Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leisure Village East, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:32PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 2:59 AM EST (07:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:32PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 238 Am Est Tue Dec 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 7 to 9 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the sw with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 11 seconds, becoming mainly from the W with a dominant period of 10 seconds in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 238 Am Est Tue Dec 1 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A strong surface low will lift from the southeast early this morning to the saint lawrence valley tonight, where it will stall through Wednesday before continuing northward into eastern canada late this week. High pressure in the system's wake will build northeastward into the eastern u.s. Wednesday and Thursday before moving offshore Thursday night and Friday. Another system may affect the region this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisure Village East, NJ
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location: 40.03, -74.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 010235 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 935 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong surface low will lift from the Southeast early this morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight, where it will stall through Wednesday before continuing northward into eastern Canada late this week. High pressure in the system's wake will build northeastward into the eastern U.S. Wednesday and Thursday before moving offshore Thursday night and Friday. Another system may affect the region this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. 9:30 PM Update .

No significant changes to the previous forecast. The excitement for the day has ended with rain having mainly come to an end, save for a few light showers lingering over northern New Jersey. Several hydrologic products remain in effect for ongoing flooding on some area creeks and streams, but no additional rainfall is expected tonight. Otherwise, it will be a warmer than average night with a lingering light breeze and mostly cloudy conditions keeping temperatures elevated after a very warm day today. Previous discussion follows .

The remainder of the overnight period should remain dry, although some SCT- BKN cloud cover may remain. Rather large model spread in overnight lows tonight but think ultimately, given the antecedent warm airmass, that the cold/dry air advection will be able to win out. Consequently expect lows will generally drop into the low to mid 40s, with upper 40s possible closer to the coast.

Tuesday: The cold core mid-lvl low will meander towards our area on Tuesday which will probably support at least BKN-OVC cloud cover, and a chance for some showery precipitation. Think that any precip would be most likely over the Poconos, closer to the wrap around precip and residual LE streamers (although the 850 flow direction is not particularly favorable for our area). Given considerable cold advection during the day expect that a changeover to mix or snow will be possible during the day over the Poconos. However, don't expect much in the way of accumulations unless precip lingers into Tuesday night when temperatures cool down. We should also mix fairly well during the day tomorrow so expect breezy conditions with wind gusts 25-30mph possible, with stratocu also becoming quite abundant during the daytime hours.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The large-scale pattern changes little Tuesday night and Wednesday, though the pressure gradient should be on a diminishing trend during this period. Nevertheless, another breezy day should be expected Wednesday, and periodic bouts of snow showers may occur in the Poconos. Models continue to look a little on the dry side in our northwest CWA, and the proximity of model-derived QPF is concerning enough to keep a mention of snow showers in Carbon and Monroe Counties through Wednesday. Again, not expecting anything significant, but occasional light snow showers seem probable during this period.

Wednesday will be colder than Tuesday, as cold advection continues to the south of the stalled cyclone. Expect highs in 30s in the Poconos and far northwest New Jersey and in the 40s elsewhere. By Wednesday night, the low to our north will begin to accelerate northward into eastern Canada, as it is kicked by a digging vort max in Ontario. This will allow a surface high in the Southeast to build northeastward toward the Eastern Seaboard. As winds diminish in this pattern, a good night of radiational cooling is expected. Trended lows downward Wednesday night, now firmly below model consensus.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The main concern for the medium-range forecast is the ultimate evolution of the large-scale pattern Friday through Sunday.

Quiet weather is expected Thursday, as midlevel ridging begins to affect the area. With rising heights, expect highs to be a little warmer than Wednesday, with winds lighter.

Model agreement goes off the rails Friday through the weekend, with run-to-run and model-to-model consistency seemingly absent for the past 48 hours. Models are really struggling with three distinct synoptic-scale features of interest: (1) a digging vort max in eastern Canada and the adjacent Northeast on Thursday and Friday, (2) a southern-stream perturbation that ejects eastward and interacts with the eastern Canada vort max, and (3) another digging vort max from central Canada, which acts to kick (1) and (2) eastward with time.

The GFS and CMC solutions look somewhat similar to each other but nothing similar to their simulations from 24 hours ago, with a somewhat progressive/elongated system moving through the eastern U.S. Friday and Saturday. This scenario poses a precipitation risk as early as Thursday night, with temperatures perhaps cold enough at onset for a wintry mix northwest of the Fall Line. The GFS is much deeper with the system, though, and ejects it on a farther-east track, which would be even more favorable for some wintry precipitation in the northwest CWA. Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF does not look remotely similar, with the southern-stream system shoved south of the area given the faster timing of the northern-stream vort max. This behavior was seen to some degree in last night's simulation, but the antecedent 12z counterpart solutions looked nothing like this pattern evolution. Given ensemble output, this solution seems lower probability but cannot be ruled out entirely.

