Saturday, January18, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deal, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:58PM Saturday January 18, 2020 5:25 PM EST (22:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:04AMMoonset 1:13PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 336 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
This afternoon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Rain or snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 336 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure over the great lakes will move eastward to our north through tonight reaching the gulf of maine by Sunday morning. The low is forecast to pull a cold front through our region late tonight, followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday night. High pressure is expected to build from the north central states on Monday to the middle atlantic coast on Wednesday. The high should drift out to sea late in the week. The next low pressure system could affect the region next Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 182113 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 413 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will move eastward to our north through tonight reaching the Gulf of Maine by Sunday morning. The low is forecast to pull a cold front through our region late tonight, followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday night. High pressure is expected to build from the north central states on Monday to the Middle Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The high should drift out to sea late in the week. The next low pressure system could affect the region next Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Snow will continue across the region as the winter storm continues to move out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The surface low responsible for this storm is currently located Much of the region aside from portions of far southern New Jersey and Delmarva has seen a light accumulation of snow to up to 2 inches across the Lehigh Valley. We picked up a nice dusting at our office even through the early afternoon. This will be short-lived, however, as warm air continues to advect northward the 850 mb warm nose of the system continues to lift out of Virginia. Temperatures are beginning to rise to near or even above freezing across Delmarva and Southern New Jersey and precipitation is beginning to transition to a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain into SE Pennsylvania and Delmarva. Mixed wintry precipitation is expected across all but the Pocono Plateau and far northwestern New Jersey, where precip may remain all snow. There is the possibility for a light accumulation of freezing rain as the transition occurs, thus we shifted the advisory southward a tier to cover these impacts since temperatures are still below freezing across the Philly Metro.

Just south of this transition, rain will begin to move northward over the next several hours and takeover from about the I-80 corridor southward through much of the overnight. Both hi-res and global models seem to have reached agreement in this trend, painting the highest snowfall totals across the I-80 corridor into the Poconos and into Warren, Sussex, and Morris Counties in New Jersey where 3-5 inches is expected to fall (highest totals being across the highest terrain where precipitation stays all snow or mostly snow). A lighter total accumulation is forecast south of this with a swath of 1-2 inches along and north of the I-95 corridor and less than one inch south of I-95.

Models have begun to indicate the possibility for a light round of showers and freezing drizzle across the Lehigh Valley and into northern New Jersey as the main cold front moves southeastward across the region. These will likely be localized, so coverage will be limited and likely will not cause significant issues.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The low will begin to pull away from our area Sunday as northwest flow overtakes the region. Conditions will improve with skies turning partly cloudy. A breezy and cooler day as the low deepens and the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the Northeast. Highs in the mid 30s across the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey and the low 40s across southern Delaware and southern New Jersey. A cold night is in store Sunday night with lows dropping down into the teens and low 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The upcoming week looks to be dry and dominated by high pressure. Temperatures will be chilly early in the week before moderating back to near average temperatures by Wednesday and then seasonably warm temperatures by the end of the week.

To start the period Monday morning, low pressure will continue moving north through Atlantic Canada while high pressure continues to settle south into the midwestern states. This will result in a pressure gradient persisting over the region so NW winds will remain a bit breezy under skies that will be mainly sunny. Highs will be mainly in the 20s to low 30s so seasonably cold.

The high will slowly build east toward the region through Tuesday resulting in a relaxing pressure gradient so Tuesday won't be as windy compared to Monday with continuing mainly sunny skies. Temperatures will be similar to Monday if not just slightly warmer.

Looking toward the middle to latter part of the week, high pressure continues to dominate bringing continuing fair weather with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will also be moderating as the air mass modifies. The next system could affect the area by next Saturday but early indications are this will be a mild system with mainly rain.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 0z . As of 21z, there is more freezing rain and sleet occuring across the area than previously forecast so adjustments were made accordingly to TAFs . mainly for sites along and N/W of the I-95 corridor. Through this afternoon conditions may fluctuate between MVFR visbys and IFR when more snow mixes back in. S/SE winds generally remaining around 5-10 knots with LLWS also developing.

Confidence is moderate with winds, moderate with low-level wind shear, moderate with precipitation timing, and low with onset of sub-VFR conditions and timing precipitation type transitions.

Tonight . Prolonged sub-VFR expected, as precipitation gradually winds down between 00z and 04z . ending as rain for most of the I-95 TAF sites and points S/E. CIGs/VSBYs may remain MVFR/IFR for much of the night, with improvement to VFR possible toward daybreak. Winds becoming southwest around 10 kt. Southwest LLWS through the evening with this improving overnight. Moderate overall confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. High confidence.

OUTLOOK .

Sunday night . Mainly VFR. West to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday . VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR. Winds variable but generally around 3-7 knots or less.

MARINE. Rest of today and tonight . A small craft advisory is in effect for the coastal waters and the lower Delaware Bay through Sunday night and for the Upper Delaware Bay Sunday and Sunday night with southerly winds to 25 knots. Southerly winds will turn turn southwesterly overnight and eventually westerly Sunday as a series of cold fronts move across the region. Seas ranging from 4 to 6 feet.

OUTLOOK .

Monday . Northwest wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots are expected early in the day with winds diminishing through the afternoon.

Monday night . Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots are possible.

Tuesday through Thursday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019. DE . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for DEZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ430.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Davis Short Term . Davis Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Davis/Fitzsimmons Marine . Davis/Fitzsimmons


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi36 min S 16 G 19 34°F 3 ft1021.8 hPa33°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi56 min 27°F 40°F1022.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi56 min 26°F 42°F1022.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi56 min 27°F 1021.8 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi146 min SSE 5.1 G 6
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi56 min 27°F 43°F1021.8 hPa
44091 34 mi56 min 48°F3 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi36 min 16 G 19 36°F 46°F3 ft1021.8 hPa (-5.7)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi56 min 26°F 38°F1022.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 45 mi56 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 27°F 32°F26°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi56 min 27°F 39°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi30 minSSE 36.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F28°F100%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9W8NW4W7W5NW6NW4W5CalmW4W4NW6NW5NW4N4E3Calm6SW12
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2 days agoSW3CalmSE3SE4S5S4S4SE7S7SW5S5W6W4W12W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:28 AM EST     4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:12 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:44 PM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:07 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.54.53.82.81.810.30.20.61.42.43.33.843.52.61.70.90.2-0.10.10.92

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:19 AM EST     4.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:39 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:35 PM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.64.53.72.71.70.90.30.20.71.62.63.43.943.42.51.50.80.1-0.10.21.12.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.