Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Allenhurst, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Several cold fronts will be tracking through the area through Friday night. This will be the transition from the warmth to an arctic airmass bringing dangerously cold wind chills to all of the region by Friday night and into the start of the weekend.

2. Low pressure will impact the area Saturday night through late Monday morning with significant snow accumulations, however, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and even plain rain may result in lower snow accumulations than would otherwise be expected.

3. Arctic air will remain over the area next week with temperatures not rising above freezing until possibly next weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Several cold fronts will be tracking through the area through Friday night. This will be the transition from the warmth to an arctic airmass bringing dangerously cold wind chills to all of the region by Friday night and into the start of the weekend.

Seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s are occuring across the area this afternoon. The warmth will be short-lived however, as we'll be transitioning to an arctic airmass over the next 24-36 hours. The initial cold front is currently located over east-central Pennsylvania and will track east across the Mid- Atlantic and off the coast by this evening.
Wind gusts up to 30-40 mph have occurred across much of the area, but will diminish into tonight as the front departs.
Temperatures tonight will fall back to more seasonable levels with lows mainly in the upper teens to upper 20s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Temperatures on Friday will remain seasonable for one more day; topping out in the low to mid 30s north and west to low to mid 40s south and east. This will be the last of 'normal' temperatures for quite a while as a potent secondary arctic front sweeps across the area by mid to late afternoon. Strong cold air advection pours into the region for Friday night where 850 mb temps are expected to range from -15C to -25C. This equates to surface temps falling into the single digits (or below zero on the Pocono Plateau). Not only will the temperatures be falling rapidly, but winds will pick up in wake of the secondary front; driven by a tightening pressure gradient between a very strong 1044 mb arctic high and departing low.
This combination of single digit temperatures and wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph will result in wind chills below zero areawide. For this reason, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire forecast area for Friday night through Saturday morning. Where winds may be slightly higher and temps will be colder, wind chills may get as low as -20F on the Pocono Plateau. Possible upgrades to an Extreme Cold Warning cannot be ruled out for Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA.

While the peak of the cold air aloft occurs Friday night, the arctic airmass remains overhead through the day on Saturday with strong surface high pressure building over the Great Lakes.
High temps will only be in the teens to low 20s but fortunately winds will be diminishing. Dry conditions are expected through Saturday. This will be the last day to prepare for any storm preparations, so take any necessary precautions as needed to stay warm if outdoors.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure will impact the area Saturday night through late Monday morning with significant snow accumulations, however, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and even plain rain may result in lower snow accumulations than would otherwise be expected.

Arctic high pressure will be north of New York State Saturday night and will gradually lift to the northeast throughout the day Sunday, finally departing Sunday night. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough will continue to exit out of the Rocky Mountains and surface low pressure continues to organize and develop over the Gulf Coast states Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Surface low then takes a run towards the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening before moving offshore and out to sea Sunday night through Monday.

Overrunning precipitation develops on a developing warm front out ahead of the surface low Saturday night. With temperatures mainly in the teens, any precipitation that develops will be snow and snow accumulations will occur quickly. With snow ratios from 15-20:1, can expect a quick 1 to 3 inches over northern zones, 3 to 6 inches from around Philadelphia, through southern New Jersey, and into northern Delmarva, and 5 to 7 inches across southern Delmarva. What will need to be watched is if snow ratios lower late at night across southern Delmarva as warmer air lifts to the north.

From there, snow continues to ramp up throughout the day Sunday. 12Z models have continued to trend to the north, and as a result, more in the way of warmer air will spread into the region aloft. The 12Z/22 ECMWF looks to be centered over the Delmarva Peninsula by Sunday evening, while the 12Z/22 GFS has the center of the low some 50-100 miles southeast of the ECMWF.
The 12Z NAM now goes out until 00Z Monday and splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS. The 12Z/22 CMC is even a bit more to the northeast than the ECMWF. Ultimately, this results in a warmer solution, and can expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain well into southeast Pennsylvania, mainly along the I-95 corridor, and northern New Jersey, while rain and snow will develop along the New Jersey coast and southern Delaware. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precipitation remains all snow. Cannot rule out a period of plain rain for portions of the southeast New Jersey coast and southern Delaware coast.

This wintry mix continues through Sunday evening before changing back to all snow late Sunday night. Snow then continues into Monday morning before ending.

Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15 inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in southern Delmarva. While liquid QPF will be lower in the northern zones, the higher snow ratios will result in higher snow amounts in those areas. The main issue continues to be how much mixing will occur and how that will affect snow accumulations. While the overall average looks to be 12 to 15 inches, it is also quite possible for accumulations to be less, generally on the order of 8 to 12 inches from around Philadelphia south, with even less in southern Delmarva and along the extreme southeast New Jersey coast.

The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect through late Monday morning/early Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Arctic air will remain over the area next week with temperatures not rising above freezing until possibly next weekend.

High pressure builds in from the north on Monday, and temperatures will be fairly cold with highs generally in the 20s to maybe low 30s in the far southern portions of the forecast area. A strong cold front then passes through Monday night and bitterly cold Arctic air spreads into the region with lows in the single digits Monday night and highs in the teens on Tuesday. Cold Weather Advisories and even Cold Air Warnings may be needed due to low wind chills as strong northwest winds develop behind the front. Highs will then be only slightly warmer Wednesday and Thursday.

Due to this prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures, do not expect any help from Mother Nature with melting the new snowpack. In fact, temperatures may not get above freezing until next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through 12z...VFR/SKC. Westerly winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Today...VFR. Winds increase between 14z out of the west/northwest with 15-20 kt sustained winds and gusts 25-30 kt or so. Between 22-00z, winds go more northwesterly, with gusts up to 30 kt possible.

Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds 15-20 kt, gusting up to 30 kt for the first half of the night. Winds diminish gradually around 06z, settling to around 10 kt by daybreak Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday night...VFR initially, then sub-VFR in SN.

Sunday through Sunday night...Sub-VFR in SN, with SN/PL/FZRA likely for all but KRDG/KABE. Mixed precipitation changes back to SN late Sunday night.

Monday through Monday night...Conditions improve to VFR by Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...VFR.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories have been issued from Sandy Hook to Little Egg Inlet beginning at 10 AM Friday. Small Craft Advisories for the remainder of the Atlantic Coastal waters and Delaware Bay have been issued beginning at 4 PM on Friday.

West-northwest winds around 10-20 kt will continue through tonight with seas around 3-4 feet. Winds will then increase from north to south on Friday following a cold frontal passage.
Winds are expected to gust up to 25-30 kt in the afternoon with seas of 3-5 feet. Fair weather expected outside of SCA conditions.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisories continue through Friday night. Conditions gradually start to diminish on Saturday, where extensions of the SCA will likely be needed.

Saturday night...SCA conditions likely.

Sunday through Sunday night...Strong SCA conditions with gale force winds possible. VSBY restrictions in SN and RA.

Monday...Improving VSBYs by Monday afternoon. SCA conditions continue.

Monday night...Gales likely on all waters. Freezing spray possible.

Tuesday...SCA conditions likely with a chance for freezing spray.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon for PAZ070-071-101-102-104.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ060>062-101>106.
Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ012>014-016>027.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon for NJZ016>019-021>025-027.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ001-007>010-015.
Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for NJZ001-007>010-012>015-020-026.
DE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Saturday for DEZ001>004.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon for DEZ001>004.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Saturday for MDZ012-015-019-020.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431-452>455.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450-451.