Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elverson, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:48PM Monday April 19, 2021 11:38 PM EDT (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 1:03AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1041 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect late Tuesday night...
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 15 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1041 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will develop to the south tonight through Tuesday night ahead of a strong cold front that will approach from the northwest. The cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build to the south and west through late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elverson , PA
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location: 40.09, -75.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 200140 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 940 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level wave will move out to sea overnight. A brief stint of high pressure will lead to a quiet Tuesday before a surface low organizes to our west. This low will pull a strong cold front across the region on Wednesday. High pressure will build eastward behind this system for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A mid level short wave trough was moving off our coast and out to sea this evening. It will continue to take most of the lingering clouds with it.

Surface high pressure is forecast to nose into our region from the southwest overnight. As a result, we are anticipating a mostly clear sky and a light wind. Low temperatures should favor the 40s.

Tuesday will be the nicest day of the week. With high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast, strong WAA will be underway with a west to southwest flow. Could be a bit breezy, especially going into the afternoon, with winds generally 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Highs will generally be in the lower 70s throughout.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The potential for severe weather continues Wednesday.

A potent shortwave trough will dive southeast across the Midwest Tuesday night. A strengthening 250 mb jet just to our southwest will work in unison with this wave to promote strong cyclogenesis across the central Appalachians into Wednesday morning. With rather impressive PVA ahead of this wave and the aforementioned upper-level forcing, the large scale forcing will most certainly be in place for this feature. The northern origins of the trailing surface high from central Canada will usher in a seasonable cold airmass, which is expected to provide efficient surface lift along the cold front.

While instability isn't expected to be noticeably impressive, strong low-level (speed) shear will support the development of linear storm features. Hi-res guidance is currently forecasting 50-70 knots of 0- 3 km shear. Combined with up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, this will be more than sufficient to support the development of linear storm segments. Completely agree with the 3 km NAM in the forecast of a long QLCS feature moving across the entire CWA early Wednesday afternoon. Waiting as we move into the HRRR and ARW time frames for added confidence but there is good agreement amongst the global guidance so don't expect significant change at this point.

A few showers and a rumble or two of thunder is possible, especially along and north of I-78 Wednesday morning. The more clearing that occurs, the better the surface heating and larger the instability that can be reached. A slower movement of the surface low, with a longer period for strengthening would likely lead to a greater severe threat as we would sit in the warm sector longer. This is one facet that remains to be worked out so to speak. Climatologically, small hail is possible with any of the storms, but strong to damaging winds will be the main risk with these storms. A strong 850 mb LLJ will advect ample moisture ahead of the front, which will lead to locally heavy downpours. Forward motion of the front should preclude widespread flooding, but can't rule out localized urban and poor drainage flooding with half to locally one inch of rainfall. Highs Wednesday will warm into the upper 60s to the south, with low to mid 60s north of I-78. Clearer skies will lead to warmer highs.

Temperatures will plummet behind the front with lows in the low to mid 30s by Thursday morning. A breezy night behind the front should prohibit frost, but went ahead and added patchy frost into areas where the frost-freeze program has started. More of a freeze potential as wind will work against frost potential.

A much quieter and cooler day Thursday with highs in the upper 40s north to lower 50s south with partly cloudy skies. It will remain quite breezy with westerly winds gusts from 20 to 30 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The weather pattern looks to stay fairly busy through the long term as one system will continue to depart early in the period with a brief respite of fair weather Friday into Saturday before the next potential system arrives for later in the weekend. In terms of the details, it will remain a bit breezy Thursday night through Friday as deep low pressure continues to lift north through Atlantic Canada while high pressure sets up to our south. The airmass over the region moderates though so Friday looks to see seasonable temperatures under mainly sunny skies.

Friday night into Saturday, high pressure moves off the east coast as an upper level trough moves in to our west with the next low developing near the SE CONUS. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding how this system tracks with the ECMWF and to a lesser degree the GFS have it moving up the coast and bringing widespread rain and gusty winds late Saturday, Saturday night, and into Sunday. Meanwhile the latest GEM is much weaker and surpressed and has the system missing us to the south. Didn't deviate much from the NBM so am forecasting likely POPs for the majority of the area Saturday night which is when, according to current indications, the system look to make its closest pass.

The aformentioned system should move out by late Sunday with dry weather looking to start next week.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR under a mostly clear sky. Isolated areas of fog are possible but they will likely not affect the TAF sites. Southwest wind 6 knots or less, becoming variable at most locations. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR with scattered clouds. Southwest wind increasing to around 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday . VFR initially with sub-VFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A return to VFR near or after 00Z from west to east as a cold front crosses the region. Southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts from 25 to 30 knots. Winds turn westerly behind the front. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . VFR with westerly winds from 15 to 20 knots and gusts from 25 to 30 knots. High confidence.

Thursday night through Friday . Mainly VFR with W/NW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible both Thursday evening and again by around midday Friday through the afternoon. High confidence.

Friday night through Saturday . Mainly VFR with west winds around 5 knots Friday night becoming SW 5 to 10 knots Saturday. The next system could arrive very late in the day or at night bringing rain and associated restrictions. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on tap through Tuesday. SW winds 10-15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt will develop Tuesday afternoon. Seas generally at or below 3 feet.

Outlook .

Wednesday . SCA conditions developing into the afternoon as southwesterly winds gust from 25 to 30 knots. Seas from 3 to 5 feet.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Gale force wind gusts likely out of the northwest. Seas from 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday night through Friday . SCA conditions likely Thursday night into early Friday before winds subside below SCA levels by late Friday.

Friday night through Saturday . Conditions should be mainly tranquil on the seas through this period with Sub SCA winds/seas. However the next system could bring increasing winds and waves by Saturday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.



Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Iovino/MPS Short Term . Davis Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Davis/Fitzsimmons/Iovino Marine . Davis/Fitzsimmons/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 28 mi50 min 56°F 56°F1011.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 37 mi50 min W 5.1 G 8 52°F 1012.6 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 37 mi50 min 55°F 56°F1011.9 hPa
BDSP1 39 mi50 min 56°F 56°F1012 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 39 mi50 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 58°F1013 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 39 mi50 min 51°F 58°F1012.1 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi62 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1 55°F 54°F1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester County Airport, PA8 mi63 minVar 410.00 miFair50°F45°F82%1012.9 hPa
Pottstown, Pottstown Limerick Airport, PA16 mi44 minN 09.00 miFair45°F42°F90%1012.3 hPa
Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA22 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair51°F43°F74%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQS

Wind History from MQS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W34CalmCalmCalm4S76SW7
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1 day agoCalmCalmW3W3W5NW5SW5W4W3W6W6W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware
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Millside
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:16 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.93.44.85.45.55.14.43.42.41.61.10.911.93.24.14.64.74.33.52.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Edgemoor, Delaware
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Edgemoor
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     5.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:08 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.22.33.95.25.75.65.24.33.32.31.61.10.91.22.23.64.54.84.84.33.42.41.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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