Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Alexander, PA
 | Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 4:34 AM Moonset 5:12 PM |
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Alexander, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 151648 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1248 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Confidence is increasing in thunderstorms this afternoon to be confined north of Pittsburgh. The severe threat for Saturday has spread a bit farther eastward into our area but timing of the responsible front remains uncertain.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms today north of Pittsburgh with much lesser chance farther south. Damaging wind is the main threat although large hail and a tornado are possible. Training thunderstorms may pose a localized flooding threat.
2) Thursday features a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms with isolated damaging wind possible. After a break Friday, a stronger front could bring more severe weather Saturday.
3) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially today.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
In the wake of early morning convection, scattered cloud coverage remains with increasing southwest surface flow. Said convection has left an outflow boundary slowly sagging south past the Pittsburgh metro as of mid-morning. As southwest flow strengthens into this afternoon, expect that that boundary likely gets pushed back to the north while the ambient environment recovers markedly during the daylight hours. Dew points are not much higher to the south, so don't expect strong moisture advection today with dew points likely not moving much from their upper 50s/low 60s this morning. The axis of highest deep layer moisture content, featuring precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches, will lie north of I-70. This is where the bulk of the storm activity and severe potential is forecast to occur this afternoon and evening.
Along with some measure of surface heating into the low 80s, this should allow surface-based CAPE to easily reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range according to HRRR means. High-end potential, contingent on more clearing, exists to reach north of 2000 J/kg north of Pittsburgh, and trends may be pointing in this direction with HRRR cloud coverage in the 50-70% range and actual observations trending much less. Deep shear will be improved as compared to yesterday, reaching the 35-40 knot range for 0-6 km values. The highest confidence storm initiation likely occurs to our west after 3pm along and ahead of a cluster pushing through the lower Great Lakes region, perhaps aided by a weak mid-level wave, with activity spreading east. There could also be initiation along the aforementioned outflow boundary and other remnant boundaries from convection yesterday. As convective temperature of 75F is met this afternoon, that raises a conditional low confidence/higher severity earlier initiation along the remnant boundaries that could pose an all hazards risk with brief discrete mode before quickly growing upscale; better potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two accompanies this north of Pittsburgh where low-level SRH is maximized, LCLs are a bit lower, and CAPE in the hail growth zone is more abundant. What may inhibit this is a persistent warm layer on latest PIT ACARS soundings from 700-800 mb that would need stronger forcing and repeated updraft attempts to erode. The later storm mode favors quickly congealing segments/bows as noted by several recent HRRR/RRFS runs bringing a damaging wind threat. The unchanged SPC day 1 outlook remains in good agreement with the above, leaving a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) in place north of I-70 and a Marginal Risk (1/5) down to about I-70.
With deep layer mean flow nearly due westerly and initiation along boundaries oriented roughly west-east, training of storms is possible that could lead to flash flooding. This, again, is most likely north of Pittsburgh in the high PWAT axis. HRRR max 1 hour QPF reaches north of 1" for a few consecutive hours later tonight suggesting the threat for training storms dumping inch per hour rates.
While the severe threat should largely subside by midnight due to diurnal stabilization, upstream convection could once again impact the region overnight into Thursday morning, at least in a weakening state. Such convection is tricky to time and depends at least partially on leftover boundaries from earlier activity.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Thunderstorm potential continues on Thursday, as Great Lakes low pressure drags a weak frontal boundary across the region. Coverage may be more widespread with some better mid-level forcing just downstream of a shortwave riding through the Great Lakes, but the environment it has to work with looks less potent. Although deep shear will be similar to Wednesday, more widespread cloud cover may hinder the buildup of instability. Poor low-level curvature to hodographs with uniform column southwest flow and poor mid-level lapse rates point to lower tornado and hail potential leaving isolated damaging wind as the most likely impact from the stronger storms. The SPC day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area was expanded to cover most of the forecast area north and west of Morgantown.
A southern stream shortwave dipping into the Tennessee Valley will finally dislodge the southeast CONUS ridge Thursday night as the afternoon and evening showers and storms work their way out after sunset. We should get a break from the daily convective cycle as brief shortwave ridging traverses overhead. It'll be short lived though before one last round of strong to severe storms will arrive with a stronger cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. While details remain fuzzy, this feature should provide the strongest lift we've seen in the past week, so favorable timing would point toward a heightened severe threat. Timing of the front is still uncertain and dependent on tilt and progression of the mid-level wave with AI models suggesting late afternoon and some ensemble clusters as late as after sunset.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
An anomalously strong (500mb heights at the 99th percentile) and stubborn ridge remains centered over Florida and extending across the southeast CONUS into Thursday before being weakened some by upstream shortwave activity. It still appears that today will feature the best chances of record-breaking temperatures. Warm and moist southwest flow today will push 850mb temperatures into the 14 to 16C range, which, assuming good mixing and lesser cloud coverage, would top out MaxTs in the low 80s. Such temperatures are most likely south of Pittsburgh away from the ridges while areas to the north feature more cloud cover and better precipitation chances.
