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LEZ144 Expires:202311290915;;575994 Fzus51 Kcle 290250 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 950 pm est Tue nov 28 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-290915- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 950 pm est Tue nov 28 2023
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 45 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 291136 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 636 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions are expected today into Thursday while southwest winds allow for a warming trend over the next couple of days.
An upper level disturbance will bring widespread rain to the region Thursday night into Friday. Dry conditions are expected on Saturday before another chance for precipitation returns for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Surface high pressure will continue to shift off to the southeast this morning as a weak surface trough/warm front moves east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. Some mid and high level clouds will be possible at times today, especially across northern portions of our area. This will also be accompanied by increasing southwesterly to westerly low level flow and a developing WAA pattern today. Breezy conditions will develop with wind gusts to around 25 mph possible later this morning and into this afternoon. This will help temperatures rebound with highs today mostly in the low to mid 40s. With some daytime mixing, will undercut dewpoints a bit which could lead to some RHs across our far southeast down into the low to mid 30s this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Weak mid level ridging will shift quickly east across the region tonight, leading to mostly clear conditions. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Broad west to southwest flow will then continue through the day on Thursday ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. Breezy conditions will again be possible with temperatures continuing to moderate.
Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 50s. Moisture will begin to increase through the day with clouds thickening up through the afternoon hours. Suppose a few showers may sneak into our far west late in the day, but the better chance for any pcpn should hold off through the daytime period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
On Thursday evening, the Ohio Valley will be at the onset of a somewhat active period of weather. At the surface, high pressure will be departing the southeastern US coast to the east. The mid- level pattern will feature generally WSW flow, with a well-defined shortwave moving through the southern plains. This shortwave will then move ENE on a trajectory into the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this wave, and on the western periphery of the departing surface high, will bring increasing theta-e into the Ohio Valley.

The initial band of rain, driven isentropically and by warm frontal processes aloft, will already be ongoing Thursday evening -- roughly in a SW-to-NE orientation Thursday evening and overnight. By 12Z Friday, however, a larger and more sustained area of forcing associated directly with the shortwave (and a swath of 50-60 knot 850mb SSW flow) will bring widespread precipitation to the entirety of the ILN CWA. Rainfall amounts of over a half inch are possible for parts of the forecast area. Hazardous weather, however, appears unlikely. Steady precipitation should come to an end by Friday afternoon. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

For Friday afternoon and evening, as a surface low translates toward Toledo, the ILN CWA will enter somewhat of a warm sector -- with thick low level moisture expected, but little in the way of strong forcing. Continued isentropic ascent will likely lead to chances for rain or drizzle into the overnight hours, along with thick low level cloud cover. A strung-out SW-to-NE cold front will finally come through the area by Saturday morning, switching winds to the WSW and bringing in slightly drier air -- ending precipitation chances. The flow behind the front will not really bring any colder air into the region, though, as highs Saturday (upper 40s to upper 50s) may even be warmer than conditions on Friday.

Forecast confidence becomes significantly lower for Sunday and beyond, with considerable spread in model solutions beyond the passage of the Friday/Saturday system. The overall flow pattern appears likely to be characterized by fast WSW flow from the southern plains through the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions.
Less certain is how much moisture will remain in the boundary layer, and on timing out potential sources for forcing. There is widespread model agreement in a wet period Saturday into Sunday across the southeastern US, and in a shortwave moving through the upper Midwest at around the same time. The degree to which these systems come into phase will impact what precipitation (if any) occurs in the ILN CWA.
There appears to be a chance of rain as a result, so this chance is reflected in the forecast, but confidence is only medium at best.
Additional waves in the northern stream, rotating around a longwave trough, may bring additional precipitation chances for Monday and maybe even Tuesday. There are no obvious signs of a significant drop in temperatures through this period, so rain still appears likely to be the primary precipitation type for anything that moves in.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An area of stratocumulus at around 5k feet will push quickly east across the area this morning. A few cu may then linger across mainly central Ohio into this afternoon, but for the most part, expect mostly clear skies through the remainder of the TAF period. Southwest winds will increase through late morning with gusts to around 25 knots then possible through this afternoon. Winds will decrease into the 5 to 10 knot range this evening and overnight.

OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday.
MVFR ceilings possible Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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