Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bradley Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:32PM Monday November 30, 2020 12:09 PM EST (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 5:50PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1023 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.gale warning in effect until 9 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..SE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming S 30 to 35 kt early this afternoon, then diminishing to 25 to 30 kt late. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft this afternoon. Rain late this morning and early afternoon. A slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and early afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds, building to 8 to 13 ft dominant period 9 seconds this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Showers likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers late in the evening. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1023 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A strong surface low will lift from the southeast early this morning to the saint lawrence valley tonight, where it will stall through Wednesday before continuing northward into eastern canada late this week. High pressure in the system's wake will build northeastward into the eastern u.s. Wednesday and Thursday before moving offshore Thursday night and Friday. Another system may affect the region this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bradley Beach , NJ
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location: 40.19, -73.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 301452 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 952 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong surface low will lift from the Southeast early this morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight, where it will stall through Wednesday before continuing northward into eastern Canada late this week. High pressure in the system's wake will build northeastward into the eastern U.S. Wednesday and Thursday before moving offshore Thursday night and Friday. Another system may affect the region this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

930 update: Low pressure continues to deepen SW of the area, with surface pressure obs in WV near the center of the low around 995 mb. The warm front is rapidly approaching southern parts of our area, and should move through more or less the whole area by mid-late afternoon. Only real update with this package was to expand the wind advisory to include all the Delaware Bay counties, and also adding Middlesex county. This is based on current observations which indicate a core of 45-50mph winds progressing northward, with the strongest winds occurring near the coast. Can't rule out a few 45 mph gusts inland but don't have enough confidence to expand the advisory any further westward at this time. Mid-lvl dry slot will be impinging on on SW portions of our forecast within the next few hours, which will mark the transition from the stratiform rainfall of this AM to the more showery/convective precip that will dominate in the afternoon. Total rainfall has been about 0.5-1 inch with the stratiform precipitation, and another 0.5-1 inch (maybe slightly higher in the SE upslope regions of the Poconos) will be possible with the convective precipitation this afternoon (although precip coverage will be more variable)

Previous discussion:

Following the stratiform rain, warm air advection will be continuing across the region in the wake of the warm front passage. Temperatures will rise well into the 60s for most locales with dewpoints also creeping into the low 60s. As a result, some surface based instability is likely to be realized into the afternoon. Guidance suggests MLCAPE values in the 500+ J/kg range with LLJ winds still around 50 kts. The latest NAM suggests MLCAPE reaching up to 1000 J/kg. This is rather alarming at face value given the high shear values that will be in place, however I suspect convection may struggle to develop as a robust dry slot will arrive aloft during the period of highest instability (the two are related). Regardless, there very well could still be a small window of opportunity for the instability to be realized by the environment before substantial drying occurs aloft.

CAMs continue to indicate scattered, fragmented, multi-mode convection developing across the forecast area. Any robust convection that can get going and maintain itself will have the potential to be of the "power shower" variety. These will have the potential to bring down the stronger winds from just above the surface in the form of damaging straight line wind gusts. If the best instability is realized (>500 J/kg), I wouldn't be surprised to see a low-topped supercell or two across the coastal plain. In addition to the convective wind potential, low level shear values will be high (40+ kts) with curved low level hodographs supportive of surface based rotation. The tornado potential is certainly non- zero with this environment, but given questionable convective mode the confidence is not particularly high on this potential. The SPC has upgraded portions of the forecast area to a slight risk for both damaging straight line winds and tornadoes. Not very confident on the occurrence of thunder, but cannot rule out some isolated strikes.

The low will continue moving north as it occludes across the eastern Great Lakes region. The attendant cold front will pass across the forecast area during the evening hours ushering in cooler and drier air and ending precip. The surface pressure gradient quickly weakens in the wake of the front, so southwesterly winds will diminish quickly to around 5-10 mph. Expected low temperatures generally in the 40s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. At 12z Tuesday, a deep trough will be centered in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, with a strong vort max pivoting northward to the east of the longer-wave trough. The attendant surface low will be meandering by this point near the Saint Lawrence Valley as the system acquires a vertical stack. Low-level southwesterly flow will be in place, with a rather tight pressure gradient given the proximity of the low. The midlevels will be cold, so I am expecting instability showers to be present much of the day across the area, especially northwest of the Fall Line. Despite the climatologically unfavorable low-level trajectories, temperatures will be much colder than those seen today, as cold advection will be equatorward of the stalling low. With variable/considerable cloudiness and periodic showers (especially in the north), not expecting temperatures to climb much at all, and they will likely be falling during the afternoon. Additionally, the strong pressure gradient will make for breezy conditions, with gusts 25 to 30+ mph possible during the day.

