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FXUS65 KBOU 041113 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 413 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and windy higher mountains today.

- Windy today, continuing in the mountains and foothills tonight.

- Mountain snow and colder temperatures Thursday night through Saturday night. There is uncertainty about the snow potential for the lower elevations.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

One last shortwave trough has just passed Denver, with subsidence and warm advection aloft producing the expected burst of mountain wave activity. We've seen gusts as high as 72 mph at Rocky Flats as the band of favorable conditions drops across the area. This looks to be passing already and the amplification should decrease within the next couple of hours. It will still be windy with a lesser wave through the day. The big snow is over and there are some holes in the clouds over the mountains now. However, a shallow layer of moisture and instability should keep some light showers going mainly over the ridges through the day.

At lower elevations, winds will become northwesterly and increase behind the wave this morning. The northeast corner will have some mid and high cloudiness which the Denver area will be sheltered from, though some lesser wave clouds could still redevelop just east of the Front Range. It will still be pretty windy near the northern border, with 40-50 mph gusts this morning and some decrease later in the day.

Temperatures should be 10-15 degrees warmer today. Our forecast may be a little ambitious, especially in the northeast if there's a lot of cloud cover.

There's continued subsidence/drying/warming overnight with clearing on the plains early. The shallow moist layer upstream of the Front Range should fade but may not be gone completely.
Despite the clearing, lows should be warmer with the exception of the mountain valleys.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

Dry and warm upper ridging is in place for the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures look to be around 20 degrees above normal over the plains and foothills on the warmest of the days; Wednesday. It could be a bit breezy from the divide eastward into the foothills both days.

For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models show zonal flow for the CWA on Thursday, then southwesterly flow aloft Thursday night ahead of an upper trough that moves across Friday into Saturday morning. The trough will have decent moisture associated with it, at least for the mountains. The trough will also bring a cold front Friday morning, dropping temperatures to below seasonal normals for Friday continuing through the weekend. Snow is expected in the mountains Thursday night through Saturday, with a chance of snow over the plains Friday and Friday night. Snow accumulations in the mountains could be of highlight criteria but models are still trying to agree on a solution. From late Saturday afternoon through the Saturday night, a strong north- northwesterly jet maximum is over the CWA. On Sunday, strong northwesterly flow aloft is in place, but on the gradual decrease.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 413 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR through tonight. For KDEN/KAPA, west winds around 10 knots will develop in the morning, becoming more northwesterly with gusts in the 20-25 knot range after 18z. At KBJC, west winds gusting in the 20-30 knot range will develop in the 10z-12z time frame and continue through the day. Winds will diminish around 00z and become light southerly for KDEN/KAPA, with a slower decrease in west winds at KBJC overnight.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for COZ030-032.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for COZ031-033-034.

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