Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Timber Hills, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Hires models show the majority of showers/storms will shift to the east before midnight (in fact, most guidance has the bulk of the convective activity winding down before 8 PM). Min temps will be a bit cooler than last night, with fog likely forming in the valleys through the predawn hours Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Similar overall synoptic setup on Wednesday & Thursday with gradual southward shift to the severe t-storm and FF risk areas coincident with zone of max PW. Conditions will remain humid and with daytime highs in the 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The forecast for Friday and the weekend is more uncertain, with some guidance suggesting a break in the unsettled pattern, and others suggesting active weather continues. An active pattern would favor continue heat/humidity while a quieter pattern could support the intrusion of lower dewpoints and more refreshing conditions.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
In the wake of a cold front, areas that have received locally heavy rainfall this evening will have higher potential for fog and widespread visibility restrictions overnight. At this time, have progged AOO/UNV towards LIFR conditions overnight; however, model guidance indicates some potential at all airfields except for MDT/LNS. Have stuck with guidance trends; however, will have to continue to monitor trends at MDT/LNS with heavy rainfall and fog potential overnight.

After sunrise on Wednesday (12Z Wed - 18Z Wed), model guidance shows fair agreement with respect to restrictions being lifted by 12Z for most airfields. The 18Z TAF package does set the goal post slightly wider, with widespread restrictions lifting closer to 13-14Z give some lingering low-level moisture in RAP model soundings.

Outlook...

Wed...Best chance for storms and restrictions in southern PA.

Thu-Sun...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly aftn/eve.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.