Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Goldsboro, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal).

Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday.

In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular.

For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA to include all of central PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max will be present during peak heating as remnants of an MCS approach from the NW. With SBCAPE fcst in the 500-1000J/kg range, renewed convection is likely to initiate with a marginal threat of damaging winds.

The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible.

Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Outside of a few showers around BFD, mainly dry conditions are expected for much of the morning. VFR conditions should continue everywhere except for BFD, where most guidance continues to show MVFR ceilings developing for the late morning/early afternoon.

The next round of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected to move in for the afternoon and evening. PROB30s for -SHRA/-TSRA have been included at all TAF sites to highlight this threat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and coverage of these storms, so this part of the forecast will need to be refined with upcoming TAF issuances.
These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots. Winds outside of thunderstorms will be out of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely. Another round of showers and storms appears likely to move into the region from the northwest after 06Z Wednesday.

Surface winds will decrease to less than 10 knots after sunset, but winds around 2000 feet will strengthen to around 40 knots over southwestern PA. This will bring a period of LLWS to JST and AOO. VFR conditions should continue across most of the region overnight, but MVFR ceilings likely redevelop at BFD after 06Z.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west.

Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late.

CLIMATE
Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record.

Record High Daily Max / Daily Min...

For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023)
April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941)
April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002)

For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023)
April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023)
April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896)

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.