Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Alexander, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Outside of scattered showers on Monday morning around northwest PA, dry weather with rising temperature is expected through mid week.

2) Potential for the first accumulating snow of the season late this week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure is expected to begin to nose into the Upper OH Valley during the day today. With an exiting low pressure center, expect a stronger gradient to persist. Winds are expected to gust out of the west and southwest. Probs for gusting over 40 mph remains in the higher terrain at around 90% over Eastern Tucker and around 30% for the Laurel's. The lower terrain is a good 60% to 70% for gusts over 30 mph.

By the late Sunday to Monday morning timeframe, a disturbance will cross the northern counties. Expect some precip here although amounts will be less.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next weather feature will be a low pressure system arriving across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, the probs are leaning more to a higher percentage between 20% and 40% for 0.50 and higher for 0.25". The frontal passage will occur Thursday night with the potential for the first accumulating snow of the season. With northwest flow and the assist for the lake some probs show around 50% prob of an inch in the eastern Tucker and around 20% for the Laurel ridges.

Thus, expect an active pattern Thursday through at least Saturday that may include multiple periods of precipitation while likely pushing area temperature below normal. The latter point also means that scenarios do exist for the first accumulating snow of the season, though mainly for northwest PA and the higher terrain.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Lingering low-level stratus is fleeing eastwards as high pressure and dry advection slide in from the west. Northern and eastern ports may have a few more hours of MVFR after which, widespread VFR is expected through the day Sunday. Mid-level clouds filter in from the north ahead of a weak wave expected overnight into Monday. WSWerly winds gust up to 25 knots today.

A passing cold front tonight into Monday brings a chance for MVFR and rain north (most likely for DUJ/FKL/BVI).

Outlook...
High pressure settles back in later on Monday and is expected to return VFR to area ports until our next chance for rain climbs through the Ohio Valley on Thursday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.