Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria, OH

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 300225 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1025 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Very cool and dry conditions will be the rule through most of this week as an upper level trough digs into the northeast U.S. A low pressure system will bring gusty winds on Wednesday, and strong surface high pressure building in will bring the potential for frost Friday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Showers area weakening rapidly and will dissipate before midnight. Remaining cloud cover will persist a bit longer before diminishing. Forecast lows still look reasonable with the possibility of some readings starting to rise before daybreak as winds start to pick up.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Mid level flow shifts from the west to the southwest as the next major shortwave digs into the base of the eastern U.S. trough. 500mb flow nearing 100 knots leads to strong low level jet of 40-50 knots at 850mb through the forecast area by late morning. This coexists with mostly sunny skies and a warming boundary layer. Main concern during this time is winds gusts ranging from 30-40mph at the surface. Winds will continue to gust through the afternoon, though increasing mid-level clouds after 18Z will help to decrease mixing and gust potential a bit.

A brief period of light showers is possible as a fast-moving cold front slides southeast during the evening hours. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s to near 70 Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night, clouds will decrease behind the front, leaving cool, dry conditions and temperatures dropping into the mid 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A persistent, long-wave trough will keep temps below climatological norms through the period. A s/w H5 trough and its associated PVA will swing over the Ohio Valley on Thursday, providing a source of instability that could help initiate some spotty rain showers, mainly across the northern fa.

Friday and Friday night still appear to be the coldest day of the period as H5 height falls ensue with the deepening trough, keeping highs in the mid-50s to near 60. Kept PoPs out of the forecast due to drier air in the mid-levels ushering in, along with weak forcing being in place as surface high pressure builds in from the west. With overnight lows on Friday dropping into the upper-30s across parts of the northern and western fa, decided to keep the patchy frost potential. Only limiting factor will be some lingering mid- level clouds that could slightly reduce the amount of radiational cooling at the surface.

Saturday will feature similar conditions to Friday, with high temps only forecast to be a degree or two warmer. As the surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Ohio Valley, pcpn chances will be diminished as subsidence dominates. Could see a few more clouds mix into the forecast as some moisture return at H7 is displayed in global models.

Another H5 s/w trough will dig into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, likely bringing a wave of pcpn from west to east in our fa. PVA aloft will become more enhanced throughout the day, leading to higher PoPs during the afternoon and early evening hours. High pressure will then quickly build in Sunday night into Monday, drying out the fa again. High temps on Monday will still be below average, but a return of southerly flow will help put us in a warming trend as we begin to progress through next week. Temperatures on Tuesday will be much more seasonal in the upper-60s to near 70 as the H5 trough slightly dampens and weak WAA ensues.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Showers will embedded thunderstorms will impact KILN early in the period. Most likely this will diminish before reaching KCMH/KLCK. Clouds will become few to scattered in the wake of the line of showers and storms. Winds will back after 06Z and start to slowly strengthen. After 13Z, there will be a substantial increase in winds speeds, both sustained and gusts. A mid deck will overspread the region after 18Z and winds will veer late in the period as a cold front crosses the area. Cannot completely rule out some showers along the front, but at this time the chance is too low to include in the TAFs.

OUTLOOK . MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hogue NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . Hogue LONG TERM . JDR AVIATION .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	88 mi	57 min	S 1	49°F			1008 hPa	48°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	89 mi	42 min	SSW 6 G 8	53°F			1006.4 hPa (-1.4)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	99 mi	54 min	SSW 1.9 G 5.1	55°F	67°F		1006.7 hPa	43°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Newark, Newark Heath Airport, OH	12 mi	48 min	N 0	2.50 mi	Fog/Mist	50°F	46°F	89%	1009.1 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH	14 mi	51 min	WSW 7	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	54°F	48°F	80%	1009.2 hPa
Knox County Airfield, OH	17 mi	47 min	SSW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	48°F	48°F	100%	1009.5 hPa
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH	22 mi	49 min	WSW 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	53°F	46°F	80%	1009 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH	24 mi	2.8 hrs	S 3	10.00 mi	Fair	51°F	45°F	82%	1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVTA

Wind History from VTA (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH

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