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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 633 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 633 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a weak ridge of high pressure moves overhead today and low pressure slides by well to our south. A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will return to the waters Thursday and Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night and are likely on Wednesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 041221 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 721 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Upper level troughing is expected over the region through the middle of this week, with a pair of weak Alberta Clippers passing mainly south of Pennsylvania. Upper level ridging should build over Pennsylvania late in the week, with low pressure potentially tracking west of the state over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Clouds creeping a little more to the SE and should hang around for the day as the higher clouds spill over. Have taken maxes down a deg or two.

Prev...
Cross-lake flow continues to generate some lake effect and upslope showers (rain at this point). Slight veering (10-20 degs) of the mean cloud layer will push a few more of these showers into the NW mtns this morning. The temps will get cold enough to produce some snowflakes mixing into the rain today, but mild ground temps and solar/radiant heat should keep accums from occurring. Someone's garbage can lid could get white in the higher elevations this morning, but roads should not be impacted. Cloud cover will increase slowly where it clear this morning. The higher clouds from a Clipper passing well to the south will overspread the srn half of the area. Temps won't get above 40F in the higher elevations of the Alleghenies and Laurels. They may get near 50F in the SErn cities. Those values are just about normal for early Dec.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Surface ridging building into the region should cause any lingering rain/snow showers across the NW Mtns to dissipate tonight, with lows dipping into the upper 20s to low 30s areawide. The clouds will be tough to get rid of, though, without much change in wind direction.

The sfc low of the next Alberta Clipper to drop out of the Plains today will pass (well) south of PA on Tuesday. This moisture-starved system appears likely to produce a period of light snow across the Laurel Highlands and perhaps the other western highlands/Allegheny Plateau. A light (1-2")
accumulation is likely for the Laurels Tues-Tues night. Clippers usually have high SLRs, but most guidance indicates SLR over the Laurels will be 12-15:1 Tues night. That's not very fluffy at all. We will shade snow amounts a little higher to allow for SLRs more on the high end of that range to lean toward climatology for a Clipper. Elsewhere, a bit of light snow/flurries is possible, but ensemble guidance indicates the chance of measurable precip is <50pct.

Maxes of 35-45F are expected on Tues as we don't mix too high.
With all the cloud cover, the temps only drop to m20s to l30s at night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weakening clipper should have passed south of PA by early Wednesday. However, passage of a deepening upper level trough could be accompanied by additional snow showers, primarily over the Laurel Highland, where an upsloping NW flow and nearly a saturated sfc-700mb layer in the models supports a good chance of lingering AM snow showers. Wednesday will likely be the coldest day of next week, with rising heights expected thereafter.
Fair and chilly conditions are expected Wed night, as ridging builds in.

Warm advection preceding a warm front lifting through the Grt Lks could potentially produce a brief period of light snow across NW PA early Thursday. Otherwise, medium range guidance supports fair and increasingly mild conditions late this week, as upper level ridging builds along the east coast.

The bulk of guidance tracks a deepening surface low west of PA next weekend. Without a blocking high to the northeast of PA, expect well above normal temps in this scenario. There remains plenty of model spread with regards to timing of the associated cold front. However, odds favor a round of showers late in the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Broadly convergent WSW flow at upper levels moving into the axis of a 160 KT 300 mb jet that extended from the Delmarva Region to East of the NJ Coast will help to maintain generally VFR conditions for most or all of the 12Z TAF period, while the Northern and Western Mtns of PA see mainly MVFR stratocu Cigs and ocnl MVFR Vsbys in -shsn. A few isolated --shra are possible across the Susq Valley this afternoon/evening. Periods of IFR are expected at KBFD later this afternoon through much of tonight.

The initial, approximate 2-4 kft deep cloud layer (expanding vertically to 5-6 kft deep this afternoon and evening) will be the result of temps in the low to mid levels cooling by another 2-3 deg C over the upcoming 18 hours and limited moisture from the upstream Great Lakes being lifted orographically.

West-Southwest sfc winds will gust into the mid teens and low 20s in many locations through most or all of today with higher gusts of 30 to 35 mph likely across the Laurel Highlands INVOF KJST until later this morning or perhaps early this afternoon.

Outlook...

Mon...MVFR/IFR western 1/3 with snow showers.

Tue-Wed...Light rain/snow with sub-VFR likely.

Thu...Chance of rain or snow.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 03:23 AM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:28 AM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:38 PM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:25 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 01:59 AM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:09 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:11 PM EST     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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