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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Alexander, PA

February 17, 2025 4:44 PM EST (21:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:11 AM   Sunset 6:02 PM
Moonrise 11:16 PM   Moonset 9:18 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Alexander, PA
   
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Area Discussion for Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 171940 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 240 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

SYNOPSIS
Snow and blowing snow continues for some this morning, with some gusts up to 25 to 35mph lingering today. Wind chills between 5 and 20 below are expected tonight. Below average temperatures continue this week with additional snow potential Wednesday into Thursday. A "warmup" is favored by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Wind gusts of up to 20mph to 30mph expected the rest of today.
- Wind chills of -5 to -20 overnight; a cold weather advisory is in effect for portions of the area.
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The snow showers across the area have tapered off as the wind direct has shifted to a more southwesterly flow. Have nixed the left over pops and winter weather advisories/blizzard warnings.
Kept some pops over the ridges through the evening account for a stray snow shower.

Into tonight, winds are expected to relax with the strongest winds above the mixed layer, but 15mph to 25mph still seems reasonable. Combined with the cold temperatures, this will generate wind chill hazards. A cold weather advisory has been hoisted accordingly in areas with a >50% chance of -10F "feels- like" values or below. Mercer and Venango were left out due to their lower (-15F) criteria and since the coldest air is more to the east. Lows are forecast in the single digits for most.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and cold Tuesday through Wednesday.
- The low pressure system Wednesday has shifted further south.
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Tuesday appears to be likely the coldest day of the week, with a roughly >50% chance of a max temperature below 20F north of I-70. For reference, this is nearly 20F below normal for this time of year. Zonal flow under a strong upper jet should keep precipitation chances >10%.

Tuesday night, lows return to the low 10s and single digits, but wind is much less likely surface high pressure overhead. This would keep wind chill concerns a bit lower than the night prior, but there is still roughly a 20% chance of hitting cold weather advisory criteria for parts of the I-80 corridor and the high terrain.

The low pressure system set to impact the region on Wednesday has shifted a bit further south than the previous run of the ensembles. NBM probs now for even an inch in the very southern areas are less than 20%. Will keep the potential for snow in the southern counties but should be less impactful.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Potential Lake Effect/Enhanced snow Wednesday night and Thursday.
- Higher chances of dry weather and "warming" temperatures into the weekend.
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With the parent low track to the south, there remains an uncertainty of whether the low pivots and tracks up the coast.
If this does occur, there stands to be potentially advisory level snows for Wednesday night through Thursday on the back end of the low with additional support from the lake. It may very well stand that the low track takes the low straight off the coast and out to sea. This leaves the potential solely on the lake effect snow. Have opted with the lake snow at this time but this only gives a 15% to 30% chance of an inch in the ridges. Have not included this potential in the HWO but will definitely need monitoring.

The main impacts this week appear to likely be the continued cold, with temperatures remaining in the ballpark of 15F to 20F below normal from late Monday into early Thursday. The is high confidence in ridging into the weekend, but the main uncertainty is how strong embedded troughing may be, which will correlate to just how "warm" things get. We don't have a >50% chance of breaking normal until Monday where the highs cross into the 40s ahead of another shortwave trough.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Steepened low level lapse rates to near dry adiabatic with cold advection at the 850 mb level has resulted in streets of cu development this afternoon. Cloud bases are hovering right around the 3kft mark and some drier air intrusion from the southwest has scattered the CIGs out some. This trend is likely to be the case through the majority of the TAF period as remnant moisture traps below a sinking subsidence inversion on the periphery of high pressure. As such, conditions are likely to bounce around MVFR/VFR at all sites through most of tonight save ZZV where less cu development lends higher confidence prevailing VFR.

Wind gusts up to 35 knots are expected to continue through the daytime hours today with a strong pressure gradient and mixing heights tapping into the core of a 35-45 knot low level jet. As subsidence lowers the mixing heights and the jet gradually weakens through tonight, gusts will lessen.

MVFR probs wane overnight tonight after ~09z with another push of drier low-level air and VFR probs jump to 70-80% through daybreak Tuesday. Some uncertainty then arises with how much residual boundary layer moisture is left and the height at which diurnally-driven cloud bases sit. HRRR probs jump back up to 40-60% for MVFR CIGs after 16z and the cu rule suggests BKN development with hi res sounding CCLs hovering between 2.5-3kft, so have opted to carry high-end MVFR CIGs for the daytime hours.
Gusts will be much less in the 10-15 mph range.

Outlook...
By Wednesday, region-wide restrictions are expected to return as another storm impacts the region. The best chance for snow will fall south of the Mason-Dixon line and recent trends continue to shift farther and farther south. Drier weather is then favored to return to close out the week.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ009-014>016-022-074-076>078.
OH...None.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ512-514.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KHLG WHEELING OHIO CO,WV 11 sm51 minW 16G3010 smClear23°F3°F42%30.14

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