This is reflected in NBM temperature record probabilities for today.
Sites PHD (shorter climate record), HLG, and MGW all have 85% or greater probability of reaching record highs today according to statistical guidance. Probabilities for ZZV and PIT are lower (~50%). There are also decent probabilities both today and Thursday for record warm minimum temperatures, with PIT, PHD, and HLG featuring 70% or greater chance of setting such standards both days.
Thursday remains warm, with 60% or greater probability of temperatures of 80 or higher south of I-80, but this may be a bit overdone with higher probability for more areawide cloud cover and showers and storms which may hinder the potential of record highs (probabilities drop below 30% areawide). The next best shot for these may be Saturday, with perhaps some sun and southwest flow ahead of an approaching front, but timing of the front will dictate how high temperatures get. The warmth definitively ends by Sunday behind this boundary.
Minor heat risk continues areawide today and Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will be notable to all with this being the first warm up of the year. Speckled moderate risk areas are indicated today and Thursday especially, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR and mainly dry weather through most of the afternoon with gusts into the high teens to low twenties on average with mixing up to around 5kft. Latest ensemble guidance suggests the vast majority of the afternoon remains dry with convection capped off by warm air aloft. There is uncertainty in the late afternoon / evening timeframe regarding convection, as much depends on upstream conditions. Based off latest guidance and observed upper air soundings, a lean towards staying capped seems to be the right move through the afternoon. Thereafter, showers/storms are possible mostly north of KPIT into the evening as upstream convection moves into the region. VFR is likely outside of any onsite convection. Latest ensemble guidance gives probabilities of any cig/vis restrictions in the single digits over the TAF period.
Outlook...
The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions.
A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather.
Outlook...
The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions.
A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather.
CLIMATE
See below for record max highs and max lows this week:
Today, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1248 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Confidence is increasing in thunderstorms this afternoon to be confined north of Pittsburgh. The severe threat for Saturday has spread a bit farther eastward into our area but timing of the responsible front remains uncertain.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms today north of Pittsburgh with much lesser chance farther south. Damaging wind is the main threat although large hail and a tornado are possible. Training thunderstorms may pose a localized flooding threat.
2) Thursday features a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms with isolated damaging wind possible. After a break Friday, a stronger front could bring more severe weather Saturday.
3) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially today.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
In the wake of early morning convection, scattered cloud coverage remains with increasing southwest surface flow. Said convection has left an outflow boundary slowly sagging south past the Pittsburgh metro as of mid-morning. As southwest flow strengthens into this afternoon, expect that that boundary likely gets pushed back to the north while the ambient environment recovers markedly during the daylight hours. Dew points are not much higher to the south, so don't expect strong moisture advection today with dew points likely not moving much from their upper 50s/low 60s this morning. The axis of highest deep layer moisture content, featuring precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches, will lie north of I-70. This is where the bulk of the storm activity and severe potential is forecast to occur this afternoon and evening.
Along with some measure of surface heating into the low 80s, this should allow surface-based CAPE to easily reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range according to HRRR means. High-end potential, contingent on more clearing, exists to reach north of 2000 J/kg north of Pittsburgh, and trends may be pointing in this direction with HRRR cloud coverage in the 50-70% range and actual observations trending much less. Deep shear will be improved as compared to yesterday, reaching the 35-40 knot range for 0-6 km values. The highest confidence storm initiation likely occurs to our west after 3pm along and ahead of a cluster pushing through the lower Great Lakes region, perhaps aided by a weak mid-level wave, with activity spreading east. There could also be initiation along the aforementioned outflow boundary and other remnant boundaries from convection yesterday. As convective temperature of 75F is met this afternoon, that raises a conditional low confidence/higher severity earlier initiation along the remnant boundaries that could pose an all hazards risk with brief discrete mode before quickly growing upscale; better potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two accompanies this north of Pittsburgh where low-level SRH is maximized, LCLs are a bit lower, and CAPE in the hail growth zone is more abundant. What may inhibit this is a persistent warm layer on latest PIT ACARS soundings from 700-800 mb that would need stronger forcing and repeated updraft attempts to erode. The later storm mode favors quickly congealing segments/bows as noted by several recent HRRR/RRFS runs bringing a damaging wind threat. The unchanged SPC day 1 outlook remains in good agreement with the above, leaving a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) in place north of I-70 and a Marginal Risk (1/5) down to about I-70.
