Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brielle, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of the area through 7 PM tonight.

With plenty of humidity, heat indices will be notably above air temps, so have maintained head advisory as inherited for today.
Might flirt with criteria south of the present advisory (where criteria is higher) as well but confidence not quite there yet.
Certainly it will feel very summery for much of the region by early this afternoon.

After that it will probably start to sound rather summery as well as another vort max approaches, and combined with CAPE values likely to exceed 2000 J/kg plus some modest shear, it appears that a round of afternoon/early evening thunderstorms will be a good bet for most of the region. We remain outlooked for a marginal severe weather risk. Storms should be moving along, but locally heavy rains will also be possible given ample moisture.

After the storms dwindle, with the front possibly hung up near NYC, northeastern areas could see a return of some patchy fog/mist/drizzle, but unlike tonight, the majority of the region should just be warm and humid. Lows near or above 70 for most.

A shortwave axis will be located over the Ohio Valley on Thursday morning, shifting eastward towards our area by the evening hours. At the surface, low pressure will be located over portions of Ontario Thursday morning, tracking eastward into southern Quebec and far northern portions of New England through the day. A cold front associated with this surface cyclone will pass through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Ahead of the aforementioned cold front, very warm and moist southwesterly flow will continue across the area. Underneath partly to mostly sunny skies, strong surface heating is anticipated, with temperatures generally climbing into the upper 80s to near 90 across eastern PA and northern NJ, and into the lower 90s near/southeast of the I-95 corridor.

With quite a bit of moisture in place (surface dewpoints in the lower 70s), it will feel quite hot. Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s southeast of the Lehigh Valley and away from the immediate coastal strip. Due to the potentially dangerous heat impacts, a heat advisory will be in effect for the urban corridor through 8 PM Thursday.

In addition to the dangerous heat, severe weather remains a concern Thursday afternoon and evening. Aided by background ascent from the approaching shortwave, the cold front should provide a focus for the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon across western portions of our area, tracking east into the late afternoon and evening hours. The environment ahead of the cold front is expected to become moderately unstable (MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg). Deep layer shear on the order of 30-35 kt will support primarily multicell clusters initially, though a supercell or two cannot be ruled out.
Forecast soundings indicate a fairly deep mixed layer, and strong downdraft winds appear to be the primary threat with this activity. A few instances of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out during the relatively early stages of convective evolution. With time, storms could have a tendency to grow upscale due to strong frontal forcing and possible cold pool development. Should upscale growth occur, the potential would exist for damaging winds to be somewhat widespread, therefore this will need to be monitored closely. Similar to today, PWATs will be in the neighborhood of 2" and forecast soundings indicate tall CAPE profiles supportive of efficient rainfall production.
While widespread flooding concerns are not anticipated, localized urban flooding cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms.

The cold front will clear the area from west to east Thursday night. Behind the front, skies are expected to clear out with a cooler and drier northwest wind. Lows Thursday night are expected to range from near 60 for the Lehigh Valley and northward to the mid-upper 60s across the Delmarva.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Behind the cold front that exits Thursday night, we see some cooler and drier air filter in for Friday. This means temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday which is lower than Thursday's high temperatures. The drier air drops dew points as well for Friday with them mainly hovering around 60. Overall, this will help lower heat index values for Friday compared to Wednesday and Thursday. Our main weather feature for Friday will be an expansive area of high pressure which leads to a sunny day. We stay dry and quiet with a mainly clear sky Friday night. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
During the long term period, an expansive area of high pressure will be our main weather feature at the surface with an upper-level ridge also building in. A weak disturbance may rotate through over the weekend leading to a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly Sunday. Overall, the weekend looks pretty dry. Saturday will be mostly sunny with Sunday being mostly to partly sunny. Dry weather and sunshine then continues into the beginning of next week.

The main concern during this period is the potential for dangerous heat, specifically Sunday into the beginning of next week. Saturday will be warmer than Friday with highs in the 80s across the area.
Dew points on Saturday are in the 60s which keeps heat index values in the 80s.

By Sunday, we start to see the heat and humidity build leading to the potential for dangerous heat. On Sunday, highs are in the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points hovering close to 70. This leads to heat index values of around 95-100 degrees. The heat and humidity continues to build for Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures both days will be in the 90s area wide and dew points will range from the low to mid 70s. Heat index values will potentially reach 95-105 degrees. The only exceptions will be the Poconos and the coastal areas where it will be slightly cooler.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Primarily MVFR/VFR. Showers and scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon will be possible, causing potential sub-VFR ceilings once again. South-southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Showers/storms early should diminish and we may actually stay VFR for most terminals all night as south- southwesterly flow remains dominant, though still 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR in the morning. Scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours could lead to periods of sub-VFR conditions. Improvement back to VFR is anticipated overnight Thursday night.

Friday through Monday...VFR.

MARINE
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM from Sandy Hook to Greaet Egg Inlet due to areas of dense fog with visibilities 1 nautical mile or less.

Otherwise, no wind/sea hazards are in effect through tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon. South-southwest around 10-15 kt later today into tonight. Seas of 3-4 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Conditions may briefly approach SCA criteria during the afternoon, with southerly wind of 20-25 kt and wave heights of 4-5 ft. Scattered showers and storms could also lead to locally rough seas during the afternoon and evening.

Friday through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 ft.

Rip Currents...

For today, winds become south-southwesterly and increase to 10-15 mph. Swell initially begins onshore before also turning to the south-southwest, becoming more shore parallel with the swell period remaining around 6-7 seconds throughout. As a result, breaking waves in the surf zone look to be around 2-3 feet for the central and northern Jersey Shore and 2 feet or less southwards of there. Therefore, a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents is forecast for Jersey Shore beaches from Atlantic City northwards today with a LOW risk for the Cape May shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Thursday, winds and swell remain oriented south- southwesterly. However, winds increase to 15-20 mph with seas increasing to around 4 feet. As a result, breaking waves in the surf zone of 2-3 feet look to occur across all beaches.
Therefore, a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents is forecast for all beaches on Thursday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ070-071.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ104-106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ017>019.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ015.
DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>452.