The bottom line is that the Friday through Sunday period has the potential to be unsettled in our area, but there is little confidence in the sensible-weather details at this stage. A broad brush of slight-to-chance PoPs and temperatures near seasonal averages is appropriate at this stage. Eventually, the deterministic models develop a strong storm in the western Atlantic and/or New England early next week, which would spell windy conditions and potential for some showery precipitation (perhaps of the wintry variety).

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Some lingering MVFR is possible through about 05z, but mainly VFR conditions are expected. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . MVFR ceilings possible, mainly in the morning due to showers, especially north and west of KPHL. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 30 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday night and Wednesday . VFR with west or southwest winds 5 to 15 kt, with gusts to 20+ kt on Wednesday. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR with west to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night and Friday . Restrictions possible with a chance of rain. There is some potential for a wintry mix northwest of PHL. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Very low confidence.

MARINE. All Gale Warnings have now been cancelled or allowed to expire. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all the Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware Bay. On Delaware Bay, although winds will likely relax below SCA criteria for a time overnight, an SCA up there with the anticipation that gusts will increase again early enough tomorrow morning to justify keeping the hazards "simple". Otherwise SCA conditions will prevail through Tuesday with seas remaining rather elevated (10-12 ft this evening then more 8-10ft tonight into Tuesday). Gusts will relax overnight before increasing again to around 30 kts on Tuesday. Can't rule out a few isolated gales on Tuesday but don't think these will be overly widespread or long lasting.

Outlook .

Tuesday night and Wednesday . Advisory conditions probable, with winds west to southwest 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet Tuesday night and 4 to 7 feet on Wednesday, subsiding with time.

Wednesday night . Advisory conditions possible, with west winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday through Friday . Sub-advisory conditions expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. For the Little Assawoman Bay and the Barnegat Bay, levels continue to rise. We have issued a Coastal Flood Statement through this evening and will continue to monitor these areas.

The tidal Delaware River: The surge of water up the Delaware Bay combined with increasing freshwater runoff has yielded tidal levels higher than guidance was suggesting. As a result, tidal levels have risen above advisory levels and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued and is in effect through 5 PM.

The eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay: Strong southeast winds combined with a later high tide seem to suggest minor flooding is possible, if not probable, in tidal portions of eastern Maryland. Will monitor observations closely, with an advisory issuance possible if upstream (lower bay) observations confirm suspicions that models are underforecasting this potential. High tide is late this afternoon and early this evening in these areas.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . Carr/O'Brien Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/Meola/O'Brien Marine . CMS/Carr/O'Brien Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi63 min 57°F10 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi59 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 56°F 998.9 hPa (+1.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi39 min S 9.7 G 14 56°F998.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi59 min WSW 5.1 G 6 52°F 48°F998.8 hPa (+1.0)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 39 mi89 min Calm 54°F 999 hPa53°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi83 min W 5.1 G 6 52°F 997.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 42 mi59 min 56°F 53°F997.5 hPa (+0.9)
MHRN6 42 mi59 min SW 8 G 9.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi59 min WSW 8.9 G 15 58°F 997.8 hPa (+0.9)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 47 mi59 min 57°F 54°F998.4 hPa (+0.9)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi59 min 56°F 56°F999.9 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ10 mi63 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast56°F55°F97%998.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi59 minS 64.00 miFog/Mist52°F52°F100%998.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi63 minS 510.00 miFair51°F50°F96%999.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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--S9S7S8S6S5SW6SW4
1 day agoSW5CalmSW6W6SW6SW5SW5W7SW7W6W8SW5SW7SW4S4S3S3S5SW3S3CalmSE4SE6SE6
2 days agoCalmW5W3CalmCalmSW3CalmW3W8W12W8
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W8W5W7NW4W4NW4NW4NW5NW4W3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:18 AM EST     0.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:05 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:23 PM EST     0.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:26 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.30.20.10.1000.10.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.20.10000.10.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:04 AM EST     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:29 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     2.43 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:05 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:42 PM EST     -2.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:03 PM EST     1.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:05 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1.8-2.1-1.8-0.70.71.82.42.31.60.6-0.3-1.2-1.9-2.5-2.7-2-0.80.51.41.91.60.90.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.