Wayne Lakes, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wayne Lakes, OH

April 16, 2024 5:12 PM EDT (21:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:57 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM
Moonrise 12:19 PM   Moonset 2:53 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wayne Lakes, OH
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon with well above normal temperatures expected. The area dries out Thursday before another system arrives Thursday night into Friday, bringing renewed chances for rain and storms. A notable cool down will occur this weekend.

Any remaining precipitation that will have fired off during the afternoon hours should be lifting north of the region with the warm front boundary by the start of the near term period, leaving the ILN CWA well in the warm sector. CAMs are pretty consistent with the signal for elevated convection to move through during the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Given the surface inversion that should be in place current thinking is that severe storms should not really be a threat. With that being said, ample shear will be in place with DCAPE values of over 800 overnight... so cannot completely rule out the potential for strong/damaging winds with a stronger storm.
Finally, any stronger storms may have the potential to have high rain rates given PWATs 200% + of normal with pretty moist vertical profiles.
Additionally, winds begin to pick up out of the south overnight as the nose of the LLJ creeps into our area. Some question as to how much of these winds will mix down during the nighttime hours, so started with the (typically more robust) NBM but then massaged wind speeds back slightly until sunrise.

The bulk of the overnight precipitation should be moving east out of the area by sunrise Wednesday, leaving some lingering showers through the region. As we begin daytime mixing/heating, wind speeds will pick up notably, with southerly/southwesterly gusts around 30 MPH by Wednesday early afternoon. High temperatures reach the mid/ upper 70s across the region.

The bigger question mark for Wednesday revolves around the potential for severe weather in the afternoon. Quite decent bulk shear, really through much of the CWA, around 40-50 knots, with subtle turning in the low levels, ample DCAPE, and decent low/mid level lapse rates would behoove a "all hazards" severe threat
early morning convection and lingering cloud cover may inhibit warm sector destabilization. The cold front looks to push through the area by early/mid afternoon hours, quickly pinching off the warm sector and all instability. Either way, as the cold front moves through the region, it should force precipitation out ahead of it, with more robust coverage in north central Ohio.
Again, any storms will have the capability of producing high rainfall rates, despite being more progressive in nature. Therefore, isolated areas of flooding cannot be ruled out, especially given saturated soils.

After the cold frontal passage, winds turn to out of the west and decrease in intensity. Clouds clear out as we head into the overnight hours and temperatures fall to the low/mid 50s.

Weak mid level ridging will shift east across the mid Ohio Valley during the day on Thursday. This should help keep us dry through the daytime period with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s in the south. Clouds will be on the increase through Thursday afternoon ahead of an approaching mid level short wave.

Widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms will overspread the area Thursday evening and continue Thursday night and into Friday morning as the short wave energy and its associated surface low move through the Ohio Valley. There remains some uncertainty with the exact track of the surface low. Suppose at least some lower end severe threat may be possible if the low tracks far enough north and we are able to pull some surface based instabilities up into our area.

A west to northwest flow pattern will then remain in place across the region through the weekend and into early next week. A broad area of surface high pressure over the Plains will gradually build southeast across the Ohio Valley to the southeast US through Monday.
This will help keep our area dry but seasonably cool through Monday with daytime highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows in the 30s both Saturday night and Sunday night. Some short wave energy will eventually drop down from the northwest late in the period, leading to some lower end pops on Tuesday. Temperatures will begin to moderate slowly with highs on Tuesday in the 60s.

VFR conditions to start the period. There is an isolated chance for afternoon thunderstorms, however, due to low confidence on timing/ location, did not include in TAFs for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions remain in place through Tuesday evening into the early overnight before the next system moves in from the west.

Rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive from west to east around 05Z Wednesday. CIGs will drop down to MVFR on the tail end of this precip and isolated VSBY drops are possible with heavier showers. Additionally, wind picks up out of the south during the overnight hours, gusting to 25 knots. Have included a brief period of LLWS at KDAY and may end up needing to add this in at other locations.

The first round of showers moves east out of the region by 14Z-ish Wednesday, leaving MVFR CIGs behind. Winds continue to pick up, out of the south/southwest, gusting to 30 knots by Wednesday afternoon. Another round of showers and storms will move into the region Wednesday afternoon into evening. Have hinted at this in the longer KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR CIGs /VSBYs are possible Thursday evening into Friday. Wind gusts around 30 knots are possible Friday.


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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KVES DARKE COUNTY,OH 14 sm22 minSSW 10G1610 smPartly Cloudy81°F52°F37%29.93
KRID RICHMOND MUNI,IN 21 sm17 minS 1110 smClear81°F57°F45%29.94
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Wilmington, OH,

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