Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brielle, NJ

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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:33PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:42 PM EST (04:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:45PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1004 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
.gale watch in effect from Monday morning through late Monday night...
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely early in the morning, then rain in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the late morning and early afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 7 to 9 ft after midnight. Periods of drizzle. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed night..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 1004 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure currently located to our west will progress towards the area through Sunday morning before eventually moving offshore Sunday afternoon. A complex low pressure system will move in from the southwest on Monday and will only slowly lift north of the area on Tuesday. High pressure will then build in towards the area from the south through Thursday, before moving away from the area on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brielle , NJ
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location: 40.1, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 290204 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 904 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure currently located to our west will progress towards the area through Sunday morning before eventually moving offshore Sunday afternoon. A complex low pressure system will move in from the southwest on Monday and will only slowly lift north of the area on Tuesday. High Pressure will then build in towards the area from the south through Thursday, before moving away from the area on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Surface high pressure over the Midwest builds east tonight and will be centered over the southern Appalachians by daybreak Sunday. With the center of the high building east, skies will be clear and winds drop off and become light and variable after midnight tonight.

H8 temps will rise from just above 0C this evening to +3C to +5C by daybreak. However, radiational cooling conditions will become fairly strong after midnight, and lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for much of the region, except the mid 30s in/around Philly and portions of Delmarva.

High pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the day Sunday. Winds become southwest 5-10 mph during the day. Plenty of sunshine for most of the day, but high clouds may begin to increase towards evening.

Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday, generally in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A dynamic weather situation will unfold over the Eastern US in the short term period, as a southern branch mid-lvl low phases with an amplifying northern branch shortwave in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley. At the surface, substantial pressure falls will be observed over much of the East Coast late Sunday night into Monday as cyclogenesis occurs over the Applachians quickly displacing Sunday's High Pressure to the NE.

Things will actually start out rather quietly on Sunday night, as the aforementioned processes will just be initiating upstream of the area, and most of the overnight period will be dry. Cloud cover will however gradually increase, with lowering cloud bases, through the night, and this increase in cloud cover combined with some (weak initially) low-lvl warm advection should result in min temperatures being reached earlier than usual and then gradually increasing towards daybreak.

The bulk of the rainfall with this system will occur Monday morning into early Monday afternoon (progressing from SW-NE) as warm air/moisture advection ramps up on the eastern flank of the deepening low. Expect this initial round of precipitation, which will be driven primarily by warm advection with additional dynamical support from the southern branch, will be more stratiform in nature, but could still be locally heavy given the anomalously high moisture transport (NAEFS IVT is > 99th percentile from 12-18Z Monday). A secondary round of more convective precipitation will be possible Monday afternoon as guidance indicates that some modest sfc-based instability will be present in the warm sector. As mentioned in previous discussions, and highlighted in SPC's SWODY3 our area, given the impressive low-lvl kinematic fields there remains the potential for locally strong wind gusts with any convection that can form (independent of whether this convection is sufficiently vertically developed to generate lightning/thunder). Forecast rainfall amounts remain consistent with the previous packages with amounts in the 1-1.5 inch range. Although the QPF fields could get messier depending upon how much of Monday's rainfall is convective.

The thinking on the synoptic wind threat remains the same, i.e. there will be the potential for wind advisory conditions along the coast (where the LLJ is most intense and low-lvl stability weakest), but confidence in inland locations reaching advisory criteria is fairly low. Similar to the previous shift went on the high end of guidance for both temperature and dewpoint on Monday, and wouldn't be surprised to see fairly widespread mid to upper 60s for highs.

The initial sfc. low should shift north of the area Monday evening, and guidance indicates (both via RH fields, and isentropic streamlines) that the system's dry slot will likely move over us Monday night. Consequently expect precipitation will be limited overnight, and would potentially even come in the form of drizzle given how dry the mid-lvls are.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Synoptic Overview:

The amplified mid-lvl low will slowly shift NE towards the area on Tuesday and then slowly drift north through the middle of the week. Behind this low another shortwave will dive down the eastern flank of the high amplitude western US ridge, and will likely become cut off over the Central US. Our area may then become nestled under a shortwave ridge between these two lows through the end of the work week. The southern low looks to finally become reabsorbed into the westerlies on Saturday and then will quickly pivot towards our area next weekend bringing a return to unsettled weather.

Dailies:

Tuesday . All 12Z guidance with the notable exception of the NAM indicates that a secondary low will form in the vicinity of our area on Tuesday, and this low combined with the approaching mid-lvl cold core (which should make its closest approach Tuesday) may serve to generate at least showery precipitation through the day on Tuesday. Additionally this low may intensify sufficiently north of the area, to result in another day of breezy conditions (after a brief lull Monday night). The NAM is an outlier as it depicts the mid-lvl low lifting nearly directly north rather than northeast (resulting in much higher heights over our area), and shows the secondary low moving well east of the area. For now will side with consensus and bet on Tuesday being another showery, unsettled day (particularly over western portions of our area, nearer to the mid-lvl low). That being said, moisture and lift will be limited compared to Monday so precip amounts should be on the lighter side and despite continued cold advection the column should remain warm enough that precipitation falls as rain (unless precipitation lingers into Tuesday night).

Wednesday-Friday . The low will finally clear the area to the north on Wednesday and the middle of the week should be generally tranquil as High Pressure builds in from the SW. Can't totally rule out some cloud cover or flurries up north as various shortwaves pivot around the base on the northern low (now in Canada), but think these features remain sufficiently low amplitude to not impact us much. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the extended with highs in the low to mid 40s, with a slight warmup back into the lower 50s expected Thursday/Friday.

