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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1043 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1043 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure will remain near the region through the middle of this week. High pressure moves north and east of the region Wednesday night through Thursday. The high will give way to a frontal system Friday into Saturday night, with a cold front passage late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds to the south Sunday and Monday.

FXUS61 KPHI 022318 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 718 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
An expansive area of high pressure will build over our region through Wednesday, then it weakens and shifts east Thursday. A cold front moves through on Saturday which brings a much cooler air mass into our region over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Surface high pressure centered in the eastern Great Lakes Region slowly shifts south and east tonight, centering itself over the Mid Atlantic. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight along with light and variable winds as a result. The setup is decent for strong radiational cooling, but dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s will likely put the brakes on temps cooling off too much overnight. With that said, patchy fog will certainly be possible early Tuesday morning given the expected low dew point depressions.

Sunny and dry conditions continue Tuesday with high pressure still very much in control. Temperatures will remain a tad warmer than climo with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with light and variable winds.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Quiet weather conditions continue with mainly clear skies at least until later Thursday, along with warmer than average temperatures for early October. A strong upper- level ridge will continue shifting eastward, from a position right along the East Coast Wednesday, to well offshore and up through the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will will extend from near Nova Scotia southwest down the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday, and only slowly give way while shifting east-northeastward on Thursday.

With the mid and upper-ridge axis centered just east of our region by Wednesday afternoon, warm temperatures aloft with stable, dry atmospheric conditions along with sunny skies will allow for the warmest day of the week. There is very little spread amongst the model guidance, giving us a high degree of confidence that highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s; perhaps surpassing 85F along parts of the urban corridor. That will probably not be enough to beat daily record highs that are mainly in the upper 80s, but will be around 12F above average for October 4th.

The cooler exceptions will be in the usual spots up toward the mountain ridges of the Poconos and northwest New Jersey. A sea breeze will likely be enhanced on Wednesday as the low-level synoptic flow becomes more southeasterly. This coupled with ocean water temperatures now in the mid to upper 60s will result in noticeably cooler temperatures at the beaches.

Heading into Thursday, temperatures aloft will start cooling slightly and some high clouds will begin to drift eastward across the Appalachians as the next storm system approaches.
That will likely be the last completely dry day of the week, but high temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 70s, if not near 80F in the warmest spots.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
An upper-level trough amplifies eastward from the Midwest, Great Lakes and adjacent Canada. This trough will continue eastward into the weekend and will push a cold front across our area around Saturday.

Friday should still be a fairly mild to warm day ahead of the cold front, with southerly winds advecting higher dew points in, possibly reaching the mid to upper 60s. That will combine with highs in the 70s to make for another day that will feel more like summer rather than fall. Models continue to disagree on the strength of the associated upper-level trough and the timing of the cold front, but seem to be trending toward a more amplified and subsequently slower solution. Isolated to scattered showers may start breaking out ahead of the front on Friday, more likely during the afternoon and evening to the west of I-95. There does look like there may be some modest instability, but not a significant amount of forcing yet, so have kept thunder out of the forecast at this time. Heading through Friday night into Saturday as the cold front and main upper-level trough draw closer, forcing will increase substantially, resulting in higher chances for showers. Would not rule out thunder, but again have kept out of the forecast for now given questionable instability.
Temperatures on Saturday will depend on the timing of the front, but may feature highs occurring earlier in the day. Breezy southerly winds will precede the front, switching quickly to northwest or west on Saturday. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, probably putting an end to any showers by Saturday night or at least Sunday morning. A deep upper trough, probably in the form of a strong closed low over the Great Lakes will advect some moisture and resultant stratocumulus over the Appalachians, with at least some sunshine closer to I-95 and especially toward the coast. High temperatures in the low to mid 60s will be accompanied by a west-northwesterly breeze.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR under a mostly clear sky. Patchy fog may impact some of our TAF sites after 06Z with the best chances for this being at RDG. Variable wind 5 knots or less. Medium to high confidence.

Tuesday...Some patchy early morning fog possible, otherwise VFR.
Light and variable winds becoming north to northwest 5-10 knots during the day, then a sea breeze should turn the winds southeasterly at ACY in the afternoon. Low confidence regarding early morning fog, otherwise high confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Some patchy early morning fog, otherwise VFR. Light and variable winds becoming east to southeast 5-10 knots during the day. Low confidence regarding early morning fog.

Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds becoming southeasterly 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Friday...VFR perhaps early in the day, then MVFR conditions possible with an increasing chance for showers later in the day or at night. SE/S winds 10-15 kt. Low confidence.

Saturday...MVFR to IFR conditions with showers. Winds becoming W or NW 10-20 kt, possibly gusty, with the passage of a cold front.

MARINE
As of 715 PM, we still have Small Craft Advisories for points south of Little Egg Inlet through Tuesday morning, but will cancel those earlier if conditions fall below criteria.

Otherwise, NE winds around 10 kts will become variable around 5 knots overnight. Seas will drop to 3-4 feet during this time as well. For Tuesday, variable winds around 5 knots will continue through the morning and then shift from the south in the afternoon around 5-10 kts with seas staying around 3-4 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Friday and Saturday...Conditions may reach Small Craft Criteria, mainly due to seas on the ocean zones that may build to 5 feet later Friday. Southerly winds will increase, possibly gusting to 25 kt later Friday. A cold front will sweep through at some point on Saturday, bringing winds around to the west or northwest.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal departures and the astronomical high tide levels will be on the decrease through the week. Some spotty minor flooding did occur this morning near the time of high tide, and would not rule out that again with high tide on Tuesday, but to a lesser degree. However, none of this will be enough to prompt any Coastal Flood Advisories.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ452>455.

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Matawan Creek
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Mon -- 04:33 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:15 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:06 PM EDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey, Tide feet

New Bedford
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Mon -- 04:20 AM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:54 PM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Bedford, New Jersey, Tide feet

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