Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Galena, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper level low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will begin to lift slowly northeast overnight. With a ridge axis still in place across the southern Great Lakes, the net effect will mainly just be a continued increase in high and then mid level clouds across our area through the night. It will be tough to rule out a few showers for areas to the south of the Ohio River late tonight, the airmass across our area quite dry, think the better chance for any pcpn will hold off across our area until after daybreak. Temperatures will be mild tonight with overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
The upper level low will lift slowly northeast into the southern Tennessee Valley Monday into Monday night. With embedded bands of mid level vorticity rotating around the low, occasional showers will pivot up across our area Monday. This will be moving into a drier airmass though, so this may help limit more widespread activity. As a result, have generally kept pops in the higher chance to likely category. There will likely be some diurnal component to the pcpn and as we destabilize slightly through the afternoon, a few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across our southern areas, where the afternoon instability should be somewhat better.
With the clouds and some pcpn, temperatures will not be quite as warm on Monday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. Will then taper back to just a lower end chance for pcpn through Monday night as we lose the diurnal heating. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A closed upper low southwest of the CWA will situate itself over southern CWA Tues night and become an open wave early Wed with the axis of the open wave located over/northeast of the CWA on Wed. A weak ridge builds in behind this trough late Thurs, becoming zonal sw-w flow overnight and lingering through Saturday as an upper low north of the region tracks eastward. Flow behind the upper low turns nw on Sun, though timing of the exiting low diverges overnight Saturday with the Euro being more progressive and the GFS holding back.

Significant cloud cover with light se flow on Tues will produce a slight increase on Mon's highs and reach the mid 70s. This blanketing cloud cover will hold overnight lows to only drop to near 60 degrees. Wed is forecast to be in the mid-upper 70s which is trending slightly higher toward GFS forecast with little reason to raise Wed highs from Tues given unchanged upper and lower level features. Thurs highs in the mid 80s look to be good given slightly increased thicknesses over the region. It's overnight that has a significant boost with lows in the upper 60s. This appears to be overdone and should have put a higher weight towards the GFS which is pushing a cold front through the CWA by Fri morning, consistent with prior runs and in sync with pop chances in this scenario. Went against NBM which has a scenario showing pops consistent with a weak fropa, no backing of wind to indicate fropa, and significantly warmer lows. Can understand the consistent sw flow with a weak fropa, but the warmer temps in sly flow would not be this high. This also speaks to Thurs highs being too warm. Agreement on a fropa on Sat brings highs down to the upper 70s and lows into the mid-upper 50s. Sun and overnight will likely show a continued drop in temps of about 5 deg on highs and 2 deg on lows.

With few exceptions, models are in fair agreement wrt temps though Thur/Thur night are too warm in my estimation.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High level clouds will continue to spill into the area tonight from the south ahead of an upper level low that will lift slowly north from the lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Monday. Scattered showers will move into areas along and south of the Ohio River late tonight and then spread north across the rest of the area Monday morning into the afternoon. As moisture increases and the low levels moisten up, some MVFR cigs will develop through the morning hours and into the afternoon. Weak instability developing through the day, a few thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon.

Northeast to east winds at 10kts or less overnight will back to the east-southeast around 10 kts on Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday. MVFR CIGs expected Monday night into Tuesday, with IFR CIGs possible.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.