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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 133 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely through the day. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ500 133 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will remain near the waters through Wednesday before pushing offshore Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the waters Friday into Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday with several weak pieces of energy crossing the waters early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed late Friday, and will likely be needed behind the front on Saturday.

FXUS61 KCTP 040620 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
The string of unseasonably warm days and comfortably cool nights with morning valley fog will continue through midweek. A drastic change in the weather pattern is expected to unfold Friday into early next week with periods of rain/showers along with breezy and noticeably cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Nighttime microphysics loop starting to show deeper river valley fog over parts of the Central and North Central Mountains, as skies remain clear throughout setting the stage for ideal radiational fog. We expect valley fog to become widespread with areas of locally dense valley fog possible from the predawn hours through early-mid morning Wed. Low temps in the 50s are essentially neutral trending (+/-3F night over night) and remain +10-15F above early October climo.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Fog to start gives way to another summer-like day. It'll be mostly sunny and very warm for early October. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s run +10-20F above daily climo. Record max temps for 10/4 at BFD and AOO will likely be broken/challenged (see climo section).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly clear skies Wednesday night and perhaps a bit more mixing of dry air from a few KFT AGL by a freshening southerly wind just above the surface should lead to notably less in the way of fog, but there will still likely be patchy 1/2-1SM fog seen in some locations, especially from the Susq Valley east.

Models hint at a stratus deck advecting north into the CWA Thursday afternoon and holding tough into Friday. Temps Wed night will be a few deg F higher than recent nights due to the clouds and perhaps a light southerly breeze.

High temps Thursday will slide by a few to several deg F (3-4 deg F), compared to Tuesday and Wednesday's afternoon maxes.

All current guidance pushes a series of cold fronts through the area Fri PM into Sat AM, accompanied by a round of showers and possible tsra. In its wake, latest GEFS and ECENS indicate the associated cut off upper low will linger over the Eastern Grt Lks into early next week. This scenario supports a high confidence of below normal temperatures Saturday-Monday, along with breezy conditions.

The arriving airmass should be plenty cold enough to support lake effect Saturday into Monday. However, the exact position of the upper low will determine how favorable the setup is for lake effect showers over the Alleghenies. Some model Tuesday guidance indicates surface ridging and a westerly boundary layer flow could keep the highest POPs north of the border. At any rate, cold temps aloft should at least generate scattered, diurnally- driven showers, with the potential of a steadier lake-effect rain over the NW Mtns. The lowest heights and greatest 2m temp anomalies are targeted for Sunday, when readings are likely to be stuck in the 40s over the Alleghenies all day.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Patchy dense fog will is beginning to form across central PA and will impact most airfields across central PA overnight. A similar pattern suggests that locations that received restrictions last night will be the most likely to have lowered cigs/vsby. The most questionable remains BFD where lowered winds and clear skies could allow for long-duration fog restrictions; however, some confidence is low at this time.

Prevailing VFR once fog dissipates ~13-14Z throughout Wednesday evening. Environmental set-up overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning suggests valley fog at locations that have experienced restrictions the past two evenings, thus have leaned on persistence towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thu...AM valley fog possible mainly central and eastern TAFs.

Fri...Rain/showers and sub-VFR likely.

Sat...Rain/showers and sub-VFR likely especially western airspace. Wind shift with passing cold front; turning breezy with sfc wind gusts from ~270 degrees 20-30 kts.

Sun...Showers west with IFR/MVFR cigs. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Continued breezy with sfc wind gusts from ~270 degrees 25-30kts.

CLIMATE
A couple of daily high temperature records are within reach at Altoona, Williamsport, Lancaster, and State College (STCP1) on Wednesday 10/4:

Altoona: 83 in 2017 Williamsport: 85 in 2007 Lancaster: 85 in 2007 State College: 84 in 1919

Bradford could tie or set new record highs for several days this week:

10/2: 79 in 2019 *RECORD TIED 10/3: 78 in 1959 *RECORD BROKEN; 82F at 227pm 10/4: 78 in 2017 10/5: 81 in 2007 10/6: 79 in 2013

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Tue -- 02:07 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:11 AM EDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:59 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:12 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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