Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alexandria, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Through sunrise, clear skies and light to calm winds will create favorable radiational cooling conditions, and thus the development of patchy to areas of frost across our eastern two- thirds CWFA. A Frost Advisory and an SPS will continue until 9 AM to account for the frost threat. In addition, some patchy valley fog can be expected.

For today, surface high pressure centered over the middle and upper Ohio Valley will move southeast. Meanwhile, a cold front will begin to move southeast into the western Great Lakes.
Abundant sunshine is expected, and with a developing southwest flow and WAA ahead of the cold front, it should warm up nicely from our chilly lows. Highs will range from the lower 70s east to the mid 70s west.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
For tonight, mid and high clouds will be on the increase from the northwest as the cold front sags southward into the southern Great Lakes. It will be milder as south to southwest winds stay up a little. Lows will range from mid 40s southeast to the mid 50s northwest.

On Saturday, some warm, moist advection will interact with the stalled out boundary near our northern CWFA. This may bring a chance of showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon. Otherwise, skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy. It will be warm south of the frontal boundary as southerly flow continues. Highs will range from the lower 70s across the far north and northeast, to the upper 70s and perhaps around 80 degrees elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Unsettled weather to kick off the long term period with a broad area of low pressure expected across the lower Midwest and Great Lakes. Warm air advection within a strengthening LLJ drives showers and elevated thunderstorms along and north of I-70 with the highest concentration currently forecast across northern Ohio. Through the overnight, the activity drifts southward, but coverage will become more scattered into daybreak Sunday morning. Additional development is possible Sunday afternoon as the front moves southward, but convergence along the front is not overly strong, limiting coverage across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Temperatures are warmest on Sunday, with lower 80s forecast south of I-70.

Sunday evening through Sunday night, a much stronger shortwave digs into the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, deepening the surface low pressure to the northeast. Wind gusts between 25 and 30 mph from the northwest drive cooler temperatures southward behind the front. This energy and co-located moisture keeps clouds and rain in the forecast through the day on Monday, especially north of the Ohio River. Daytime highs are quite chilly, about 10 degrees below normal for mid-October. High pressure builds into the Midwest Monday night with some patchy frost possible where winds are able to calm.

Another shortwave pivots through the base of the trough on Tuesday, providing another enhancement to the winds and reinforcing the below normal temperatures. High temperatures are a few degrees cooler in comparison to Monday with the whole area staying in the 50s. Slightly better chance for frost Wednesday morning, but the pressure gradient likely keeps in limited to the areas with lighter winds.

Temperatures rebound slightly on Wednesday, but they remain below normal as northwesterly flow persists around the high pressure passing to the south. Wednesday night, the high pressure pivots to the south, likely providing the most favorable conditions for frost development into Thursday morning. High pressure shifts to the Mid- Atlantic on Thursday, turning winds out of the southwest. This will kick off a warming trend that will continue into the end of the week.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through sunrise, the center of surface high pressure will remain near eastern Ohio. Clear skies are forecast. Winds will be calm in the east, and southeast around 5 knots in the west.
Some river fog at KLUK may result in predominate MVFR visibilities with a brief TEMPO period of IFR visibilities possible.

For today, the center of the surface high will move off to the southeast. Diurnal mixing and an uptick in the pressure gradient will result in south/southwest winds sustained between 5 and 10 knots beginning around 15Z.

For tonight, as the high continues to move southeast, a cold front will begin to sag southward into the southern Great Lakes.
Some mid and high level clouds will spill in from the northwest in association with this frontal boundary. Winds will generally remain from the south/southwest sustained between 5 and 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Showers and gusty winds possible Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ045-046- 054>056-063>065-073-074-080-082.
KY...None.
IN...None.