Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelter Cove, CA

DISCUSSION
Showers continue rotating around a quasi-stationary low- pressure system near- shore the central California coast this afternoon. Generally scattered to isolated showers, especially over the eastern portion of the CWA Showers activity will continue to gradually tapper off from N to S through tonight, focused primarily on Mendocino and Lake counties. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over Lake County this afternoon into early evening.

A weak high pressure build into the area tonight into Thursday, bringing clear skies and dry conditions to the region. Breezy to gusty easterly offshore flow will continue over the ridges through Thursday morning. Areas of fog and patchy dense fog are anticipated along the shelter valleys.

Tuesday through Friday, expect seasonable daytime temperatures and chilly overnight low temperatures. Lingering cold air will promote overnight temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than today's readings, with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s for the coastal areas and generally in the 30s for the interior valleys.
Many areas along the coast will have periods of stratus cover along with areas of fog and patchy dense fog Thursday night into Friday.

The pattern looks more active with cooler highs and wetter weather from this weekend through mid next week. Ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance continues to trend toward higher chances for rainy and cooler weather late this weekend and early next week as a much deeper, positively tilted cut-off trough approaches.
This system have the potential to bring periods of moderate to heavy mountain snow, widespread rain and breezy to gusty southerly winds. At this point, the heaviest precipitation is expected on Sunday.

Early through mid next-week, a potent cold upper-level trough will dig south- southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska toward the West Coast. The cold airmass will aid in the development of steep lapse rates which will promote heavy precipitation, along with isolated thunderstorms and the potential for accumulating small hail along the coast by Tuesday. NBM probabilities are predicting a high likelihood for 1" to 3" in 72 hours from early Sunday to early Wednesday morning for most of the CWA, with 3 to 4.5" in the windward facing terrain.

The main concern with this system are the potential for heavy mountain snow, which would impact highway passes, along with the potential for lower elevation snow. Snow levels are expected to start around 5,000 feet Saturday and gradually drop to around 2,000 to 3,000 feet MSL by early next week. There is uncertainty on just how low snow levels could get due to the probability of convective showers, which has the potential to lower snow levels for localized areas. Heavy snow across the higher ridges above 4000 feet could accumulate from 1 to 3 feet from Saturday morning through mid next week. Travel impacts are anticipated from Sunday through mid next week. Stay tuned! /ZVS



AVIATION
A low pressure system off the coast of Central CA continue to funnel clouds over NW CA. These elevated ceilings are forecasted to remain as such through the TAF period with light winds expected for the North Coast and inland terminals. Closer to the center of the low in Mendocino and Lake county, Low Level Turbulence is possible tonight due to a LLJ out of the east set against surface southerly-to-variable light winds. More cloud coverage enters the area from the NW tomorrow, yet VFR conditions are expected to prevail.



MARINE
Moderate northerly winds remain over the outer waters.
Steep, short period seas of 7 to 9 ft will maintain advisory conditions over the northern outer waters into Wednesday night.
Relatively calm winds and seas will persist elsewhere until Thursday afternoon into Friday when northerly winds increase again, reaching 20 kts in the southern waters. These persistent, fresh breezes will create steep wind waves of At the same time, a large long period swell will build in, peaking 10 to 12 ft at 18 seconds Friday. This swell alone will bring hazardous conditions to small crafts.



BEACH HAZARDS
Generally mild beach conditions expected through Thursday before a steep, northwest long period swell arrives Thursday evening. This wave will peak around 12 to 13 feet at 16 seconds during the daytime Friday. This swell will align with beaches in Humboldt,Del Norte, and Mendocino counties, increasing the threat of sneaker waves. The wave is expected to produce set behavior with breakers leading to rapid and unexpected beach run ups of over 18 feet. Calmer winds and few short period seas along the coastline Friday will further enhance this danger making waves more sneaky, especially on steeper beaches. Take care if going to the beach late in the week. Choose flatter beaches if possible. Stay off of rocks, logs, and jetties. Never turn your back to the ocean! DS



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through late Friday night for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ470.