Given the increasing model signal for measurable QPF in northern portions of the CWA, I did increase PoPs a tad for northern areas and kept them mentionable everywhere through the day (as I suspect models may still be underplaying this potential a tad). Thermal profiles will be increasingly favorable for a rain/snow mix in the Poconos and vicinity by afternoon, though not expecting anything significant.

The large-scale pattern changes little Tuesday night and Wednesday, though the pressure gradient should be on a diminishing trend during this period. Nevertheless, another breezy day should be expected Wednesday, and periodic bouts of snow showers may occur in the Poconos. Models continue to look a little on the dry side in our northwest CWA, and the proximity of model-derived QPF is concerning enough to keep a mention of snow showers in Carbon and Monroe Counties through Wednesday. Again, not expecting anything significant, but occasional light snow showers seem probable during this period.

Wednesday will be colder than Tuesday, as cold advection continues to the south of the stalled cyclone. Expect highs in 30s in the Poconos and far northwest New Jersey and in the 40s elsewhere. By Wednesday night, the low to our north will begin to accelerate northward into eastern Canada, as it is kicked by a digging vort max in Ontario. This will allow a surface high in the Southeast to build northeastward toward the Eastern Seaboard. As winds diminish in this pattern, a good night of radiational cooling is expected. Trended lows downward Wednesday night, now firmly below model consensus.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The main concern for the medium-range forecast is the ultimate evolution of the large-scale pattern Friday through Sunday.

Quiet weather is expected Thursday, as midlevel ridging begins to affect the area. With rising heights, expect highs to be a little warmer than Wednesday, with winds lighter.

Model agreement goes off the rails Friday through the weekend, with run-to-run and model-to-model consistency seemingly absent for the past 48 hours. Models are really struggling with three distinct synoptic-scale features of interest: (1) a digging vort max in eastern Canada and the adjacent Northeast on Thursday and Friday, (2) a southern-stream perturbation that ejects eastward and interacts with the eastern Canada vort max, and (3) another digging vort max from central Canada, which acts to kick (1) and (2) eastward with time.

The GFS and CMC solutions look somewhat similar to each other but nothing similar to their simulations from 24 hours ago, with a somewhat progressive/elongated system moving through the eastern U.S. Friday and Saturday. This scenario poses a precipitation risk as early as Thursday night, with temperatures perhaps cold enough at onset for a wintry mix northwest of the Fall Line. The GFS is much deeper with the system, though, and ejects it on a farther-east track, which would be even more favorable for some wintry precipitation in the northwest CWA. Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF does not look remotely similar, with the southern-stream system shoved south of the area given the faster timing of the northern-stream vort max. This behavior was seen to some degree in last night's simulation, but the antecedent 12z counterpart solutions looked nothing like this pattern evolution. Given ensemble output, this solution seems lower probability but cannot be ruled out entirely.

The bottom line is that the Friday through Sunday period has the potential to be unsettled in our area, but there is little confidence in the sensible-weather details at this stage. A broad brush of slight-to-chance PoPs and temperatures near seasonal averages is appropriate at this stage. Eventually, the deterministic models develop a strong storm in the western Atlantic and/or New England early next week, which would spell windy conditions and potential for some showery precipitation (perhaps of the wintry variety).

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Prevailing MVFR ceilings with periods of IFR possible. Moderate to locally heavy rain through 18Z will result in visibility restrictions to MVFR and IFR. Scattered showers will continue after 18Z with isolated thunder possible. Winds southeasterly in the morning increasing to 10-15 kts at RDG and ABE and 15-20 kts at all other terminals. Gusts to around 30 kts (up to 40 kts at MIV and ACY). Winds will become more southerly after 18Z. LLWS likely through about 21-00Z. High confidence on overall evolution, moderate confidence on category changes.

Tonight . MVFR ceilings should scatter out and increase by around 00Z, then mainly VFR with some scattered lingering MVFR ceilings possible. Southwesterly winds around 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Mainly VFR or MVFR with scattered/periodic showers. Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt possible. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . VFR with west or southwest winds 5 to 15 kt, with gusts to 20+ kt on Wednesday. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR with west to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night and Friday . Restrictions possible with a chance of rain. There is some potential for a wintry mix northwest of PHL. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Very low confidence.

