Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Timber Hills, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Interesting setup across Central PA (near and just south of the I-80 corridor (for about the the next 18-24 hours) in the form of a quasi stnry frontal boundary a few to several KFT AGL. High res ensemble guidance and its indiv members highlight a risk periods of moderate to heavy rain (with a potential for localized flash flooding) within a corridor about 25 NM north and south of I-80 in Central PA.

Tight isentropic packing within a few different layers and periods of strong isentropic upglide over this frontal boundary (with slightly negative LIs in the 925-850 mb layer across the Central and Southern portions of the state will bring the potential for some enhanced precip rates of over 1 inch per hour through the mid afternoon today.

Increasing precip rates should develop once again for the second half of this morning, as a result of backing low-mid level winds (from the southwest to southerly) ahead of a low- mid level swrly jet max. Lifted indices aloft will be slightly negative and support some low-topped TSRA that will be embedded within the much larger area of SHRA.

These ingredients that will vary only a little over the next 18+ hours, and will focus a threat for locally excessive rainfall rates and potential for some localized flash flooding of poor drainage areas and small streams (mainly across the Central Mtns and Mid Susquehanna Valley. A Flash Flood Watch was issued for a handful of Counties in Central and Western PA (including communities in the Middle Susquehanna Valley through this afternoon. WPC ERO places PA in the MRGL category for Days 1-2 (Sat/Sun).

Increased cloud cover along with higher humidity points toward lower daytime highs (mid 60s to low 70s) and higher nighttime lows (60s)

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
The elevated frontal boundary will pivot to more of a NW - SE orientation for tonight and Sunday, and become more diffuse, which should lead to lower precip rates from less widespread showers.

Rainfall amounts in the 00-12Z Sunday period should be under 0.25 inch for most places.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Overall tone/message of the long term has not changed with this late evening update = high PoPs (relatively for the long range).
While confidence in timing of the stronger waves is low, confidence is high that we'll get wet many of these days.

Prev...
Unsettled weather pattern continues into next week with ample opportunities for rain. A series of shortwave impulses rippling west to east into a high PW corridor within a quasi zonal or "troughy" 500mb configuration from Midwest into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast will continue to bring periods of rain showers and locally heavy downpours. WPC ERO for Sunday (D4)
includes all of CPA while shifting the southern tier on Monday (D5).

Sunday/Monday look like the coolest days with CAD signature established to the north of sfc wave tracking through the Delmarva. Temps rebound by midweek as flow shifts back to the west/southwest.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Widespread restrictions expected throughout the TAF period with periods of moderate to heavy rain, light winds, and low ceilings. IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail at all airfields today, with only a low chance of improvement to MVFR at JST, MDT, and LNS for a few hours late this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but not enough confidence at any airfield to include mention in the TAFs.

Rain should taper off this evening, with only a stray shower or two expected overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ010>012- 017>019-045-046-049>053.