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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1119 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..NE winds 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt... Diminishing to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt late. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers through the night.

ANZ500 1119 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
tropical storm ophelia will approach the area from the south, moving across the mid-atlantic this weekend. Strong wind gusts in excess of 40 to 50 knots are expected over the waters through Sunday morning. The remnant low pressure system will move north of the area by late Sunday, with high pressure building in from the north by Monday, continuing through mid-week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday, and again early next week.

FXUS61 KCTP 231514 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1114 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
The slow moving remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia will lift northward into the Mid Atlantic region this weekend, before shifting eastward and pushing out to sea early next week. A weak frontal boundary is expected to remain stalled just to our south and west through much of the week, while a large surface high noses southward from Canada into the northeastern United States.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Clouds now cover all of the CWA, ,but remain thinnest across NW PA. Rain continues to slowly spread northwestward across the area. This rain will largely be beneficial to the driest parts of Central PA.

A breezy northeasterly wind is expected this afternoon, and we could see max gusts reach the 30+ mph across the Lower Susq Valley.

The clouds and rain will keep temperatures on the cool side, with highs holding in the upper 50s to low 60s across the southeastern half of PA. Farther to the northwest, the thinner cloud cover will allow temperatures to approach 70 degrees this aftn.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Latest NHC guidance keeps Ophelia as a TS until the center moves up to the NC/VA border this evening. The focus of the heaviest rain for Central PA will remain over the southeast part of the forecast area, with the heaviest rain falling tonight. Model consensus and NHC track is for the low center of the (expectedly) downgraded depression to inch poleward and a little to the east, only reaching DOV by Sun evening.

Again, the rainfall is now looking a little lighter, but totals of >2" should still occur in the Lower Susq where some instability (mainly aloft) is possible. SPC general thunder area now extends well into the CWA for Day1. Beneficial rainfall is the story of this system for central Pennsylvania as the areas likely to receive the heaviest rain are sorely needing it, namely the Lower Susquehanna River Valley. FFG of 4+"/6hrs means the flood threat is unusually low for a decaying tropical system over PA.

Winds will be less than remarkable for Central PA, even in the Lower Susq. The higher gusts into the L-M30s will be S/E of Harrisburg. Gusts >20KT will be rare N/W of IPT-UNV-JST.

Temps won't drop more than 2-3F tonight in the SE due to the clouds and almost-saturated environment. But, a more-normal drop of 15F is expected in the far NW.

Rain continues, but probably lighter over the CWA on Sunday. It starts to taper off on Sun night, even though the sfc low will be as close as it will be. As the pressure fills, the wind will actually get lighter on Sunday and continue to do so on Mon.
Precip may linger into Monday, but likely be very light and confined to the SE, drying up thru the day. Considered lowering PoPs quite a bit for Sun night and Mon, but we'll pass it along to the next shift in order give us more time to make sure it's the best move. Max temps should be up 5-8F from Sun.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The remnants of Ophelia will push off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday night and accelerate eastward and away from the area on Monday, taking any associated rain with it.

Low-level easterly flow will persist, however, with Canadian high pressure building over southeastern Canada and ridging southward into the northeastern United States. At the same time, a weak frontal boundary will be stalled just to our south and west.

Temperature-wise, expect seasonably cool conditions to persist through the week with highs generally holding in the 60s to low 70s. Precipitation-wise, most of the week should be relatively dry. However, we cannot rule out an outside chc of a shower each day, primarily across southern and western PA.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A steady deterioration from south to north is expected on Saturday for most of the central PA terminal sites. MVFR cigs, along with light rain, should first impact KLNS and KMDT just after daybreak (around 12-13z). Similar restrictions will impact KAOO, KJST, and KUNV by midday (15-16z), then reach KIPT by mid to late afternoon (20-21z). By late morning or the midday hours, IFR ceilings and more persistent, perhaps heavier rains will edge towards KLNS and KMDT. Confidence on this worsening trend in conditions is high, but there is uncertainty in the timing of IFR arrival.

A tight moisture gradient across northwestern PA, plus downsloping E-SE flow, may well keep KBFD restriction free through Saturday, with MVFR cigs possible Sat night. There is medium confidence here.

As for the surface winds, an easterly breeze of 5-10 kt should be prevalent for most of the overnight period, with perhaps some 15-20 kt gusts impinging on KLNS and KMDT towards daybreak.
Saturday, easterly winds will become gusty area-wide, with 20-25 kt gusts common by afternoon. At KMDT and KLNS, some 30-35 kt gusts are possible late in the day. There is fairly high confidence in this wind gust scenario Saturday afternoon into the early evening.

Winds will be even stronger at 2kft AGL, where NE flow is progged to increase to 35-50 kts Saturday. Some LLWS is possible, but left it out of some TAFs for now due to mixing of momentum due to gusts. However, if low levels are more stable and prevent mixing via frequent gusts, LLWS may need to be added to all of the TAFs.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions are likely area-wide, with persistent light rain, and embedded areas of heavier rain in the vicinity of KLNS and KMDT.

Mon-Tue...Improvement is expected this period, although brief restrictions in hit and miss showers are still possible each afternoon.

Wed...VFR.

CLIMATE
The Fall Equinox passed earlier in the night. Welcome to astronomical autumn. No winter on the horizon, as the 8-14 day outlook is for above normal temps, and the October outlook (updated on the 21st) is also for above normal temps over all of the eastern U.S.

The normal first freeze at BFD is the 21st of Sept. We're past then, and with that forecast of above normal temps, sub- freezing temps may not occur at BFD for quite a while. Everyone else usually follows BFD's first freeze by many days to more than a month. MDT's mean first freeze isn't until very late Oct (29th).

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Middle Branch
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Sat -- 01:35 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:45 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
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Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

Fells Point
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:22 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:28 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
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Fells Point, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

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