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LEZ144 Expires:202312050915;;916890 Fzus51 Kcle 050227 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 927 pm est Mon dec 4 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-050915- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 927 pm est Mon dec 4 2023
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 051516 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1016 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light precipitation is possible today across the Ohio Vally as weak low pressure moves across the Great Lakes. High pressure will then build into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend through the end of the work week. The weekend looks active as another low pressure system moves through the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Weak isentropic lift ahead of surface low pressure over Indiana will continue to provide the impetus for light precipitation today.
Initial focus area through the midday hours will be along and north of Interstate 70... though will likely see a period of showers south of this too, particularly late this afternoon, as a mid- level shortwave digs southeast into the region.

Type will mainly be rain as the day warms up a bit; though can't rule out snow mixing in during brief higher-intensity precipitation. Relatively warm roads will prevent any hazardous travel today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
As temperatures fall on the back end of the shortwave, lingering showers will transition back over to a mix(south) or to all snow (north). Deepest moisture (700-500mb) is abruptly cut off after 09Z Wednesday and expecting widespread precipitation end around this time. Winds on the back end of the system pick up out of the north, around 10 MPH as we head into the overnight.
This, combined with 2m temperatures falling to the mid 30s, results in wind chills in the 20s.

As we head into Wednesday morning, upper level riding and convergent flow move over the area coupled with surface high pressure. This should dry us out for the most part (cannot rule out the odd flurry thanks to moisture streaming off the Great Lakes in northwesterly flow). High temperatures on Wednesday will be chilly, only reaching the upper 30s in our north, low 40s in our south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
For the period Wednesday night into Thursday, a mid level ridge is forecast to build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the same time, a surface ridge axis will move east/southeast across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. It will be dry with mostly cloudy skies Wednesday night, which will give way to increasing sunshine on Thursday as clouds depart to the east. It will become breezy on the back side of the surface ridge, especially across our northwest zones. After lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, it will warm up in the developing WAA pattern, with highs climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For the period Thursday night into Friday, the mid level ridge is forecast to shift east. We will remain between the departing high off the southeast U.S. coast and a frontal system and developing low pressure across the Plains. With a continued decent pressure gradient, breezy conditions will persist. Lows in the mid 30s to the lower 40s will rebound into the 50s area wide.

We will continue to monitor the development of the next weather system to affect the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the upcoming weekend. Models have been advertising that a long wave trough carving out across the Plains will rotate east/northeast into our region this weekend. Low pressure over the southern Plains is forecast to track northeast across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes during this period. The strength and exact track of the low still is still uncertain at this juncture, but the most likely track will be to our west (favors climatology), which would keep our region on the warm side of the system until frontal passage sometime Saturday night or Sunday. Thus, increasing chances of pcpn in the form of showers will be in the forecast Friday night into Saturday night. Will have to watch forecast instability along/ahead of the cold front. Right now, it looks like a low chance for thunderstorms.
However, it is that time of the season where we can see cool season QLCSs with little to no thunder, but just enough overall instability to create a convective line that could pose a damaging wind threat as it taps into the stronger low level wind field. Timing of front and strength of the low will be the key. We will also need to watch as models converge on a more detailed solution for the potential for any possible wind headlines. Increasing confidence will also be the key. As the low moves northeast into the Great Lakes on Sunday, the cold front will pass east through our area. Widespread pcpn will show a decreasing trend in coverage behind the front. Mild temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s on Saturday will cool into the 40s to lower 50s on Sunday.

By Sunday night into Monday, much colder air will filter southeast into the our region as robust low pressure continues to lift off to the northeast. This will keep a chance of rain and/or snow showers over the area Sunday night. Decreasing coverage of pcpn is forecast on Monday. Lows in the mid 20s to the lower 30s Sunday night will only rise into the 30s to lower 40s on Monday.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Updated TAFs at 15Z to include latest observational trends with development of low stratus across much of the region. While it is possible that stratus could briefly open up in spots, latest thinking is lack of sun angle and significant warming today will result in only modest improvement to ceilings.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday afternoon.
MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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