Another storm system will likely impact the area sometime next weekend, and the system could be relatively strong, but details will have to wait until we are closer to the event.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight (00Z-12Z) . VFR/SKC. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence.

Sunday (12Z-00Z) . VFR/SKC. SW winds less than 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday night . Generally VFR although CIGs will likely start to gradually lower Sunday night as a storm system approaches. Winds mostly light and variable on Sunday but becoming mainly light south or southwest. Overnight, a 5 to 10 kt southeast wind should develop. High confidence.

Monday-Monday night . Sub-VFR conditions expected much of the day Monday in rain, which may be heavy at times. Conditions may turn drier overnight but lingering restrictions are possible. Southeast winds during the day could gust 25 to 35 kt, with a period of higher gusts possible especially near the coast. LLWS will also be possible, particularly at sites where wind gusts are weaker. Winds should diminish overnight. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Mainly MVFR or VFR, some rain showers possible particularly over western terminals. Winds becoming south or southwest at 5 to 15 kt. Higher gusts possible from 18Z to 03Z. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday-Thursday . VFR, with W-SW winds 10-15kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions tonight through Sunday. W-NW winds 10-20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt after midnight. Winds shift to the SW around 10 kt on Sunday. Seas 3-4 feet.

Outlook .

Monday . S-SE winds increase considerably Monday morning to gale force with gusts 35-45kts possible on the ocean waters. Cannot rule out a brief period of storm force gusts up to 50 kts during the late afternoon or evening. Seas will also increase into the 9-12ft range. Rain is expected with thunderstorms also possible Monday afternoon.

Monday night-Wednesday . SCA conditions expected for more or less the entirety of this period. Winds will at least briefly relax Monday night before likely returning to at least SCA criteria (maybe even flirting with Gales again) on Tuesday afternoon). Gusts then decrease below 25 kts on Wednesday. Seas will be 8-10ft most of Monday night and Tuesday before decreasing to 4-6 ft on Wednesday.

Thursday . Conditions generally below SCA expected but gusts 20-25kts and seas around 4 ft will still be possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. With the strong storm system affecting the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic on Monday and the full moon early Monday morning, the threat for coastal flooding will be elevated on the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, and the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

For the Delaware Bay, Tidal Delaware River, and Chesapeake Bay: there is a risk of spotty to widespread minor tidal flooding. In addition to the stronger winds on Monday coinciding with the day time high tide (late morning for the Delaware Bay, Early afternoon for the Delaware River, and late afternoon/early evening for the Chesapeake Bay), the southerly component of the winds tends to limit water evacuating from these water ways. Therefore, continued the trend from the previous shifts of going well above guidance for these sites. It is still a little early and uncertain to determine if a coastal flood advisory will be needed, but the chance is increasing that one will be needed.

For the Atlantic coast: The good news is that the highest of the astronomical tides should come early enough Monday morning to not be significantly affected by the onshore flow. In fact, the strongest winds at this point look to coincide with the low tide that day. However, even so, think that operational models like the ETSS may be underestimating tide levels through the length of this event, so I continued the trend (from the previous two shifts), of going closer to the 95th percentile of the Stevens Institute's NYHOPS ensemble model. Even with this, it appears most sites should stay below advisory thresholds. The exception being those that are on back bays (like Barnegat light) and those sites at the mouth of the Delaware Bay (like Cape May and Lewes). Having said all that, the tide level forecast only takes into account the salt water component. If we get heavy rain with an incoming tide, the freshwater could exacerbate the tide levels.

Back bays near the coast (especially the northern Barnegat Bay and Little Assawoman Bay): Although we don't have any forecast points at these locations, this pattern is often responsible for prolonged minor tidal flooding at these back bays thanks to a combination of winds limiting water from evacuating back bays and increased freshwater flow from inland creaks emptying in to the bays.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Fitzsimmons/MPS Short Term . Carr Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/MPS Marine . Carr/MPS Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 26 mi54 min NNW 7 G 11 46°F 1020.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 27 mi32 min NW 16 G 19 55°F1019.3 hPa
44091 27 mi46 min 57°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 6 44°F 47°F1020.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 38 mi54 min 46°F 53°F1019.4 hPa
MHRN6 38 mi54 min W 6 G 8
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi54 min NNW 13 G 17 46°F 1019.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi54 min 45°F 53°F1019.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi66 min NNE 1 G 1.9 42°F 1019.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi72 min SW 2.9 39°F 1020 hPa37°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi32 min NNW 16 G 18 56°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi46 minWNW 510.00 miFair40°F33°F77%1020.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi1.7 hrsWNW 410.00 miFair32°F30°F96%1019.2 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ17 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair30°F28°F92%1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE4CalmCalmW5W3CalmCalmSW3CalmW3W8W12W8
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1 day agoSW4W3SW4CalmW4W5W5W4W3NW4W6W6W7W10W7SW6SW5W4W3SW4W5NW6W5W4
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Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
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Riviera Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:37 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:25 AM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:20 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:46 PM EST     3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.61.52.53.23.73.63.22.51.81.10.50.10.20.91.72.53.13.22.92.31.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:23 AM EST     2.12 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:51 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:32 PM EST     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:33 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     1.77 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.1-1.7-0.70.41.52.121.50.7-0.1-1-1.8-2.4-2.4-1.7-0.60.51.41.81.50.90.1-0.7-1.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.