Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Deal, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday July 29, 2021 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:33PMMoonset 11:36AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 437 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
.tornado watch 401 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely early this evening. Tstms likely this evening, then a chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Light swell in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 437 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will lift north of the area this evening before a cold front moves across the area tonight. High pressure located across the mid west on Friday will build toward the east coast on Saturday. Another cold front is forecast to move across the area later Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure may briefly affect the area before an area of low pressure lifts north offshore of the east coast on Tuesday. The frontal boundary to our south may lift northward and affect the area for the middle to end of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 292016 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 416 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift north of the area this evening before a cold front moves across the area tonight. High pressure located across the Mid West on Friday will build toward the east coast on Saturday. Another cold front is forecast to move across the area later Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure may briefly affect the area before an area of low pressure lifts north offshore of the east coast on Tuesday. The frontal boundary to our south may lift northward and affect the area for the middle to end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. A Tornado Watch is in effect for the entire forecast area through 9 PM tonight.

The warm front continues to push northward this afternoon, as we have seen some destabilization occur fairly quickly behind it. The remnant MCV that moved through the Great Lakes is pushing into eastern Pennsylvania and should move off of the New Jersey coast this evening.

Most of the region remains in a slight or enhanced risk for severe weather, as issued by the SPC. The threats are damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado. The primary threat time will be this afternoon into evening.

While there are clouds clearly seen on visible satellite across the area, there are many breaks occurring with peeks of sun coming through. This is enhancing our instability and as a result confidence has grown that we will see convection develop and move through our area this afternoon and evening.

Some early showers and thunderstorms have started to pop up across Delmarva and New Jersey with the main line of storms off to the west in central PA. There is still support for effective bulk shear values of ~45 kts, which will be more than sufficient to support rotating updrafts. Some upscale growth is forecast as multiple cold pools start to be deposited and merge.

While areas to the north may see less of the action this afternoon, there is still the possibility for some strong to severe storms in those areas. To the south and east, we have seen much more clearing and temps have risen appreciably in response. Dew points have climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s, and heavy down pours remain another threat today though the storms should have sufficient motion so flash flooding is not as high on the threat list at this time. However, there is potential that along the frontal boundary we could see some back building so we will need to monitor those areas for flooding concerns.

As the storms clear the coast, surface low pressure will be located near the NY/Canada border and be dragging a surface cold front through the area. Winds will slowly turn from the northwest through the night with skies slowly clearing from the west.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Surface low pressure moves off to the northeast with its attendant cold front offshore by Friday morning. With the front offshore, the flow across the region will turn to the west and settle out of the northwest. Winds may become gusty through the afternoon, with gusts around 25 mph or so. Skies will be relatively clear through the day and with dew points dropping down into the 50s (potentially 40s in spots) it will feel nice and dry and pretty comfortable for late July. The cooler air being drawn into our region will be slightly below normal with highs into the 70s through the southern Poconos, northwest New Jersey and the Lehigh Valley and low to mid 80s through the rest of the region. Depending on how far offshore the front moves, we could see some temps remaining in the upper 80s for a while across southern Delaware and nearby eastern Maryland.

Friday night will be cold when compared to what we typically see in late July. The clear skies will help with radiative cooling and with the winds dropping off overnight, we should see things drop off decently overnight. Overnight lows will be a chilly upper 40s to low 50s across the northern zones through the Lehigh Valley and into portions of central New Jersey. Around the urban corridor and through Delaware, Maryland, and southern New Jersey, temperatures will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The first half of the weekend is expected to be quiet, before the potential for unsettle weather returns for the end of the weekend through much of next week.

On Saturday, high pressure to the west will control the weather, providing a dry forecast through Saturday night. Below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday night as well.

