Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leisure Village East, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:42PM Saturday August 24, 2019 12:15 AM EDT (04:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:08AMMoonset 2:53PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 920 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Overnight..N winds around 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 920 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will continue to slowly push south as high pressure builds to our north through early next week. The high will try to spread down the east coast, but not fully make it into the area. The high will retreat north and east next Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow an area of low pressure to lift northward off the eastern seaboard during the mid week period and a cold front to track through the area later next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisure Village East, NJ
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location: 40.03, -74.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240110
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
910 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will continue to slowly push south as high pressure
builds to our north through early next week. The high will try to
spread down the east coast, but not fully make it into the area. The
high will retreat north and east next Tuesday and Wednesday. This
will allow an area of low pressure to lift northward off the eastern
seaboard during the mid week period and a cold front to track
through the area later next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As expected most of the early precipitation has cleared our
area, with low-mid lvl cloud cover also retreating
southeastward as considerably drier air (pwats in the 0.6-0.7
inch range) filters in the from the nw. Consequently expect a
dry night over the vast majority of the area with limited cloud
cover apart from cirrus. The lone exception may be southern
delmarva and far southern nj where some low-mid lvl cloud cover
may persist a few more hours. Also can't completely rule out
some weak showers over southern DELMARVA tonight as a frontal
wave pushes out to sea, but expect this activity to largely
stay offshore.

Otherwise should be a fairly cool night with mins in the
50s to lower 60s with the warmest lows in the urban corridor,
delmarva, and coastal nj. Northerly winds may increase a bit
after about midnight which may not allow us to get quite as cool
as this airmass would support (although we will still be below
normal).

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
High pressure is forecast to be located in eastern ontario and
southern quebec on Saturday. The air mass is anticipated to
expand southward into our region.

We are expecting a mostly sunny sky for eastern pennsylvania and
northern new jersey. Partly sunny conditions are forecast for
northeastern maryland, delaware and southern new jersey. There is a
slight chance of a light shower in the afternoon in those areas due
to the onshore flow, but most locations will remain dry.

A northeast wind at 8 to 14 mph is expected for Saturday. Highs will
likely favor the 75 to 80 degree range with low humidity levels.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Cooler conditions everywhere with small pops across the coastal
plain will start the long term period. An increase in temperatures
and greater chances of precipitation will return by the middle of
next week and persist through late week.

As we start the weekend, Saturday is expected to be a september-like
day. High pressure will be building to our north across eastern
canada, with our area on the far southern edge. This will keep an
easterly flow across the area, and as a trough low aloft moves
across the area, temperatures will cool to near or below normal.

Dewpoints will be in the comfortable 50s. Dry weather is expected,
with mainly afternoon evening clouds due to the trough low moving
overhead. The exception could be the nj coast and DELMARVA as the
onshore flow helps to produce some light rain.

As we move into Sunday and Monday, the easterly flow will continue
as high pressure builds a little farther southward across new
england. The high will try to nose its way down the east coat toward
the mid atlantic region during this time as well. Guidance continues
to indicate precipitation developing across the area during this
period, so we will have a slight chance chance of showers Sunday
through Monday. However, it may just end up being more cloudy rather
than rainy as some stratocumulus clouds could develop with the
persistent easterly flow. Regardless, if it does rain, it is
expected to be light as pw values are mostly an inch or less.

As we move into Tuesday through Thursday, unsettled weather could
return to the area. An area of low pressure is forecast to be
lifting northward off the east coast Tuesday through Thursday. At
the same time, a cold front is expected to approach from the west
during the day Wednesday into Thursday. There are some timing
differences with these systems. However, there will be an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday and continuing
through Thursday.

With the region expected to be behind the cold front on Friday,
precipitation chances will be on the decline. Little temperature
change is expected at the moment behind the front.

Aviation 01z Saturday through Wednesday
Tonight...VFR with a decrease in cloud cover. Northerly wind 5 to 10
knots.

Saturday...VFR. North to northeast wind around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions
possible at kacy and kmiv as an onshore flow generates some clouds.

Winds generally NE 5-10 knots.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. MVFR conditions possible at
kacy and kmiv as an onshore flow generates some clouds drizzle light
rain. Low confidence. NE winds 5-10 kts with gusts up to 20 knots
possible.

Sunday night-Tuesday... More widespread MVFR conditions developing
with the persistent onshore flow. E to NE winds 5-10 kts with gusts
up to 20 kts possible.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR as the onshore loses its grip across the
region. Winds less than 10 kts.

Marine
A northerly wind around 10 to 15 knots for tonight is expected to
become northeast 15 to 20 knots on Saturday. Wave heights on our
ocean waters should build around 4 feet. Our current forecast is
borderline for a small craft advisory on Saturday. If wind and wave
conditions appear to begin trending higher than anticipated, we may
eventually need to issue a small craft advisory for Saturday on our
ocean waters.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Low end SCA conditions possible due to long fetch e
to NE winds developing.

Sunday-Wednesday... A prolonged low end SCA may be needed through the
period as long fetch E to NE winds persist.

Rip currents...

increasing northeasterly winds and seas building to around 4 ft
by the afternoon will result in a moderate risk of rip
currents on Saturday.

This elevated rip current risk (either moderate or at times
high) is expected to persist beyond Saturday until at least
Tuesday as a prolonged period of onshore flow and elevated seas
looks likely.

Tides coastal flooding
A prolonged northeast to east flow is expected Saturday through at
least Tuesday. This persistent onshore fetch, combined with
increasing astronomical tides due to an approaching new moon on
Thursday will likely lead to increasing coastal water levels.

Guidance is already indicating that minor coastal flooding is
becoming more likely Monday and Tuesday over delaware bay and
portions of the nj shore.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kruzdlo
near term... Carr
short term... Iovino
long term... Kruzdlo robertson
aviation... Iovino kruzdlo
marine... Carr iovino kruzdlo
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi46 min 76°F3 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi46 min N 5.1 G 8 71°F 78°F1017.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi26 min N 16 G 19 73°F 74°F2 ft1017.2 hPa59°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi46 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 81°F1018.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 39 mi46 min WNW 1.9 46°F 1017 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi40 min N 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 81°F1018 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 42 mi46 min 71°F 77°F1018.1 hPa
MHRN6 42 mi46 min NNW 5.1 G 7
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi46 min NNW 5.1 G 6 71°F 1017.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 47 mi46 min 71°F 77°F1017.9 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi46 min 68°F 68°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ10 mi2.3 hrsNW 310.00 miFair67°F64°F91%1017.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi76 minNW 410.00 miFair64°F64°F100%1017.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi2.3 hrsN 010.00 miFair0°F0°F%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NW3--N3----W4NW5NW7--NW8N10NW9NW5NW8W6NW10NW6W3W4CalmNW3NW3
1 day ago--SW5----SW4SW5--SW5W4--W10W11W8W8SW8W11W8SW5W7SW5SW4SW5S7S6
2 days ago----------CalmCalmCalmS3----SW8SW11SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:21 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:09 PM EDT     0.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:58 AM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:10 PM EDT     2.29 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:46 PM EDT     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.31.61.30.5-0.3-0.9-1.4-1.6-1.7-1.3-0.40.91.82.321.20.2-0.6-1.3-1.7-2-2.1-1.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.