependent on what happens the night prior and morning of. As such, these will be difficult forecasts to pin down.
An ongoing MCS across MI and WI will influence our local forecast today and then continued convection around the periphery of the ridge late this afternoon could impact us again late tonight. At this time, two possible shots at severe weather look in play for us today:
1. The ongoing MCS in WI and MI moves SE through the morning and storms begin to spark again in a rapidly improving thermodynamic environment somewhere across the eastern Ohio river valley early this afternoon.
2. Storms fire late this afternoon near the periphery of the ridge in Michigan, congeal into one or multiple line segments and advance SE towards us into a quickly worsening thermodynamic environment late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Both scenarios represent possible severe weather threats but are very different and NEITHER are guaranteed to produce severe weather for us. The early afternoon severe may have a lower likelihood of occurrence requiring some breakdown of the ridge in place, but would have a much higher likelihood of severe.
The late night storms may have a slightly higher likelihood of occurrence, but feature a more muted likelihood of severe, possibly with only scattered showers surviving that late and this far southeast.
Thermodynamics are far more supportive of early afternoon convection, with the HRRR mean CAPE field suggesting we could have between 750-1000 J/kg of CAPE collocated with 25-35 knots of shear. A reasonably more unstable solution (possibly representing a slower approach of the boundary), lying closer to the 90th percentile, could see CAPE values climb as high as 2000 J/kg largely in Ohio. If they occur, storms this afternoon would have a much better chance of being severe, featuring mainly a damaging wind threat. The hail and tornado threats look to be lower, with more muted lapse rates than yesterday's forecast cycle, less CAPE in the -20 to -30C range and relatively high LCL's. Hodographs still do show some low-level curvature depending on your model but it looks highly CAM dependent.
Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight.
These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so.
By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms.
SPC has expanded the Day 1 Marginal Risk to encompass the entire forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night.
Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday.
Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR with a few isolated showers are expected through 15z, though a quick cu development within the MVFR levels around KBVI/KFKL/KDUJ can't be ruled out.
Hi-res modeling shows greater consensus on a broken line of showers and thunderstorms dropping southeast through the area between 16z-23z. The lack of higher instability (mean values likely to be less than 1000 J/kg with its passage) kept TAF mention as lighter rain/restrictions in a thunderstorms with minimal gustiness. However, small sections could be strong enough to create MVFR cigs/IFR visibilities in heavier rain along with a gusty wind out of the NW (or whichever angle the line develops).
Generally VFR with clearing post-convective cloud decks is expected by 00z and lasting through the end of the TAF period.
Northwest PA near FKL/DUJ may see MVFR cigs develop due to moisture convergence amid moist return flow; additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms may also reach these locations by 12z from weakening clusters exiting the Great Lakes area.
Outlook...
The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions.
A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather.
CLIMATE
See below for record max highs and max lows this week:
Today, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 714 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Forecasts for the heat and possible record breaking temperatures remained largely in line with the previous cycle. The Marginal Risk for Severe Weather was expanded across the entire region Today. Storms today look to pose a primarily damaging wind threat, possibly in two separate waves. A Slight Risk for Severe Weather has been introduced to areas north of I-70 on Wednesday for what could be more of an all hazards severe weather day.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially on Wednesday.
2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather on Tuesday.
3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70.
Storm chances to continue Thursday as well.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf continues to influence our weather through the week. At its strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across the region through the work week and possibly as late as Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s.
Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday- Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great Lakes early this weekend.
Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70% chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so.
PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3 such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping 8 degrees.
Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi- day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area overnight starting the whole process again.
This is the kind of setup in which each day could be at least a Marginal Risk day, but severe weather in the region is not a guarantee and model spread is quite large. This low confidence and high spread forecast is due to each day being largely dependent on what happens the night prior and morning of. As such, these will be difficult forecasts to pin down.
An ongoing MCS across MI and WI will influence our local forecast today and then continued convection around the periphery of the ridge late this afternoon could impact us again late tonight. At this time, two possible shots at severe weather look in play for us today:
1. The ongoing MCS in WI and MI moves SE through the morning and storms begin to spark again in a rapidly improving thermodynamic environment somewhere across the eastern Ohio river valley early this afternoon.
2. Storms fire late this afternoon near the periphery of the ridge in Michigan, congeal into one or multiple line segments and advance SE towards us into a quickly worsening thermodynamic environment late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Both scenarios represent possible severe weather threats but are very different and NEITHER are guaranteed to produce severe weather for us. The early afternoon severe may have a lower likelihood of occurrence requiring some breakdown of the ridge in place, but would have a much higher likelihood of severe.
The late night storms may have a slightly higher likelihood of occurrence, but feature a more muted likelihood of severe, possibly with only scattered showers surviving that late and this far southeast.
Thermodynamics are far more supportive of early afternoon convection, with the HRRR mean CAPE field suggesting we could have between 750-1000 J/kg of CAPE collocated with 25-35 knots of shear. A reasonably more unstable solution (possibly representing a slower approach of the boundary), lying closer to the 90th percentile, could see CAPE values climb as high as 2000 J/kg largely in Ohio. If they occur, storms this afternoon would have a much better chance of being severe, featuring mainly a damaging wind threat. The hail and tornado threats look to be lower, with more muted lapse rates than yesterday's forecast cycle, less CAPE in the -20 to -30C range and relatively high LCL's. Hodographs still do show some low-level curvature depending on your model but it looks highly CAM dependent.
Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight.
These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so.
By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a damaging wind threat from these storms.
SPC has expanded the Day 1 Marginal Risk to encompass the entire forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast highly dependent on Tuesday night.
Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason- Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday.
Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping cold front.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR with a few isolated showers are expected through 15z, though a quick cu development within the MVFR levels around KBVI/KFKL/KDUJ can't be ruled out.
Hi-res modeling shows greater consensus on a broken line of showers and thunderstorms dropping southeast through the area between 16z-23z. The lack of higher instability (mean values likely to be less than 1000 J/kg with its passage) kept TAF mention as lighter rain/restrictions in a thunderstorms with minimal gustiness. However, small sections could be strong enough to create MVFR cigs/IFR visibilities in heavier rain along with a gusty wind out of the NW (or whichever angle the line develops).
Generally VFR with clearing post-convective cloud decks is expected by 00z and lasting through the end of the TAF period.
Northwest PA near FKL/DUJ may see MVFR cigs develop due to moisture convergence amid moist return flow; additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms may also reach these locations by 12z from weakening clusters exiting the Great Lakes area.
Outlook...
The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions.
A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather.
CLIMATE
See below for record max highs and max lows this week:
Today, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHLG
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHLG
Wind History Graph: HLG
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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