Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Urbana, IL

UPDATE
Issued at 905 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

High pressure behind today's cold front will provide for dry conditions overnight, but the next disturbance will approach just after sunrise Wednesday morning. Latest high resolution models keep rain from spreading into the area until after 7 AM, so have trimmed back early morning PoPs before sunrise. Otherwise, light winds veering from northwesterly this evening to easterly by morning and lows from the upper 40s to mid 50s look on track.

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SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward toward the I-70 corridor. A cluster of strong to severe convection that developed along the tail end of the front across the Ozarks this morning has tracked E/NE into south-central Illinois this afternoon. In addition, scattered cells are forming ahead of the main cluster. Based on the latest radar loops, it appears the bulk of the convection will remain south of I-70...with the greatest severe weather risk staying just south of the KILX CWA While deep-layer shear in the warm sector ahead of the storms is quite weak, MLCAPEs of 1500-2000J/kg will be sufficient to support the potential for a few severe cells. Damaging wind gusts of around 60mph will be the primary risk: however, steep mid-level lapse rates and freezing levels of around 11,000ft will be supportive of large hail within the more vigorous updrafts. The storms will be ongoing across the far SE CWA from now through about 430pm...then will shift into Indiana.

Once the afternoon activity exits, a period of dry weather is anticipated tonight...before the frontal boundary begins to lift back northward as a warm front on Wednesday. HRRR/NAM suggest scattered showers developing during the morning, then becoming more numerous during the afternoon as the atmosphere moistens from the top-down. Instability will initially be paltry: however, MUCAPE values will increase to greater than 500J/kg later in the day into Wednesday night supporting thunder mention at that time.

As low pressure lifts northeastward across the region, showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into Thursday...before gradually coming to an end by Thursday evening. Storm total rainfall will generally range from 0.50 to 1.00.

Barnes

LONG TERM
(Friday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

A short-wave trough will dig southeastward from the Northern Plains on Friday...bringing clouds and perhaps a few light rain showers. Moisture will be limited, so have capped PoPs in the chance category (50% or less). After the wave passes, high pressure will build into the region...bringing cool and dry weather for the weekend. After that, temperatures will warm back above normal into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by early next week.

Barnes

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Rain and associated MVFR cigs are expected to return to the area around 14Z-17Z Wednesday as a warm front lifts toward the area. A few thunderstorms will be possible by 20-22Z, mainly around KSPI- KDEC-KCMI southward. Until 14Z, expect VFR conditions across the area. Winds turning from NW at 00Z to to NE by 06Z, and eventually SE by Wednesday morning, with wind speeds 5-10 kts this evening and overnight, increasing to 10-15 kts by 15Z.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.