On Sunday, active weather could once again return to the forecast. An area of low pressure is forecast to move across southeast Canada and bring a frontal boundary/surface trough across the east coast Sunday into Sunday night. Meanwhile, an area o flow pressure may form along the frontal boundary to our south and move to the northeast offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day Sunday, most likely associated with the approaching frontal boundary coming from the west. The low off the coast may remain far enough offshore to not bring any impacts to the area.

On Monday, our area will be in between the departing system from the weekend, and another potential coastal low that is expected Tuesday. Therefore dry weather is expected on Monday.

However, on Tuesday, another coastal low is forecast to develop to our south and may end up inching close enough to the coast to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.

As we go through the second half of the week, unsettled weather is possible to continue for Wednesday and Thursday as the front to the south may begin moving back northward and into the area while a couple of low pressure systems may develop and move near the area as well.

Temperatures for the long term period are expected to be near or slightly below normal for the weekend into much of next week.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Showers and thunderstorms will move the terminals from west to east this afternoon, ending between 22Z-03Z. Conditions will drop to MVFR/IFR in and around any storms. Winds may gust in excess of 30 knots in and near thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to be MVFR for a period of time behind the storms before returning to VFR by late tonight. South to southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest around 5 to 10 knots overnight. Moderate confidence overall with low confidence in thunderstorm timing.

Friday . Mainly VFR. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday-Saturday night . VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 mph during the day, light and variable overnight.

Sunday . Mostly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, gusts 15-20 knots possible.

Sunday night . Chance for conditions to lower below VFR overnight. South winds early, becoming northwest overnight.

Monday-Monday night . Mostly VFR expected. Northwest winds 5-10 knots during the day, light and variable overnight.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Mostly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Northwest winds 5-10 knots during the day, light and variable overnight.

MARINE. SCA remain up for the ocean waters through midnight tonight.

Winds will gusts around 25 knots on the ocean in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Winds will start to drop off tonight. Seas around 3 to 4 feet.

Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected for Friday. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Seas will remain around 3 to 4 feet. A few gusts may near 25 knots late afternoon into Friday night in the strong northwest flow, especially in the coastal waters off of northern and central New Jersey. However, will hold off on issuing any new SCA's at this time until the current SCA has expired.

Outlook .

Saturday-Tuesday . Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the period.

Rip Currents .

Winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts today with gusts at SCA criteria. There will be an onshore component for the NJ coast today as winds veer from the south. Given the above, and the 8 second period forecast, the rip risk for Coastal Cape May and Coastal Atlantic will be MODERATE today. The rest of the beaches will be kept at LOW given the orientation of the coastline relative to the wind direction. Winds shift offshore for Friday, so the rip risk for Friday will be LOW.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>455.



Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . Meola Short Term . Meola Long Term . Robertson Aviation . Meola/Robertson Marine . Meola/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi40 min S 21 G 25 75°F1010 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi60 min S 22 G 26 75°F 1011.4 hPa (-3.6)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi60 min 78°F 76°F1010.6 hPa (-3.4)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi60 min S 19 G 21 75°F 1010.6 hPa (-3.5)
MHRN6 30 mi60 min S 11 G 14
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi60 min 75°F 74°F1011.3 hPa (-3.3)
44091 34 mi64 min 76°F4 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi40 min 16 G 19 73°F1011.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi60 min SW 21 G 27 74°F 1011.8 hPa (-3.4)
44022 - Execution Rocks 45 mi45 min S 16 G 18 75°F 69°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi60 min SSW 8.9 G 12 79°F 79°F1010.9 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi64 minSSE 8 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7SE4SE6SE5SE3E3S3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE8S8S9
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1 day agoS7S10S5S6SW7N4NW4S4CalmN4CalmCalmNW4W3W3W5N7N5N85NE8E8E8E11
2 days agoCalmS4S4S6CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S75S6SE9SE11SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:31 PM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.74.33.42.21.20.50.20.51.32.33.23.94.44.43.82.921.30.911.52.33.13.8

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.74.33.22.11.10.40.20.61.52.53.44.14.54.43.82.81.91.20.911.62.43.23.9

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