Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brielle, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday June 4, 2020 11:36 PM EDT (03:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1004 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of tstms late this evening and early morning. Showers likely, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Tstms likely in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1003 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Unsettled weather will continue through the next several days as multiple upper level disturbances move across the area, before a cold front moves across the mid atlantic region Saturday. High pressure will build across the northeast and mid atlantic regions late Sunday through at least Tuesday. Unsettled weather may return toward the end of the week next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brielle , NJ
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location: 40.1, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 050158 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 958 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Unsettled weather will continue through the next several days as multiple upper level disturbances move across the area, before a cold front moves across the Mid Atlantic region Saturday. High pressure will build across the northeast and Mid Atlantic regions Late Sunday through at least Tuesday. Unsettled weather may return toward the end of the week next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. 945 PM Update . As of mid evening, one area of storms congealing into a N-S oriented line and closing in on SE PA and Delmarva. Still upwards of 500-1000 j/kg of ML CAPE here so still at least some potential for storms to be strong to severe but we don't expect this to match the high end severe weather we saw Wednesday. Additional showers/storms were located farther north as of the mid evening across parts of the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos. Instability is lower here so don't see much of a severe threat but given that these are tending to train, this will have to be monitored for hydro issues over the next several hours. Biggest threat would be small stream flooding and flooding of lower lying flood prone areas. Showers/storms look to wind down overnight.

Previous Discussion: Fairly tricky forecast tonight, with the convective evolution the obvious challenge. Storms are developing rapidly this afternoon in central Pennsylvania south- southwestward through southwest Virginia and adjacent West Virginia. Several low- amplitude perturbations are moving east- northeast across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. With strong differential diabatic heating and orographic effects, sub- synoptic lift has proven sufficient for convective initiation a little bit earlier than most high-resolution guidance has been depicting today. Meanwhile, a convectively-enhanced perturbation moving through the upper Ohio Valley has generated vigorous and well-organized convection in Ohio.

Unfortunately, high-resolution convection-allowing guidance has been quite variable with the evolution of these two initially separate regions of convection during the past day or so. However, there has been some approach to convergence with the 12z/subsequent simulations. In general, (1) the MCS in Ohio is expected to track into central Pennsylvania and weaken in the higher terrain with the loss of daytime heating, (2) another MCS may develop from the convection in western Virginia and attempt to reach Delmarva after sunset (though models are trending away from this, in general), and (3) fairly disorganized/pulse-like convection in central Pennsylvania and adjacent portions of Maryland/Virginia is progged to congeal into a band or bands of convection in eastern Pennsylvania and northern/central New Jersey (perhaps aided by outflow from the upstream MCS). An examination of upper-air analyses and satellite data would suggest that the stronger large-scale lift will remain north of the Maryland border. With this in mind, have trended PoPs higher to the north for late evening through the overnight hours, with the highest PoPs between 00z and 06z. However, concerned that convection will move in faster via recent radar trends, so we may make some fairly quick adjustments as needed.

The severe-weather parameter space is sufficient for severe storms (MUCAPE > 1000 J/kg; deep-layer vertical shear of 30-40 kt), though low-level stability will increase via gradual nocturnal cooling. The threat for heavy rainfall remains too, although think storm motions are sufficiently high to preclude a larger threat of flash flooding. In other words, I think the threat of severe storms is higher than the threat of flash flooding.

Once the convection wanes (hopefully) after midnight, potential for some localized fog may occur (similar to last night). However, left this out of the forecast for now, as convection-allowing models have hinted at potential for lingering showers/isolated storms (especially recent HRRR simulations). Given the large uncertainty with the precipitation forecast, did not want to provide too much specificity to the grids afterward (at this point).

Lows tonight will be quite warm, with most readings in the 60s to around 70.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Concern is increasing tomorrow for another round of severe storms, and heavy rainfall is also quite possible.

A stronger perturbation is expected to move into the Northeast by Friday afternoon, with a surface trough attendant to this perturbation moving into western portions of the CWA by afternoon. Large-scale lift in advance of the trough combined with mesoscale lift via the aforementioned trough, differential heating, and orographic effects should readily generate convection by early afternoon. The problem is that the orientation of the trough will be increasingly parallel to the midlevel flow. The question will be how parallel, as this will have implications on the progression of the convection (e.g., the 12z GFS implies less parallel orientation and quicker progression of the convection as a result; the 12z NAM is slower and suggests very heavy rainfall possible in advance of the slowly moving trough). Current thinking is that the slower advancement of the trough is likely, especially on the northeast side of the trough (where there is increased consensus for a more west-to-east orientation of the boundary). Should this slower progression materialize, some areas of the CWA will likely receive high rainfall totals (2+ inches probable; 3+ inches possible). For now, confidence is too low for a flash flood watch (particularly given uncertainty with antecedent convection), but not ruling out the possibility with future forecast updates.

Meanwhile, the severe-weather parameter space also remains favorable for severe storms, with SBCAPE 1500-2000+ J/kg and deep-layer shear of 25-35 kt possible by afternoon. Threat for wet microbursts exists, with a more organized wind threat possible should a stronger cold pool develop. Timing appears to be generally after midday and mostly northwest of the urban corridor until the early evening, with a slow progression east/southeast during the evening/overnight hours. Threat for severe weather will likely peak in the late afternoon/early evening, with the heavy rainfall threat possibly existing longer in time thereafter.

