Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Worthington, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to rotate slowly east across our area through the rest of this afternoon and into this evening in association with a weak upper level trough and surface wave that is moving through the upper Ohio Valley. These will primarily affect areas to the southeast of I-71. With PWs up around 2 inches across our southeast, locally heavy downpours will be possible. The best chance for this and any flooding concerns look to be across the lower Scioto Valley, near the center of the broader circulation as this is where the storms will have the slowest motion/best chance for training. Otherwise, the activity should decrease in coverage and intensity overnight as we lose the diurnal component and the short wave continues to move off to our east. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
A mid level trough will move slowly out of the Mid Mississippi Valley Monday and into the lower Ohio Valley Monday night. Some mid level energy ejecting northeast out of this will combine with some afternoon instability through the day on Monday to result in a developing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Highs on Monday will mostly be in the lower 80s.

Pcpn chances will continue into early Monday evening but will likely begin to decrease somewhat in coverage and intensity as we lose the daytime heating. However, additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will spread back in from the southwest later Monday night ahead of the mid level trough. Lows Monday night will be in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A mid level shortwave continues to move through the larger flow at the start of the extended period. Right now, it appears that this wave will be moving though the CWA on Tuesday, allowing for brief dry weather for east central IN/ west central OH/ west KY. However, there still may be enough forcing on the eastern side of this wave to spark showers and thunderstorms in central OH/KY on east Tuesday afternoon. Guidance shows a subtle enhancement in wind speeds on the eastern side of the shortwave- not quite a jet streak- but perhaps enough to allow a little more organization to storms. This appears to be focused closer to the OH/WV border, but may be something to watch should it shift farther west. High moisture content means that Tuesday remains muggy: Tds in the low 70s and Ts in the low 80s and locally heavy rainfall remains a threat with any showers/storms. Overnight lows only fall to the low 70s.

By Wednesday, yet another shortwave to our west will be organizing and moving into the Ohio Valley. This wave will be the driver for an additional influx of moisture and warmth into the region. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week, with feels-like temps creeping into the 90s in spots as we enter into the open-warm sector of the surface low. Showers and thunderstorms will fire off ahead of the cold front as it is dragged through, though timing on this remains a bit ambiguous. Both ECMWF and GFS ensembles have slowed things down a tad, however, placement of the low over the Great Lakes varies. Either way, looks like trends are indicating cold frontal passage either late Wednesday night or possibly into Thursday. Depending on timing and diurnal factors, this may inhibit severe potential for our area and keep severe west of us on Wednesday and east of us on Thursday. We'll see.

In the post- frontal regime sometime on Thursday, we should briefly dry out and maybe even see some sunshine. However, the airmass behind this "cold" front isn't exactly cold. Ts and Tds on Thursday and Friday are maybe only 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday. In fact, large scale ridging looks to be setting up as we head toward the weekend, bringing even hotter conditions to the region, though potentially drier.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mid level shortwave exiting the area and loss of daytime heating will result in decreasing chances for showers/thunderstorms with dry conditions by late evening. Lingering low level moisture will likely lead to MVFR to IFR cigs and possibly some MVFR vsbys developing again late tonight into early Monday morning. Cigs will lift back into MVFR and then VFR toward the end of the TAF period. Another mid level disturbance will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Timing and coverage somewhat uncertain - so have limited any mention to prob30 late in the period across the southwest, where the best chance looks to exist.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday with periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and visibilities.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.