Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brielle, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:30PM Monday June 21, 2021 3:29 AM EDT (07:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:05PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 103 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms until early morning. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 103 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A frontal boundary will continue to lift to our north tonight into Monday. Tropical depression claudette is forecast to restrengthen into a tropical storm as it moves offshore of north carolina and virginia on Monday, then move to the northeast through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the east coast on Monday, and move offshore on Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds across the mid atlantic and northeast states Wednesday, then offshore on Thursday. This high will weaken as the front to the south or a weak low pressure system may return northward Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brielle , NJ
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location: 40.1, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 210557 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 157 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary will continue to lift to our north tonight into Monday. Tropical Depression Claudette is forecast to restrengthen into a Tropical Storm as it moves offshore of North Carolina and Virginia on Monday, then move to the northeast through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the east coast on Monday, and move offshore on Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states Wednesday, then offshore on Thursday. This high will weaken as the front to the south or a weak low pressure system may return northward Thursday night into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. The evening showers and thunderstorms have ended, and a dry remainder of the overnight period is expected. With the continued low level southerly return flow, expect the low levels to be near saturation. However, with surface winds potentially staying above 5 kt, and the model sounding profiles of RH, it seems to be more of a low cloud set up than fog. Warm and humid overnight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday, another hot and humid day with afternoon showers and tstms developing. Much of the area is in a marginal risk for severe weather with improving upper dynamics and decent CAPE values expected. The rains will favor the NW areas with high chc or low likely pops and further SE pops will be only slight chc. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s again with apparent temps mostly in the mid 90s. No heat flags will be issued with the marginal readings. Winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The cold front approaching from the west will move into our area Monday night, before shifting offshore early Tuesday, then out to sea Tuesday night. Several short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area through this period, the first being Monday evening into Monday night. Monday evening will have the best combination of short wave/vorticity support, left over instability from the day, and moisture which will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hi-Res guidance is indicating CAPE values on the order of 2000 J/kg, however, shear is only forecast to be around 20- 30 knots, which could be enough to continue some storm organization. Mid level flow is rather weak, however, DCAPES may increase to around 1000 J/kg to lead to some damaging winds potential. While mid- level lapse rates are fairly weak, there could be enough CAPE above the freezing level for some hail to develop. SPC continues to have a portion of the outlined in a Marginal Risk so severe weather Monday night.

By daybreak Tuesday morning, the front will be close to the coast, before continuing to shift offshore through the day. While the front may be offshore during by the morning hours, additional short wave/vorticity impulses are forecast to move across the area through the day, which will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. There could be just enough CAPE and shear combination for a few strong storms to develop Thursday morning, before the showers and thunderstorms begin to taper off and move offshore later in the day.

By Tuesday night, the front will be offshore and a drier northwest flow will be in place across the region. Therefore, Tuesday night will have a dry forecast.

Another concerns to watch for Monday night into Tuesday will be the potential for area of heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding. PW values increase to 1.75-2.00 inches, so any showers/thunderstorms that do develop could produce efficiently heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Quiet weather begins the long term period for the middle of the week, before the potential for unsettle weather returns for the end of the week into next weekend.

On Wednesday, high pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states, before it shifts offshore on Thursday. Dry weather is anticipated with PW values lowering to near 0.50 inches. Several short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area, but with limited moisture will likely only increase some high level clouds. After a cooler than normal day on Wednesday with high pressure across the area, temperatures will rise on Thursday as return flow develops on the backside of the high as it builds offshore of the northeast.

Overnight Thursday, an area of low pressure may form along the former frontal boundary that moved south of the area late Tuesday and stalled out. This low and possible warm front or surface trough is forecast to lift northward and impact the Mid Atlantic region late Thursday night through Friday night. Rain chances are not significantly high at this time with this system as there is not very strong short wave/vorticity impulses forecast through Friday night. Although, PW values do increase to around 1.5 inches, so there could be some locally heavy rain if it does develop.

