Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dover Beaches North, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A mid-level trough currently centered over the Northern Plains will track eastward towards the area tonight. The trough axis will lift northeastward Sunday, passing to the north of our area Sunday afternoon. H5 heights will fall Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon before subtle rises begin as the trough axis lifts away from the region. At the surface, high pressure in control tonight will quickly shift east Sunday morning as a subtle warm front approaches and moves through the area. A cold front trailing a low pressure system moving eastward through southern portions of Ontario and Quebec will track through the region Sunday evening.

A dry night is in store with increasing clouds. With the cold airmass in place, temperatures will still fall into the upper 20s for most, with low-mid 30s for the Coastal Plain and the urban corridor. Temperatures will probably bottom out earlier in the night than typical, with a slow rebound towards sunrise as subtle warm advection begins.

Light precipitation will begin to move into western portions of our area during the morning hours, and spread across the entire area by afternoon. Most locations will see a cold rain. Across the Poconos and perhaps into portions of far northwestern NJ, precipitation is expected to start as light snow, changing to a rain and snow mix during the afternoon. All precipitation will come to an end with the passage of the cold front during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts look to generally be in the 0.15-0.25" range. Snow accumulations of 0.5-1" are possible in the Poconos.

Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 30s for the Poconos, low- mid 40s elsewhere northwest of I-95, and upper 40s to near 50 southeast of I-95. For the Coastal Plain, temperatures could climb into the low 50s. It will also be breezy, with south- southwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 mph.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Subtle ridging aloft Saturday night will quickly give way to mid- level height falls as a trough axis shifts eastward through the Great Lakes on Sunday. The trough axis will pass near or just north of the area Sunday night. Subtle height rises will occur through Monday as the trough departs. At the surface, high pressure will quickly depart to the east by Sunday morning as the next storm system approaches from the west. A surface low will track to our north through the day Sunday and into Sunday evening with a trailing cold front passing through Sunday night.

Widespread, but mostly light precipitation will overspread the area on Sunday. Along and especially northwest of I-95, precipitation may start as a rain and snow mix if it begins early enough in the morning, with all snow for the Poconos. As temperatures warm through the day, precipitation should transition to all rain. Some light snow accumulation will be possible for the Poconos, and perhaps down into the I-78 corridor if snow begins early enough in the morning. The Pocono Plateau is forecast to receive around 1" of snowfall, and a brief dusting cannot be ruled out at lower elevations.

Regarding rainfall, amounts will generally be around 0.10-0.25", with isolated areas potentially seeing slightly more or less. The greater amounts look to occur mostly across New Jersey. Highs on Sunday look to be in the mid 30s for the Poconos, the mid- upper 40s for the remainder of our eastern PA counties and much of NJ, and the low-mid 50s across the Delmarva and near the coast. A breezy SSW 10-15 mph wind will develop on Sunday, with gusts near 25 mph at times.

Rain will come to an end across the area Sunday evening from west to east with the passage of the cold front. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Monday will be dry but chilly, with highs generally in the low to mid 40s (mid to upper 30s north of I-78). For the Poconos, temperatures may remain near to slightly above freezing. Breezy northwesterly wind can be expected behind the front Sunday night into Monday, with gusts to around 30 mph.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Monday night currently appears mostly dry with high pressure over the area beginning to retreat northeastward. Low temperatures should be in the 20s for most. Low pressure will be developing over the southeastern US, and will begin to approach the area by daybreak Tuesday. It currently appears that the low will make its closest approach to the area Tuesday afternoon, and begin departing to the northeast by Tuesday night.

Widespread precipitation is expected with this system. Right now, have chance PoPs moving into portions of the Delmarva and eastern PA during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. PoPs are highest Tuesday afternoon and evening, in the 80-90% realm areawide. Precipitation chances should wind down fairly quickly overnight Tuesday night, with the entire region precipitation- free by Wednesday morning.

Regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall: models are in good agreement this afternoon regarding the track of the low and its associated features. With that said, even subtle shifts could have big impacts given it currently appears likely that the rain to snow line will fall somewhere in our forecast area, with accumulating snowfall increasingly likely for some.

In looking at the overall pattern, high pressure looks to retreat northeastward with the approach of the low. This will tend to favor onshore flow and marine influence affecting temperature profiles for most, especially south of I-78.
Initially, snow or a rain and snow mix could be possible as far south as the I-95 corridor, with all snow favored northwest of the fall line, and all rain favored to the southeast of I-95.
Through the day Tuesday, the rain/snow line will likely shift northwest. At the peak of precipitation coverage and intensity, all snow is possible for the Poconos and into adjacent portions of far northwestern NJ, a rain/snow mix will be favored northwest of the fall line, and all rain elsewhere.

It is still too soon to get overly specific with amounts.
DESI/NBM probabilistic guidance maintains a ~50% chance for 1" of snowfall or more, and around 30-40% chance for 2" of snowfall or more for the Lehigh Valley, I-78 corridor, and points northwest. Probability for 1" or more is around 80% for the Poconos, and around 60-70% for 2" or more. These probabilities drop sharply toward the I-95 corridor, which still has about a 10-20% chance of 1" or more of snowfall and near 0% chance for 2" or more. A cold, soaking rainfall is likely elsewhere, including locations south of I-78. High temperatures could vary widely on Monday, with temperatures mostly in the 30s northwest of I-95, the low to mid 40s for most of the coastal plain, but potentially near 50 degrees near the coast where the marine influence is most felt.

After the low departs Tuesday night, dry conditions are expected through Friday. A cold front looks to bring a reinforcing shot of cold air Thursday night into Friday, but for now it looks like precipitation chances will be quite slim.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...VFR. SCT mid and high-level clouds. West- northwest wind around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing mid-level clouds. Light and variable wind. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR to start. Light rain will move in from west to east 15-17Z, with MVFR ceilings accompanying it. Visibility restrictions are possible as well at times. South-southwest wind 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Restrictions likely in periods of rain and low clouds. Gusty SSW winds. Rain will clear the area Sunday evening, but low clouds could linger through most of the night.
Gusty WNW winds at night.

Monday through Monday night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (20%) of sub-VFR conditions in rain or snow late Monday night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions expected in low clouds and periods of rain/snow for the northwestern terminals, and in rain elsewhere. Conditions should improve by late Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
No marine headlines through tonight with west-northwesterly winds around 10-15 kt today becoming southeasterly at 5-10 kt.
South- southeasterly wind will begin to increase mid-morning Sunday to 20- 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas will increase to 4-7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting at 10 AM Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...SCA conditions are expected with south winds increasing to 20-25 kt, with gusts near 30 kt. Winds will shift to northwest Sunday night, but remain elevated.
Winds should diminish by Monday afternoon. Seas 4-6 feet.

Monday night...No marine hazards anticipated with wind below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions likely with east winds increasing to near 25-30 kt and then becoming northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds look to diminish Wednesday afternoon. Seas 5-7 feet, also diminishing Wednesday afternoon.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ450>455.