Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wayne Lakes, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) An active weather pattern returns mid-week with a return of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Weak troughing over the Midwest will bring a chance of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms to the CWA Thursday afternoon. They should die down with the loss of daytime heating, but a few models bring this activity back during the overnight hours. The weak troughing remains over the Midwest but slowly ekes it's way toward the CWA, keeping showers and possible thunderstorms over the CWA
This lasts until Saturday when the trough axis crosses the CWA, turning off any rainfall Sat night. More showers are possible early Sunday as the cold air on west-northwest wind aloft interacts with the early sunshine, but this may be an artifact of s/w energy working through in the upper level flow.

Likewise, Monday is in question and deterministic models are going dry, but the ensemble NBM keeps a chance through the day and even brings likely pops to the nrn CWA in the late day and overnight. This uncertainty carries into Wednesday to round out what looks to be a somewhat active period punctuated by showers and possibly some thunderstorms.

Temperatures will generally be in the mid-upper 80s, with some lower 80s noted on Fri/Sat underneath the mean trough. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s, which combined with increased moisture and shower chances should lead to some sticky and humid days.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Any showers this afternoon look to be favored near but more southeast of the I-71 corridor, triggered by daytime heating. Still did not see enough of an agreement between models to go higher than a 30% probability from LUK to ILN to CMH/LCK.

West wind under 8kt today will evolve from a light/variable this morning, then turn more se overnight and again become west tomorrow.
However, the se wind overnight will be 1-3kt and a variable direction was preferred.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.