As we move into the weekend, a warm front may lift across the Mid Atlantic region Saturday as an area of low pressure moves near the Great Lakes region, followed by an approaching cold front around Sunday. Unsettled weather could return to the area depending on the track of this low and frontal boundaries.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight. There is increasing potential for low ceilings to develop across the region after 06Z. It does appear that the setup will favor low stratus (vs. fog). That being said this isn't the typical low cloud advection set up for our region, so my confidence is low in the evolution of this pattern. For now, have included MVFR ceilings through the most likely time period. However, some guidance is showing widespread IFR ceilings for longer. Winds will be mostly SW or S at 5 to 10 knots overnight. Low confidence.

Monday. Once any low clouds dissipate, VFR conditions should prevail for the remainder of the day time hours. Some showers and storms may nudge into southeastern PA very late in the day, but it seems more likely to hold off until after 21Z Monday. Winds will increase from the SW at 5 to 10 knots during the morning and may reach 10 to 15 knots for the afternoon. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on when low clouds will dissipate in the morning.

Outlook .

Monday night . Generally VFR conditions expected. However, showers and thunderstorms may occasionally lead to lower conditions. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, shifting to west to northwest overnight. Low confidence.

Tuesday . Periods of MVFR conditions possible, especially with showers and thunderstorms. West to northwest winds 5-10 knots with gusts 15-20 knots. Low confidence.

Tuesday night . Generally VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening may occasionally lead to lower conditions. Northwest winds 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds 5-10 knots during the day, becoming light and variable overnight.

Thursday . VFR conditions expected. Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night . VFR conditions for much of the night, possibly lowering overnight due to low clouds and fog. Southeast winds around 5 knots early, becoming light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Friday . Lower conditions early, lifting to VFR during the day. South to southeast winds 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Guidance is indicating a freshening S to SW wind across the waters this evening and seas increasing to 4 to 5 ft overnight. We will issue a low-end SCA flag for the overnight period to cover it. A few sct showers possible this evening but mostly fair overnight. On Monday, sub-SCA conditions expected with mostly fair weather again. More sct showers/tstms will be around for the later afternoon. Higher winds and waves in any tstm.

Monday night-Tuesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions possible with seas hear 5-6 feet. Winds likely remain below 25 knots.

Tuesday night-Friday . Conditions likely remain below advisory levels for the remainder of the week, although winds could gust around 20 knots at times and seas will linger between 3-4 feet.

Rip Currents .

Increased southerly winds and waves of 4 to 5 feet, coupled with an underlying long period swell (related to Claudette) will result in a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents on Monday. Although the long period swell is not expected to become the dominant swell, and winds should shift to an off shore northwesterly direction, the moderate risk may continue into Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ453>455.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . Johnson/O'Hara/Staarmann Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . Robertson Aviation . Johnson/O'Hara/Robertson/Staarmann Marine . Johnson/O'Hara/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 26 mi60 min SSW 9.9 G 11 75°F 1008.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 27 mi50 min S 12 G 14 67°F1007.4 hPa
44091 28 mi64 min 69°F4 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi60 min S 5.1 G 6 75°F 76°F1007.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 38 mi60 min 77°F 71°F1007 hPa
MHRN6 38 mi60 min S 7 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi60 min SSE 9.9 G 11 74°F 1007.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi60 min 76°F 68°F1007.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi54 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 76°F 75°F1007 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi60 min E 4.1 72°F 1009 hPa70°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi50 min SSE 14 G 18 67°F1008 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi34 minS 610.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1008.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi30 minSSW 610.00 miFair0°F0°F%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW5CalmCalmSW6SW9SW7SW6W10W66W8SW5S7SW7S5S4S5S5S5S5S4S6S6
1 day ago----SW5SW4SW6SW7W9W11W9W11W5W10W6W6S5SW6NW9NW13NW6SW3SW5SW5SW6SW5
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Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
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Riviera Beach
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Mon -- 12:01 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:08 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:53 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.51.42.33.13.43.32.82.11.40.70.2-00.21.12.33.44.14.343.32.51.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:36 AM EDT     2.42 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:35 AM EDT     -2.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:08 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:59 PM EDT     3.18 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.7-1.6-0.11.32.22.41.70.7-0.4-1.3-2-2.6-2.6-1.8-0.21.42.73.22.71.60.4-0.9-1.9-2.7

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