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Marine Weather and Tides Deal, NJ Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:13AM

Sunset 4:58PM

Saturday January 18, 2020 5:25 PM EST (22:25 UTC)

Moonrise 2:04AM

Moonset 1:13PM

Illumination 38%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 182113 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 413 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will move eastward to our north through tonight reaching the Gulf of Maine by Sunday morning. The low is forecast to pull a cold front through our region late tonight, followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday night. High pressure is expected to build from the north central states on Monday to the Middle Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The high should drift out to sea late in the week. The next low pressure system could affect the region next Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Snow will continue across the region as the winter storm continues to move out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The surface low responsible for this storm is currently located Much of the region aside from portions of far southern New Jersey and Delmarva has seen a light accumulation of snow to up to 2 inches across the Lehigh Valley. We picked up a nice dusting at our office even through the early afternoon. This will be short-lived, however, as warm air continues to advect northward the 850 mb warm nose of the system continues to lift out of Virginia. Temperatures are beginning to rise to near or even above freezing across Delmarva and Southern New Jersey and precipitation is beginning to transition to a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain into SE Pennsylvania and Delmarva. Mixed wintry precipitation is expected across all but the Pocono Plateau and far northwestern New Jersey, where precip may remain all snow. There is the possibility for a light accumulation of freezing rain as the transition occurs, thus we shifted the advisory southward a tier to cover these impacts since temperatures are still below freezing across the Philly Metro.

Just south of this transition, rain will begin to move northward over the next several hours and takeover from about the I-80 corridor southward through much of the overnight. Both hi-res and global models seem to have reached agreement in this trend, painting the highest snowfall totals across the I-80 corridor into the Poconos and into Warren, Sussex, and Morris Counties in New Jersey where 3-5 inches is expected to fall (highest totals being across the highest terrain where precipitation stays all snow or mostly snow). A lighter total accumulation is forecast south of this with a swath of 1-2 inches along and north of the I-95 corridor and less than one inch south of I-95.

Models have begun to indicate the possibility for a light round of showers and freezing drizzle across the Lehigh Valley and into northern New Jersey as the main cold front moves southeastward across the region. These will likely be localized, so coverage will be limited and likely will not cause significant issues.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The low will begin to pull away from our area Sunday as northwest flow overtakes the region. Conditions will improve with skies turning partly cloudy. A breezy and cooler day as the low deepens and the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the Northeast. Highs in the mid 30s across the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey and the low 40s across southern Delaware and southern New Jersey. A cold night is in store Sunday night with lows dropping down into the teens and low 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The upcoming week looks to be dry and dominated by high pressure. Temperatures will be chilly early in the week before moderating back to near average temperatures by Wednesday and then seasonably warm temperatures by the end of the week.

To start the period Monday morning, low pressure will continue moving north through Atlantic Canada while high pressure continues to settle south into the midwestern states. This will result in a pressure gradient persisting over the region so NW winds will remain a bit breezy under skies that will be mainly sunny. Highs will be mainly in the 20s to low 30s so seasonably cold.

The high will slowly build east toward the region through Tuesday resulting in a relaxing pressure gradient so Tuesday won't be as windy compared to Monday with continuing mainly sunny skies. Temperatures will be similar to Monday if not just slightly warmer.

Looking toward the middle to latter part of the week, high pressure continues to dominate bringing continuing fair weather with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will also be moderating as the air mass modifies. The next system could affect the area by next Saturday but early indications are this will be a mild system with mainly rain.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 0z . As of 21z, there is more freezing rain and sleet occuring across the area than previously forecast so adjustments were made accordingly to TAFs . mainly for sites along and N/W of the I-95 corridor. Through this afternoon conditions may fluctuate between MVFR visbys and IFR when more snow mixes back in. S/SE winds generally remaining around 5-10 knots with LLWS also developing.

Confidence is moderate with winds, moderate with low-level wind shear, moderate with precipitation timing, and low with onset of sub-VFR conditions and timing precipitation type transitions.