MARINE. Monday . Southeasterly winds will increase sharply to gale force after daybreak this morning. Sustained winds in excess of 30 kts are expected with gusts up to 45 kts across the ocean waters. Seas will also increase quickly as the winds continue to increase throughout the morning with heights of 8-12 feet expected across the ocean waters and up to 5 feet on Delaware Bay. The Gale Warning was extended a couple hours for the ocean waters mainly to cover lingering gale force winds across the northern areas. Expect moderate to heavy rain during the morning hours with showers continuing during the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible.

Monday night . Winds should drop off quickly into the evening hours and continue to diminish overnight down to 10-15 kts from the southwest. Seas will remain elevated though with heights up to 8 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for this period once the Gale Warning expires.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Advisory conditions expected with southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with higher gusts. Cannot rule out marginal gales. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . Advisory conditions probable, with winds west to southwest 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet Tuesday night and 4 to 7 feet on Wednesday, subsiding with time.

Wednesday night . Advisory conditions possible, with west winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday through Friday . Sub-advisory conditions expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. With the strong storm system expected to affect the area today and the full moon occurring early this morning, the coastal flooding threat remains elevated in our tidal locations. However, the forecast is not straightforward, as the strongest winds and the attendant surge are generally going to occur after the high tide this morning.

The southern Atlantic coast: A round of minor-to-advisory level flooding is expected with the high tide this morning. A coastal flood advisory is in effect. The subsequent high tide this evening will be the lower of the two astronomical tides, with the highest surge expected near the time of low tide. At this time, not expecting widespread minor flooding after this morning, but will continue to monitor.

The northern Atlantic coast: It looks like coastal Monmouth and Ocean Counties will be far enough north to see little in the way of coastal flooding this morning. However, back bays (and the especially susceptible northern Barnegat Bay) may see some prolonged flooding as the southeast winds maximize this afternoon, given little evacuation of water is expected after this morning's high tide. Subsequent high tides may be close to minor benchmarks, but currently do not think advisories will be needed in these areas.

Delaware Bay: With the high tide expected later in the morning and very favorable southeast surface flow immediately preceding high tide, widespread minor flooding is likely. A coastal flood advisory is in effect this morning.

The tidal Delaware River: Confidence is still too low for advisory issuance, but the surge of water up Delaware Bay combined with increasing freshwater runoff will likely yield tidal levels higher than guidance is suggesting. Spotty minor flooding is probable, and widespread minor flooding is possible. Will monitor observations closely this morning, and a coastal flood advisory cannot be ruled out. High tide is generally between 1 and 3 pm in these locations.

The eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay: Strong southeast winds combined with a later high tide seem to suggest minor flooding is possible, if not probable, in tidal portions of eastern Maryland. Will monitor observations closely during the morning, with an advisory issuance possible if upstream (lower bay) observations confirm suspicions that models are underforecasting this potential. High tide is late this afternoon and early this evening in these areas.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ012>014-016- 020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NJZ021-023-024. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ016. DE . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for DEZ001>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for DEZ001. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . Carr/Staarmann Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/Staarmann Marine . CMS/Staarmann Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi40 min SE 27 G 35 55°F1001.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi52 min 58°F
44091 30 mi44 min 56°F9 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi52 min 58°F 53°F
MHRN6 33 mi70 min E 30 G 37
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi52 min 58°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi52 min 58°F 54°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi40 min SE 29 G 39 56°F1002.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi52 min 61°F 48°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 44 mi52 min 59°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 49 mi40 min ESE 23 G 35 57°F 57°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi94 min SSE 13 G 24 61°F 47°F999.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi74 minSE 19 G 332.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Breezy59°F57°F96%1002.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi70 minSSE 21 G 261.75 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy60°F60°F100%1001.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW10W7SW6SW5W4W3SW4W5NW6W5W4N4NE4CalmCalmW5W3CalmCalmSW3CalmW3W8W12

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:32 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     4.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:20 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:20 PM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.71.93.14.14.854.63.62.51.40.5-00.10.81.92.93.74.143.32.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     4.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:15 PM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.61.72.83.84.64.84.33.42.31.20.4-00.10.81.82.73.53.93.7321.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.