Temperatures on Friday and Friday night will remain quite warm, with mid 80s to low 90s for highs and upper 60s to low 70s for lows.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. After several days of active weather, including the beginning of the long term period, quiet conditions return for much of the rest of the extended period through the middle of next week, before more potential unsettle weather returns by the end of the week.

The beginning of the long term starts off with one final round of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will finally move across the area. CAPE values build to 1000-2000 J/kg, while shear is forecast to be 35-40 knots due to 700-500 mph winds of 30-40 knots. There will be some enhanced lift due to the front, although not much significant short wave/vorticity impulses are expected. However, with PWs increasing to 1.5-1.75 inches, any showers or thunderstorms that do develop could contain a brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall.

Behind the cold front, quiet conditions return to the area beginning Sunday and continuing through the first half of next week as high pressure builds across the northeast states and Mid Atlantic region. For Sunday, the main concern will be the potential for winds to gust around 15-20 mph, but winds for Monday and Tuesday will be much weaker. Temperatures Sunday and Monday return close to normal, before returning above normal on Tuesday.

The high begins to get squeezed by Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west, and an area of low pressure approaches the east coast from the western Atlantic. As we go into Thursday, the GFS and ECMWF begin to differ with their outcomes. The GFS hangs the front to our west and keeps the low offshore, while the ECMWF brings the front across the eastern seaboard, before bringing the weak low across the area. The ECMWF has a better chance of showers than the GFS, so we will keep a chance of showers from late Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Showers/storms look to affect most of the I-95 corridor sites and points north through late this evening bringing temporary restrictions to IFR. After storms progress east and/or dissipate overnight, local fog and/or lingering low cloudiness may develop with additional periods of MVFR or even IFR possible. Light south to southwest winds becoming light and variable (outside of convection). Low confidence, particularly after 06z.

Friday . Any lingering (local) fog and/or low clouds in the morning becoming VFR quickly. However, storms are expected to develop northwest of the urban corridor during the afternoon (including RDG/ABE; generally after 18z), possibly affecting the Philly terminals by 00z. Restrictions likely in proximity to storms. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Strong/erratic gusts and torrential downpours likely with the stronger storms. Moderate confidence.

Friday night . Storms with local restrictions likely, especially in the evening. Residual restrictions late in the overnight possible. Southwest winds up to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . Mostly VFR conditions expected. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. West winds become northwest during the afternoon with gusts 15-20 knots.

Saturday night-Tuesday . VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE. South to southwest winds 10 to 20 kt are expected tonight through Friday night, with seas generally below 5 feet. Cannot rule out a marginal advisory gust or a period of seas around 5 feet, but conditions are expected to remain predominantly sub-advisory.

A chance of storms exists tonight and again tomorrow evening/night. Strong/erratic gusts, locally higher waves, and torrential downpours are expected with the strongest storms.

OUTLOOK .

Saturday . Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels. However, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon which may contain gusty winds.

Saturday night-Tuesday . Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels through the period, but winds may gust around 20 knots at times Saturday night through Sunday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The astronomical tides associated with this full moon are particularly high, especially the high tide this evening and tonight. Only a modest positive tidal departure will result in minor flooding this evening.

Tidal departure this evening will range from +0.5 to +1.0, and this will be enough to produce minor coastal flooding along the New Jersey and Delaware oceanfront, many of the Atlantic bays, as well as Delaware Bay, and up the Delaware River.

South to southeast flow will result in a buildup of water that will continue into tonight. As a result, went ahead and expanded the Coastal Flood Advisory to include all coastal areas tonight.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071- 106. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ012>014-020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for NJZ015- 017>019. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NJZ016. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . CMS/Fitzsimmons Short Term . CMS Long Term . Robertson Aviation . CMS/Fitzsimmons/Robertson Marine . CMS/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 26 mi49 min S 11 G 12 74°F 69°F1012.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 27 mi27 min S 9.7 G 12 64°F 62°F1012.1 hPa62°F
44091 27 mi67 min 61°F4 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi55 min S 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 73°F1012.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 38 mi49 min 78°F 65°F1012.1 hPa
MHRN6 38 mi49 min SSW 6 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi49 min S 14 G 15 75°F 1011.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi49 min 76°F 62°F1012.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi61 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 72°F1011.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi67 min S 5.1 70°F 1013 hPa67°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi27 min S 9.7 G 12 62°F 1012.8 hPa60°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi41 minSSE 410.00 miFair72°F69°F91%1012.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi97 minSE 510.00 miFair0°F0°F%1012.2 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ17 mi41 minSSE 410.00 miFair71°F64°F81%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
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Riviera Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:59 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0-0.30.11.12.23.23.73.73.12.31.40.70-0.3012.33.64.44.74.33.52.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EDT     -3.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     2.76 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:52 PM EDT     3.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.9-3.5-3.1-1.9-0.21.52.62.720.9-0.2-1.3-2.3-2.9-2.9-1.9-0.21.633.42.81.70.4-0.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.