Tonight . Prolonged sub-VFR expected, as precipitation gradually winds down between 00z and 04z . ending as rain for most of the I-95 TAF sites and points S/E. CIGs/VSBYs may remain MVFR/IFR for much of the night, with improvement to VFR possible toward daybreak. Winds becoming southwest around 10 kt. Southwest LLWS through the evening with this improving overnight. Moderate overall confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. High confidence.

OUTLOOK .

Sunday night . Mainly VFR. West to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday . VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR. Winds variable but generally around 3-7 knots or less.

MARINE. Rest of today and tonight . A small craft advisory is in effect for the coastal waters and the lower Delaware Bay through Sunday night and for the Upper Delaware Bay Sunday and Sunday night with southerly winds to 25 knots. Southerly winds will turn turn southwesterly overnight and eventually westerly Sunday as a series of cold fronts move across the region. Seas ranging from 4 to 6 feet.

OUTLOOK .

Monday . Northwest wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots are expected early in the day with winds diminishing through the afternoon.

Monday night . Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots are possible.

Tuesday through Thursday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019. DE . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for DEZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ430.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Davis Short Term . Davis Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Davis/Fitzsimmons Marine . Davis/Fitzsimmons

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor	14 mi	36 min	S 16 G 19	34°F		3 ft	1021.8 hPa	33°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ	16 mi	56 min		27°F	40°F		1022.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ	29 mi	56 min		26°F	42°F		1022.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ	29 mi	56 min		27°F			1021.8 hPa
MHRN6	30 mi	146 min	SSE 5.1 G 6
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY	32 mi	56 min		27°F	43°F		1021.8 hPa
44091	34 mi	56 min			48°F	3 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY	40 mi	36 min	16 G 19	36°F	46°F	3 ft	1021.8 hPa (-5.7)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY	40 mi	56 min		26°F	38°F		1022.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks	45 mi	56 min	SE 5.8 G 7.8	27°F	32°F			26°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA	45 mi	56 min		27°F	39°F		1022 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ

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NW15 G20

NW13 G21

NW15

NW16 G21

N11 G15

N10 G18

NW10 G14

NW8 G11

N7 G13

NW7 G10

N4 G9

NE4 G8

N5

NW4 G10

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E1

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S5 G9

SW6

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SW9 G12

SE4

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S6 G9

1 day ago

NW22

NW29 G38

NW23 G29

NW24 G29

NW22 G30

NW28 G36

NW37

NW25 G32

NW22 G29

NW24 G34

NW24 G34

NW30

NW28 G38

NW23 G31

NW24 G31

N23 G34

N23 G30

NW24

N17 G28

NW18

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N13 G17

N15

NW16

2 days ago

NW3

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SE5

SE6

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S11

S10

S8 G11

SE8 G11

S8 G11

S7

W7

W9

W17

W16

W27 G35

NW19 G27

NW26

NW26 G32

NW23 G30

NW26

NW30 G41

NW18 G22

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ	12 mi	30 min	SSE 3	6.00 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	28°F	28°F	100%	1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)

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NW9

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Calm

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NW6

NW5

NW4

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E3

Calm

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SW12 G17

3

Calm

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E7

SE3

1 day ago

W12 G22

NW15 G24

NW12

NW18 G31

W17 G25

NW23 G31

NW23 G31

NW22 G34

NW16 G25

NW19 G31

NW22 G29

NW17 G24

NW11 G18

NW16 G23

NW20 G26

NW24 G28

NW21 G29

NW21 G29

NW20 G24

NW19 G24

NW13 G18

NW12

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NW9

2 days ago

SW3

Calm

SE3

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SE7

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SW5

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W12

W11 G21

W14

W25 G37

W22 G31

W25 G33

W18 G27

W26 G36

W23 G34

NW22 G37

W22 G30

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Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey

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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA

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