Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Galena, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A broad mid level trof over the Northern and Central Plains to elongate southeast thru the Upper MS Valley and the into the Great Lakes today.

Lead shortwave and isentropic lift will result in rain showers overspread the region from the southwest ahead of a warm front.
Most of the model solutions suggest a lack of instability. Given forcing and steep mid level lapse rates - some of the CAM solutions indicate some very marginal elevated instability. Therefore, some embedded thunder is likely this morning across the southwest.

The initial short wave will pass across the area this morning and widespread showers will diminish as they head east into the drier airmass. Warm front to lift to near the Ohio River before stalling out. Convective activity to increase during the afternoon into the evening as another short wave moves through the region. A good deal of uncertainty remains regarding exactly how far north the warm front makes it prior to stalling out. This affect the amount of instability.
HRRR probabilities of SBCAPE values greater than 1000 J/KG are generally 30-50 percent across ILN/s far southwest counties. There will be the potential for all forms of severe weather near and south of wherever the warm front stalls out - which may be far southern counties of the forecast area.

In addition, abundant moisture will have advected inn allowing for efficient rainfall. Some corridors of heavy rain may occur which could lead to flash flooding. Severe potential decreases the further north of the warm front due to lack of instability.

As the second short wave progresses east, a surface low will track across the area. In the wake of this, precipitation chances will decrease during the latter part of the night.

Highs will only be in the 60s north of the warm front but in the lower to mid 70s south of the front. Lows tonight to range from the lower 50s north to near 60 south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Mid level trof to develop into the area with elongated surface trof across the area Wednesday. This will keep showers in the forecast with the best coverage across the north. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible with marginal instby indicated across the eastern counties. Cool temperatures with highs Wednesday from the mid 60s northwest to near 70 southeast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface low pressure will slowly fill and wobble northeast across Lake Erie Wednesday night into Thursday, and continue across Lake Ontario on Friday. Aloft, a series of shortwaves will drop across the Great Lakes in a northwesterly flow pattern. Overall, troughing will provide below normal temperatures through much of the long term.

Sunshine will return on Friday and will continue through Saturday as heights begin to rise in response to developing low pressure across the southern plains. Isentropic lift ahead of this low will bring increased chances of precipitation Sunday and will continue through the close of the period on Monday as the low ejects east across the Tennessee or Ohio Valley.

In the cooler pattern, have kept low chances of hazardous weather in the HWO during the extended period.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid level ridge shifts east of the area this morning with widespread WAA rain showers moving into the southwest toward sunrise. These showers will overspread northeast acrs all TAF sites thru the morning.

Scattered rain showers continue through the day with embedded thunderstorms across the southern TAF sites thru the evening. Ceilings lower thru MVFR to IFR this morning. IFR conditions are expected to continue into the afternoon. Some uncertainty exists regarding timing for improvement to MVFR. Have allowed for a period of MVFR ceilings later in the day into this evening prior to dropping back to IFR late tonight.

Easterly winds this morning become southeasterly by evening, sustained around 10-15 knots with some 20 knot gusts possible.

OUTLOOK.. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.