Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spring Lake, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected today behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues through the weekend.

2. A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part of next week. Cannot rule out temperatures reaching 90 for the I-95 corridor on Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected today behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues through the weekend.

In the wake of the cold front early this morning, cooler and drier conditions will filter into the region. RH values during the day today will fall to 25-35%, with breezy conditions.
Northwest winds will gust generally 20-25 mph. These conditions will lead to fire weather concerns, with any fires that start potentially able to spread rapidly. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for southeastern Pennsylvania where low fuel moistures will lead to the greatest risk of fire spread.

Conditions will be slightly less favorable for fire spread on Sunday as it appears RH will increase slightly and winds will be a bit lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part of next week. Cannot rule out temperatures reaching 90 for the I-95 corridor on Wednesday and Thursday.

After a seasonable weekend, a significant warming trend takes place across the area early next week. High pressure shifts offshore resulting in a modest return flow. By mid-week, high temperatures could surge well into the 80s across much of the area, with overnight lows only falling into the 60s. At this time, the warmest days appear to be both Wednesday and Thursday, where there is rather high confidence in mid to upper 80s for most of the region. Temperatures could even touch 90 in Philadelphia, which would mark the first 90 degree day of the year. As is typical in spring though, temperatures near the coast likely will be 15-25 degrees cooler.

A series of weak disturbances will result in a slight chance to low- end chance (15-30%) for showers or even an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday through Thursday, primarily in the evening hours and primarily for areas northwest of the I-95 corridor. The bulk of the period will be high and dry however, not good news for the drought.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Northwest winds around 10-15 kt, with gusts of 20-25 kt. Gusts begin to diminish 19-21Z. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds around 5 kts or less, favoring a northerly direction. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Monday through Monday Night...VFR. Slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm (15-20%) at KRDG/KABE in the afternoon. Wind gusts out of the southwest around 20-25 kt during the day.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...VFR. Slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm (15-20%) at KRDG/KABE in the afternoon.

Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm (15-20%) at KRDG/KABE in the afternoon.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory that is in effect for all NJ and DE Atlantic coastal waters remains in effect through 2 PM this afternoon.

West-northwesterly winds 10-15 kt. Seas around 5 feet expected, decreasing this afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions tonight with northerly winds around 10 knots and seas of 3-4 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday Night through Monday Night...SCA conditions likely (60-70%) as wind gusts out of the southwest near 25 kt and seas of 5 to 7 feet expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>455.