Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Loch Arbour, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:30PM Sunday July 5, 2020 2:40 AM EDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 129 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Rest of tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Isolated showers. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 129 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front remains situated off to our south and west this afternoon. A secondary cold front will attempt to work southward into the region early Monday, before stalling and lifting back northward. A summer-like pattern persists through the week with afternoon showers and Thunderstorms and above average temperatures. A coastal low looks to move out of the southeast and into the mid- atlantic into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loch Arbour, NJ
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location: 40.23, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 050506 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 106 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front remains situated off to our south and west this afternoon. A secondary cold front will attempt to work southward into the region early Monday, before stalling and lifting back northward. A summer-like pattern persists through the week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms and above average temperatures. A coastal low looks to move out of the Southeast and into the Mid- Atlantic into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. KDIX radar indicating a few sporadic showers across portions of Sussex and Warren counties, and a few more over Middlesex and Monmouth counties. Will go ahead and add slight chance PoPs for isolated showers for a few hours.

Otherwise, main forecast concern the rest of the overnight is patchy fog development. With proximity to minor vorticity maxima aloft, think potential for denser fog is quite localized, especially given the sparse coverage of precipitation today. Nevertheless, recent surface observations suggest fog will be present overnight as winds become calm.

Low temperatures should be slightly above seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. On Sunday, a lee-side surface trough will likely be in place across the northeast and Mid Atlantic states. As a couple of weak short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area, they could help lead to a few isolated/scattered showers or thunderstorms. PW values decrease from north to south through the day, but will remain 1.25- 1.50 inches across southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland through the day, so these areas will have a better chance of seeing any heavier rainfall.

The surface trough will drift offshore through the evening hours, and PW values will continue to lower to 1.00-1.25 inches. With no strong short wave/voticity impulses overnight, a dry forecast is expected overnight Sunday.

On Monday into Monday night, another backdoor front approaches from the north and settles across the area, while moisture increases as PW values increase to 1.50-1.75 inches. A couple of short waves/vorticity impulses are forecast to move across the area. This could lead to a chance of scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms through the day and into the evening hours on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A relatively warm upcoming week as ridging slowly begins to take hold across the eastern U.S. Temperatures look to average A slow- moving mid-level disturbance will trek across the Southeast late week, possibly impacting our region into the weekend as a coastal low.

A quiet start to the extended Tuesday as ridging expands eastward across the eastern U.S. ahead of a developing synoptic trough across the West Coast. The stalled fronts mentioned previously mentioned in the the synopsis above will begin to retreat northward as a warm front. To our north, a potent shortwave and surface low look to move across central Canada into the Hudson Bay region. Meanwhile, a southern stream perturbation will work its way across the Gulf Coast as surface low pressure begins to form. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms both afternoons appear likely with the front in the vicinity and forecast SB CAPE values from 1000 to potentially 3000 J/kg. Highs will be seasonably warm in the upper 80s to low 90s.

The aforementioned low to our south looks to enter the Carolinas Thursday, but this is where model discrepancy becomes more noticeable. The GFS takes the center inland across the Piedmont, while the EC keeps the center off the coast. Another factor of question is how this surface low will interact with an approaching shortwave trough across the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. If the GFS prediction has its way, a wetter forecast looks to take place for our region, but if the low stays well enough offshore, we may remain sandwiched between both features, going mostly unscathed.

Am somewhat more inclined to believe the EC at this time given previous environmental support for cut-off lows this year, but kept wide chance PoPs for the region through the weekend. Wouldn't call it a washout, but will want to monitor the forecast as model agreement on storm track solidifies. Highs look to remain seasonable in the mid to upper 80s across the region Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR. Patchy fog is expected to occur at some of the terminals (best chances at RDG/ABE/TTN and MIV/ACY). Light and variable winds. Low confidence with patchy fog; otherwise, high confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers/storms, but most terminals will likely be unaffected. Mostly variable winds under 10 kt, but a predominant west wind may develop during the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR with light and variable winds. Moderate confidence.

Monday-Monday night . Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. West-southwest winds 5-10 knots during the day, become light out of the south-southeast during the evening and overnight.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Thursday . Prevailing VFR with temporary restrictions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. South to southeasterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. Higher gusts in stronger thunderstorms possible. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Tonight-Monday night . Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels through the period, although winds could gust around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day which could lead to locally higher winds and waves.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Thursday . Sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through this period with southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts around 15 knots. A few gusts to near 20 knots possible at times each afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon may yield temporary gusts above 25 knots. Seas ranging from 2 to 3 feet.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Sunday, although the risk could become moderate late Sunday afternoon if southerly winds are a bit stronger than currently forecasted.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High tide has passed for the New Jersey and Delaware coastal ocean waters, and water levels continue to recede and are below minor advisory thresholds. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Advisory expired at midnight.

High tide is upcoming for the tidal portion of the Delaware River and its tributaries. Although some spots may touch minor thresholds, they should fall below Advisory thresholds, so minor flooding should be highly localized.

For the high tide Sunday evening: With winds shifting slightly off shore, it appears that only spotty minor flooding is possible at this time.

Tidal flooding is not expected on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . CMS/MPS/Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Davis Aviation . CMS/Davis Marine . Davis/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi53 min 72°F 77°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi31 min S 9.7 G 12 74°F1013.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi53 min 73°F 75°F
MHRN6 30 mi71 min S 5.1 G 8
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi53 min 72°F
44091 33 mi75 min 75°F2 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi53 min 72°F 72°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi53 min 72°F 82°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi53 min 72°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi31 min S 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 75°F1014.1 hPa68°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi56 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 71°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi65 min S 5.1 G 8 72°F 82°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi45 minN 08.00 miLight Rain70°F0°F%1014.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi1.7 hrsno data10.00 miA Few Clouds0°F0°F%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6NE7NE5NE6NE7N9NE65NW7E3E7E7E6SE6SE5S5SE5SE7SE4S3S3S4Calm
1 day agoW5W5W4W3W5NW7NW9NW6NW7N6NW8N4E8SE6SE6SE6SE5E10E11E7SE4E5E5E6
2 days agoW4W4W3NW4NW6NW3NW4NW64N5NW7NW43SE8S6W11NW4SW5W4SW4CalmW4W3W5

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:04 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:07 AM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:06 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.1-0.4-0.10.92.13.34.24.64.33.52.41.30.500.31.32.745.15.75.64.83.5

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:03 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:03 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:06 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.1-0.20.10.923.244.44.13.32.21.30.50.10.41.32.53.84.95.55.44.63.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.