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PZZ410 1010 Am Pst Thu Nov 30 2023
.strong Thunderstorms over the waters...
the areas affected include... Coastal waters from cape mendocino to pt. Arena ca out 10 nm... Coastal waters from pt. St. George to cape mendocino ca out 10 nm... Humboldt bay... Humboldt bay bar... Waters from cape mendocino to pt. Arena ca from 10 to 60 nm... Waters from pt. St. George to cape mendocino ca from 10 to 60 nm...
at 1008 am pst, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 18 nm north of trinidad head to 11 nm northwest of cape mendocino to 62 nm southwest of eureka, moving south at 15 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
lat...lon 4173 12415 4110 12416 4098 12412 4076 12423 4087 12415 4085 12409 4083 12408 4080 12418 4070 12421 4070 12427 4071 12427 4044 12441 3973 12493 4008 12512 4072 12471 4178 12434 4178 12426

PZZ400 210 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters...after the peak of westerly swell this morning, seas will slowly subside into the weekend. A line of showers moves through early this morning, which could bring isolated Thunderstorms, small hail, and isolated gale force gusts in the northern waters. Winds will diminish this afternoon.

FXUS66 KEKA 062252 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 252 PM PST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
The strongest rain will continue to move east and dissipate. More showery precipitation will build in overnight bringing a threat of small hail to the coast and snow above 3500 feet. Calmer, drier weather is on track Friday into the weekend.



DISCUSSION
A well defined cold front has quickly swept across the area today. Rain amount throughout the day have generally been from 1 to 2 inches along the north coast with locally higher amounts. At least a wetting rain has fallen across the entire area even in Lake County. At most, observed rain rates have been no higher than 0.4 in/hr even in stronger convective cells.

Colder air will build in tonight as the deepest part of the trough aloft moves on shore. Though moisture will be weakening, increasing instability will allow for a second pulse of showers later this evening through Thursday. These showers will bring increasing chances of lightning and accumulating small hail along the coast.
The greatest risk will be focused along shore Humboldt Bay and north. In addition, these showers will bring more sporadic rain with additional accumulation of 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Convective models all agree that the strongest rain rates have likely past with HRRR show a less than 10% chance of any rain rates over 0.5 inches per hour.
By 1700 this evening, the NAM shows PWATs dropping below 0.6 inches, making it very unlikely that even the increased rain efficiency of thunderstorms will be able to reach the rates needed for debris flow. This makes the threat of any burn scar debris flow very marginal overnight.

Increased instability will allow for gusty winds to continue, mostly remaining 30 to 45 mph in exposed areas. Gusty winds will spread further south, however, to the ridges of Mendocino and Lake and along the rim of the Sacramento Valley. In addition, mixing down colder air will allow for snow levels to fall significantly as low as 3500 feet. NBM now places a 70% chance of at least 4 inches of snow at Scott Mountain Summit on Thursday. Lighter snow is possible as low as Trinity Center with only trace amounts on highways 299 and 36. Snow impacts should be restricted to the high elevations of Trinity County. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Scott Mountain.

Conditions will gradually dry late in the week as colder, arctic air continues to advect over the area. Clearing skies will likely bring another round of potential frost along the coast with widespread fog in near coastal valleys. Model ensembles only show light additional rain showers through the weekend with any new accumulation below 0.5 inches and restricted to the coast. /JHW

AVIATION
Pre-frontal flight hazards included: periods of light-moderate rain, low Cig/Vis, southerly breezy/gusty winds and LLWS...most notable at CEC. Conditions revved up significantly by midday as the cold front moved across the North Coast; CEC and ACV had the greatest impacts as rain/embedded showers intensified, Cig/Vis dropped into IFR, and accelerated winds shifted WSW. Post frontal conditions basically improved, although Cig/Vis will generally continue especially with heavy showers; some showers could still contain small hail...and the threat of an isolated thunderstorm or two. LLWS subsided with the frontal passage
Across interior valleys today
especially at UKI: widespread LIFR Cig/Vis due to fog put UKI below flight minimums this morning. MVFR/IFR conditions continue to impact UKI through evening. /TA



MARINE
A brief lull in winds will end as a surge of westerly winds of 20 to 25 kts move in behind a front, briefly driving in a mix of some short period seas. This will be followed by a secondary storm impulse which will bring thunderstorms over the waters tonight and through Thursday. The environmental parameters look somewhat favorable for isolated storms to be capable of waterspouts and wind gusts up to gale strength, with best coverage in the northern zones.
As confidence grows on this scenario, a broad Marine Weather Statement may be appropriate to warn of these potential hazards. The greatest threat will be from approximately 3 AM through 8 AM Thursday. Winds will turn northerly and begin weakening later Thursday, followed by increasing from the south Saturday afternoon ahead of the next weather system. A large, long period westerly swell has peaked early this morning. The swell has begun the slow journey downward, which will continue into the weekend. Otherwise, an additional small westerly swell will move in Sunday, and could generate 10 ft seas.



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Flood Watch until 2 AM PST Thursday for CAZ101>106.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ107.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ450-455- 470-475.

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Cape Mendocino
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Thu -- 12:28 AM PST     1.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM PST     5.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:27 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:49 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:57 PM PST     1.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:28 PM PST     3.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Mendocino, California, Tide feet

Punta Gorda
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Thu -- 01:17 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:20 AM PST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:25 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:26 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM PST     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:49 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:21 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:08 PM PST     0.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:02 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:29 PM PST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Punta Gorda, California Current, knots

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Eureka, CA,