NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Another refreshingly clear/cool night ahead across CPA with min temps ranging from the mid-upper 40s in the usual cold spots in the NW Alleghenies to around 60 degrees in the LSV metro areas.
Continued to lean on the lowest 10th percentile NBM or closer to the traditional MAVMOS given very favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Expect patchy late night fog especially in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80 due to air/water temp differences >25 degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Fair and seasonably warm mid-summer conditions with low humidity are anticipated Saturday, followed by increasingly warmer/hotter and more humid conditions Sunday into Monday as high pressure slips off the East Coast and a return southerly flow develops.

Max temps range from 80-90F on Saturday (+5F above climo) to 85-95F on Sunday and Monday (+5-10F above climo).

Guidance shows a cutoff upper low retrograding into the northern Mid Atlantic early next week, resulting in a slower more blocky pattern evolution. Therefore, expect the chance of showers/storms to remain over far western PA on Monday. There may also be more cloud cover over the eastern part of the area and sky grids may need to be increased in time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Best odds for rain Tue and Wed across central PA as upper shortwave troughs slowly move through the region.

There remains some uncertainty with how the upper level pattern will progress next week, but building high pressure over the western and central US will bring an increasing threat for excessive heat as the calendar flips from July to August. As the ridge builds, it seems we could be in a favorable ring of fire pattern with daily chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Expect VFR conditions across the region into this evening and overnight. Similar conditions expected for Saturday and Sunday, as high pressure remains over the area. While there could be a brief period of fog at sites such as BFD either morning, the chance is quite low.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...Dry weather with predominantly VFR conds expected.

Tue-Wed...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE
The average temperature from July 1 to July 25, 2024 at Harrisburg is 80.7F, which is tied for the 3rd warmest July 1-25 period on record (81.8F in 2020, 81.5F in 1999, 80.7 in 1955).

The average temperature from June 1 to July 25, 2024 at Harrisburg was 78.2F, which is the warmest meteorological summer-to-date on record.

The average temperature from January 1 to July 25, 2024 at Harrisburg is 56.3F, which is the warmest year-to-date on record.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.