With deep layer mean flow nearly due westerly and initiation along boundaries oriented roughly west-east, training of storms is possible that could lead to flash flooding. This, again, is most likely north of Pittsburgh in the high PWAT axis. HRRR max 1 hour QPF reaches north of 1" for a few consecutive hours later tonight suggesting the threat for training storms dumping inch per hour rates.
While the severe threat should largely subside by midnight due to diurnal stabilization, upstream convection could once again impact the region overnight into Thursday morning, at least in a weakening state. Such convection is tricky to time and depends at least partially on leftover boundaries from earlier activity.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Thunderstorm potential continues on Thursday, as Great Lakes low pressure drags a weak frontal boundary across the region. Coverage may be more widespread with some better mid-level forcing just downstream of a shortwave riding through the Great Lakes, but the environment it has to work with looks less potent. Although deep shear will be similar to Wednesday, more widespread cloud cover may hinder the buildup of instability. Poor low-level curvature to hodographs with uniform column southwest flow and poor mid-level lapse rates point to lower tornado and hail potential leaving isolated damaging wind as the most likely impact from the stronger storms. The SPC day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area was expanded to cover most of the forecast area north and west of Morgantown.
A southern stream shortwave dipping into the Tennessee Valley will finally dislodge the southeast CONUS ridge Thursday night as the afternoon and evening showers and storms work their way out after sunset. We should get a break from the daily convective cycle as brief shortwave ridging traverses overhead. It'll be short lived though before one last round of strong to severe storms will arrive with a stronger cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. While details remain fuzzy, this feature should provide the strongest lift we've seen in the past week, so favorable timing would point toward a heightened severe threat. Timing of the front is still uncertain and dependent on tilt and progression of the mid-level wave with AI models suggesting late afternoon and some ensemble clusters as late as after sunset.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
An anomalously strong (500mb heights at the 99th percentile) and stubborn ridge remains centered over Florida and extending across the southeast CONUS into Thursday before being weakened some by upstream shortwave activity. It still appears that today will feature the best chances of record-breaking temperatures. Warm and moist southwest flow today will push 850mb temperatures into the 14 to 16C range, which, assuming good mixing and lesser cloud coverage, would top out MaxTs in the low 80s. Such temperatures are most likely south of Pittsburgh away from the ridges while areas to the north feature more cloud cover and better precipitation chances.
This is reflected in NBM temperature record probabilities for today.
Sites PHD (shorter climate record), HLG, and MGW all have 85% or greater probability of reaching record highs today according to statistical guidance. Probabilities for ZZV and PIT are lower (~50%). There are also decent probabilities both today and Thursday for record warm minimum temperatures, with PIT, PHD, and HLG featuring 70% or greater chance of setting such standards both days.
Thursday remains warm, with 60% or greater probability of temperatures of 80 or higher south of I-80, but this may be a bit overdone with higher probability for more areawide cloud cover and showers and storms which may hinder the potential of record highs (probabilities drop below 30% areawide). The next best shot for these may be Saturday, with perhaps some sun and southwest flow ahead of an approaching front, but timing of the front will dictate how high temperatures get. The warmth definitively ends by Sunday behind this boundary.
Minor heat risk continues areawide today and Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will be notable to all with this being the first warm up of the year. Speckled moderate risk areas are indicated today and Thursday especially, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR and mainly dry weather through most of the afternoon with gusts into the high teens to low twenties on average with mixing up to around 5kft. Latest ensemble guidance suggests the vast majority of the afternoon remains dry with convection capped off by warm air aloft. There is uncertainty in the late afternoon / evening timeframe regarding convection, as much depends on upstream conditions. Based off latest guidance and observed upper air soundings, a lean towards staying capped seems to be the right move through the afternoon. Thereafter, showers/storms are possible mostly north of KPIT into the evening as upstream convection moves into the region. VFR is likely outside of any onsite convection. Latest ensemble guidance gives probabilities of any cig/vis restrictions in the single digits over the TAF period.
Outlook...
The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions.
A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather.
Outlook...
The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions.
A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather.
CLIMATE
See below for record max highs and max lows this week:
Today, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHLG
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHLG
Wind History Graph: HLG
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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