Monday, June14, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leisure Village East, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:28PM Monday June 14, 2021 10:47 PM EDT (02:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:59AMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1010 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. Tstms late this evening and early morning, then a chance of tstms late. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the late morning and afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms early in the morning. A chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds, becoming mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 9 seconds after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1009 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure over eastern ontario will progress to the east with its associated cold front passing through our region tonight into early tomorrow morning. The low should then move northeastward towards canada's maritime provinces on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A secondary cold front will on Wednesday evening with high pressure arriving in its wake for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Saturday and it should pass through our region on Saturday night and could stall just to our south into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisure Village East, NJ
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location: 40.03, -74.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 150155 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 955 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over eastern Ontario will progress to the east with its associated cold front passing through our region tonight into early tomorrow morning. The low should then move northeastward towards Canada's Maritime Provinces on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A secondary cold front will on Wednesday evening with high pressure arriving in its wake for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Saturday and it should pass through our region on Saturday night and could stall just to our south into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Over the last hour or so we've seen the line of storms congeal and start training over the Philly metro area. This has become the focus over the next hour or so as we have started hearing reports of flooding and some water rescues across the metro corridor. Of particular note, Frankford Creek at Frankford rose 5.5 feet in 24 minutes to go into minor flood state.

With the storms slowly moving towards the east we've been able to start clearing counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 with only the New Jersey counties south of I95 currently in a watch. Damaging winds will remain the primary threat this evening with small hail possible.

As we move towards the overnight hours showers and thunderstorms will continue across DelMarVa as the strengthening shortwave progresses through central and southern PA as evidenced on W/V. This shortwave should provide enough lift to see a line organize and tap into better forcing aloft.

Bulk shear vectors based on the RAP are in the neighborhood of 50 kts across southeastern PA and both storm motion and anvil relative flow look boundary parallel. This suggests that the linear convective features being depicted by the latest HRRR and 18z NAMNest are reasonable as approximations for how the rest of the evening will unfold.

Lapse rates will continue to steepen this evening from north to south as damaging winds continue to be the primary threat this evening. With the enhanced lapse rates, slightly better instability, stronger bulk sheer, and better forcing, the highest threat for severe weather will generally be from Trenton and south this evening.

As the earlier shift indicated, the tornado threat will be limited by the weak low- lvl wind fields (the wind field is very "mid- lvl heavy" in this event). Heavy rain is certainly a concern with any stronger convection with some signal for 1-2+ inch an hour rates, however suspect that the quick system motion will make the hydro threat secondary to the wind threat.

For Tuesday, the axis of a short wave rotating around the trough is forecast to pass overhead early on Tuesday afternoon. As a result, we will keep a chance of showers in the forecast. There will continue to be some weak instability at that time so we will also mention a slight chance of thunder.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The period from Tuesday night through Thursday will feature a fairly sharp mid level trough extending southward from Quebec over the eastern states. The main axis of this trough looks to pass through by Tuesday night resulting in mainly dry weather for this time period.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the region will be situated between high pressure over the midwest and low pressure over Atlantic Canada. This will set up a dry air advection pattern with lowering dew points and skies that will generally be mainly clear to partly cloudy. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 50s to around 60 with highs Wednesday mainly in the 70s to near 80.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday bringing continuing mainly clear skies with temperatures a little on the cool side for this time of year as lows will be mainly in the 50s with highs mainly in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The mid level trough moves out to sea Thursday night with some ridging from the southwest and west arriving overhead on Friday. Another mid level trough is expected to progress from Ontario and the Great Lakes through the northeastern states over the weekend.

At the surface, high pressure is forecast to slide off the coast Thursday night into Friday. It should remain dry Friday with readings likely getting into the lower and middle 80s at most locations as the return flow on the back side of the high begins to bring warmer air into our region.

A cold front associated with the weekend's mid level trough is anticipated to approach from the northwest on Saturday before passing through our region on Saturday night. As a result, we will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms at that time for Saturday afternoon/evening. The front may stall near or just south of the region Sunday into Monday but forecast details remain uncertain at this time. Will keep in at least a slight chance of showers across most of the region for both days.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Thunderstorms are progressing eastward this evening with the potential for some of the to become strong to severe, and continuing through the early overnight period. Best timing is generally through 05Z, before the storms exit to the east of the terminals. Strong, gusty winds with the potential for small hail through tonight along with low MVFR to IFR cigs and vis. Conditions remain low MVFR to IFR (possibly LIFR at times) behind the storms and continuing through the rest of the night. Southwest winds ahead of the storms may become slightly more southerly before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will start to trend more to the northwest towards morning. Moderate confidence in the overall forecast, low confidence in timing/coverage of storms.

Tuesday . MVFR/IFR conditions expected across the southern half of the region to continue through 14-15Z before improvement to VFR starts to occur for all terminals. Northwest winds around 5 to 10 knots in the morning will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots through the afternoon. Slight chance for some showers or thunderstorms but confidence to low to include even a VC at this time. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday . VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Thursday . VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Friday . VFR. Southwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Saturday . Mainly VFR except restrictions possible in late day showers/storms. SW winds 10 to 15 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions will prevail through Monday night with seas running 2-3 ft and southerly winds around 10-15kts. There will be potential for thunderstorms with locally strong winds tonight over all waters.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Friday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Saturday . Southwest winds will increase and could get near SCA levels by late day.

Rip currents .

The risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to remain borderline Low-Moderate through Tuesday given 2-3 ft breakers, and medium-period low amplitude shore-perpendicular easterly swell. We have issued a MODERATE risk for NJ with a LOW risk for Delaware for Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Meola Near Term . Deal Short Term . Fitzsimmons/Iovino Long Term . Fitzsimmons/Iovino Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Meola Marine . Carr/Fitzsimmons/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 26 mi51 min 65°F4 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi53 min SSW 8 G 9.9 69°F 1009 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi37 min S 9.7 G 14 65°F1008 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi53 min NW 6 G 8 68°F 72°F1008.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 39 mi77 min E 8.9 71°F 1008 hPa67°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi71 min WSW 5.1 G 6 69°F 74°F1008.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 42 mi53 min 67°F 67°F1008.3 hPa
MHRN6 42 mi53 min NE 5.1 G 6
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 67°F 1008.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 47 mi53 min 68°F 65°F1009.1 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi53 min 69°F 68°F1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ10 mi51 minVar 5 G 176.00 miThunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist66°F63°F90%1009.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi47 minNE 410.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4S5S4SE4W3CalmSW4S4S4S6S7SE8SE10SE7
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1 day agoSE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W3SW5SW5SE7SE9SE9S9SE7SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:10 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM EDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.40.40.40.30.30.20.10.1000.10.20.30.30.30.30.30.20.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:50 AM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:51 PM EDT     2.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.2-0.7-1.4-1.9-2.3-2.3-1.7-0.50.61.51.71.30.6-0.2-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.2-01.222.3

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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