Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seven Springs, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered rain showers continue through the morning and into the day.
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The morning will begin with scattered showers over the area. The continued saturation of the area will make for some fog concerns through the morning and much of the day. Most of the concern will be in the higher terrain in PA and WV.

Low pressure will remain parked over the Great Lakes. This will keep unsettled weather across the upper Ohio Valley through the time period with rain chances continuing. Expect higher coverage in showers this afternoon with the help of diurnal heating. Instability however will be little to nil through the day owing to cloud cover and weak forcing. The lacking depth of the moisture over the area through the day will mean that excessive rainfall concerns will end this morning with the passing wave and day time heating through the coming day will yield little concern for rainfall.

Heading into tonight, scattered showers will persist as the low remains in place over the Great Lakes. While the threat of flooding will diminish due to the lack of moisture and greater efficiency. However, the persistent rainfall will keep fog concerns in place through the overnight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

-Rain showers will persist on through Friday and Saturday.
-Well below normal temperatures expected.
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The upper low will hang around the Great Lakes region for one more day but will be nudged to the east a bit. This will put the area in northwest making for lake enhanced showers across the area. Showers will be strengthened with the daytime heating across the area. However, any flood concerns should be nil.

The upper low will finally lift into the New England area for Saturday. However, the northwest flow will allow for lake produced showers for the area Saturday keeping pops confined to the northern counties. Subsidence will increase but northwest flow will still lead to a few showers lingering over the northern counties, though chances are lowest by this time.

Cold advection will keep temperatures well below seasonal averages through the period - with highs barely hitting 60 when we should be in the 70's in late May.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Break in precipitation on Sunday.
- Unsettled weather through midweek.
- Moderating temperatures but still below normal.
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By Saturday night and into Sunday, high pressure will return to the region for a short time. Despite surface high, the Middle Atlantic will see some zonal flow aloft with numerous shortwaves tracking from a northwest to southeast movement. By the Tuesday and into Wednesday period, the upper level pattern will begin to form another trough over the east keeping unsettled weather in the forecast. Thus, after a dry Sunday, will keep precipitation chances in the forecast from Monday through mid week.

Given the northwest flow in place through the Monday to Wednesday period, there remains a bit of uncertainty in the extended. The trough expected to set up by Wednesday will add some instability to the region and will remain a day to watch for potential unsettled weather.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Ceilings continue to remain low MVFR to high IFR and are expected to remain that way for the duration of the period as an upper low continues to pull in cooler air, forcing saturation and persistent shower activity from the west. Hourly rain chances remain 30% to 50% through 14Z at ZZV and MGW, but chances are roughly 60% to 90% elsewhere, increasing for all areas to 85% to 100% in the afternoon.

Chances of MVFR cigs for the whole period remain at 90% to 100%, while chances of IFR hover around 50% to 80% generally, with the lowest chances for southern ports (HLG, ZZV, MGW). Lower ceilings are expected to remain more persistent along the Appalachian ridges as well as at FKL/DUJ. Winds may gust at times during the day with heating raising the mixed layer. With a saturated cool airmass, daytime vis restrictions between 3SM and 5SM are generally most likely.

Lessening shower coverage is forecast overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning, with some cig improvements possible, although at least MVFR is still favored with IFR more likely for FKL and DUJ.

Outlook...
Periods of rain and restrictions (mostly MVFR) are expected to continue on Friday as surface low pressure moves across the region. Conditions are expected to become drier on Saturday with the chance of ceiling restrictions lifting mainly south of PIT.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.