Thursday, January28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Head, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:12PM Thursday January 28, 2021 4:33 AM EST (09:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:03PMMoonset 8:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Est Thu Jan 28 2021
.gale warning in effect through late Friday night...
Today..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of light freezing spray. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of light freezing spray. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of light freezing spray. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of snow or rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Rain likely in the evening. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain or snow likely in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Rain or snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ400 401 Am Est Thu Jan 28 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure off the carolina coast moves out to sea today as high pressure builds in from the west. The high moves overhead on Saturday before moving offshore Saturday night. Low pressure developing to the west will impact the region Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Head , NJ
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location: 40.06, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 280830 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 330 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure off the Carolina coast moves out to sea today as high pressure builds in from the west. The high moves overhead on Saturday before moving offshore Saturday night. Low pressure developing to the west will impact the region Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Surface low pressure moves off the coast of North Carolina this morning and will remain well south of our area. A trough develops in the mid level flow just behind the surface flow and passes offshore around midday. Some light precipitation may push northward into southern Delaware but it would be pretty light and fairly scattered.

Meanwhile, high pressure will start to build in from the west, tightening up the pressure gradient and enhancing the cold advection through the day, bringing gusty northwest winds to our region. Expect winds to gust around 35 to near 45 mph through the day today. Though the winds will be strong, it doesn't look like we will quite reach Wind Advisory criteria during the day as the best winds look to occur this evening, when mixing is usually less efficient. Winds will not drop off as we head towards sunset (which typically occurs) but will actually increase through the evening as a closed mid level low pushes across the region keeping the pressure gradient tight. The gradient should start to relax some after midnight but we may not lose the gustiness.

Temperatures will be cold and with the wind blowing it will feel even colder. Highs today will struggle to warm in the strong northwest flow and while it may reach into the 30s (especially across southern areas) it will feel on average around 10 to 15 degrees colder than it really is outside. Across the southern Poconos it will struggle to get into the 20s and wind chill will make it feel like it is below 0 outside. Unfortunately, with the wind remaining up overnight, there will be no relief. Skies clear out this afternoon and this will help to drop temperatures tonight. Overnight lows will range from the single digits across the northern zones to near 20 across the southern zones. With the wind chill it will feel like the single digits through the region with the Lehigh Valley, northwest New Jersey and the southern Poconos feeling like it is around -1 to -10 outside. If the wind remains stronger through the night, some parts of northeastern Pennsylvania may near -15 wind chills. Right now it looks like we will fall just short of those values but it will need to be monitored in case a Wind Chill Advisory is needed for late tonight into early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Cold high pressure continues to build in from the west with temperatures running a good 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Wind chills Friday morning will range from the single digits across much of the region to as low as -10 in the southern Poconos. Brisk winds continue through the day before finally diminishing Friday night. Some Lake Effect snow showers may encroach into the southern Poconos on Friday, but really not expecting much more than flurries, and chances are too low to warrant mentioning at this time.

Dry conditions continue into the start of the weekend, but temperatures remain below normal with highs in the 20s to low 30s.

Although winds will become calm with the center of the high passing overhead Saturday night, clouds will build into the region with low pressure developing to the west. This should limit radiational cooling, but low will be quite cold anyway, bottoming out in the single digits in the southern Poconos, and otherwise in the teens and low 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A complex area of low pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will slowly track east on Sunday, and with strong shortwave energy passing through the base of an upper trough, a secondary low will form over the Carolina coast during the day Sunday, and then this low will meander off the Northeast coast Monday before finally departing on Tuesday.

A prolonged period of precipitation will impact the region starting on Sunday and possibly continuing through Tuesday. Models seem to be trending a bit colder, so this could mean a bit more of a prolonged period of wintry weather for the region, but the question is where the heaviest precipitation will fall.

The highest PoPs will be across Delmarva and into southern New Jersey on Sunday, and precip should mostly be snow. However, QPF will be light for most of the region, except for Delmarva and southern New Jersey. In these areas, although precip will start out as snow, temps should warm up enough to allow for a rain/snow mix, and an eventual change to plain rain. Most areas should pick up less than an inch of snow, but the western and southern zones could get 1-2 inches of snow.

There is low confidence in the forecast from there, as there are timing and placement issues with the position of the low, and as a result, this will impact where the bands of the heaviest precip will fall. The other issue is how close the storm will track to the coast, as that will impact the rain/snow line.

At least another day or so is needed to determine how much precip will fall, where it will fall, and in what form.

A period of gusty east to northeast winds is likely on Monday, but not expecting Wind Advisory criteria winds at this time.

Lingering precip possible Tuesday, and then conditions dry out on Wednesday. Temps gradually warm back up to near normal levels into next week.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR. Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 30 to 40 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Northwest winds around 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 40 knots early, dropping down to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after 03Z. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt with 25-35 kt gusts. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday and Monday . VFR initially on Sunday, then MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs in snow. Snow may mix with and change to rain at KACY. MVFR/IFR conditions continue into Monday, but highly uncertain on precipitation type.

MARINE. Gale Warnings are in effect across all area waters through tonight. Strong northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Seas will build to around 5 to 8 feet on the ocean and around 2 to 5 feet on the Delaware Bay. Freezing spray remains possible across the waters tonight.

Outlook .

Friday through Friday night . Gale Warnings extended into Friday night. Freezing spray possible on all waters.

Saturday . Winds should gradually diminish, dropping below 25 kt by mid day Saturday. Freezing spray will also be possible through Saturday morning.

Sunday . Winds and seas should be below SCA criteria.

Sunday night and Monday . Winds will increase and shift from northerly to northeasterly. Gale gusts are possible on Monday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Meola Short Term . MPS Long Term . MPS Aviation . Meola/MPS Marine . Meola/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 24 mi38 min 46°F5 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 27 mi24 min N 21 G 27 45°F1015.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 44 mi64 min NW 6 31°F 1018 hPa21°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi34 min N 19 G 23 45°F1014.5 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ11 mi38 minNNW 1310.00 miOvercast29°F18°F63%1017.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi34 minVar 410.00 miOvercast30°F19°F64%1017.2 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi38 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast30°F20°F66%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE9NE7NE8E7E10E13
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2 days agoNW7W7W7NW8NW6NW8NW9NW5W7W6W5W5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm--NW3NE5NE3CalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:47 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:37 PM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.20.31.32.53.54.24.54.23.42.31.20.3-0.3-0.40.21.22.33.13.63.73.22.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:14 AM EST     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:30 AM EST     2.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:57 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     -2.90 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:18 PM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:13 PM EST     1.99 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-2.1-1.9-0.90.51.72.52.51.90.9-0.1-1-1.9-2.6-2.9-2.4-1.10.21.421.81.10.3-0.6

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