Monday, September16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Branch, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:05PM Monday September 16, 2019 3:20 AM EDT (07:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:36PMMoonset 8:41AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 109 Am Edt Mon Sep 16 2019
Rest of tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 109 Am Edt Mon Sep 16 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will stall south of our area through today while high pressure weakens to our west. A weak area of low pressure slides near our region on Monday. High pressure builds across the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, then shifts southward across the mid-atlantic region Thursday. The high is forecast to shift to our south Friday, then offshore next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Branch, NJ
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location: 40.28, -73.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 160647
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
247 am edt Mon sep 16 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will stall south of our area through today while
high pressure weakens to our west. A weak area of low pressure
slides near our region on Monday. High pressure builds across
the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, then shifts southward
across the mid-atlantic region Thursday. The high is forecast to
shift to our south Friday, then offshore next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
245 am update: dense fog has spread into talbot and caroline
counties in maryland and kent county in delaware. Have expanded
the advisory to include these areas. Fog has become patchier in
new jersey than observed earlier, possibly owing to a weak
shortwave moving through the area at this time. Still seeing
local observations down to a quarter mile, so will keep advisory
going here for now. However, may be able to cancel before
sunrise for the nj portion.

Previous discussion...

dense fog has set in along the coast. Webcams and surface
observations are deteriorating, with coverage high enough at
this point to warrant a dense fog advisory. Expecting the fog to
continue (though with variations in density and coverage)
through the overnight but to dissipate quickly after sunrise.

The fog appears to stretch from ocean county southward to sussex
county in delaware, but may spread further inland in delmarva
(at least, according to hi-res model simulations). Notably, the
models are doing a rather poor job with the timing and evolution
of the low clouds and fog, so not overly confident on spatial
extent and overall duration.

The other concern today is a low-amplitude northwest-flow
perturbation moving through the northeast. Latest model
simulations depict strong enough lift to generate some showers
in the northern cwa, though likely quite light and fairly
scattered. Nevertheless, confidence is increasing with
sufficient coverage to increase pops a little bit (mainly north
of interstate 78) today. Farther to the south, will likely
observe a sufficient period of partial sunshine to see
appreciable diabatic warming before increased lower cloud cover
sets in. This makes the temperature forecast somewhat tricky,
with MOS showing a fair amount of spread across the region.

Incorporated a fair amount of hi-res guidance into the highs for
today, as these seem to have reasonable agreement on evolution
of clouds precipitation today. This resulted in a forecast quite
close to continuity, perhaps a degree or two colder overall.

Other concern today is the sea breeze and the timing of the cold
front associated with the perturbation. Temperatures along the
coast will likely be much cooler than areas farther inland,
owing to the sea breeze's push onshore this afternoon.

Additionally, the cold front will bring fairly stout cold
advection into the area immediately upstream, so should see a
fairly sharp gradient in temperatures (including highs) in the
northern cwa.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Cold front will continue south tonight, with large-scale ascent
possibly remaining sufficient for some showers in the southern
half of the cwa. There are subtle indications of increasing
vorticity in the northwest flow overnight, which may explain why
shower coverage appears to increase south of the front after
dark. Not overly sold on this potential, but did increase pops
in DELMARVA and far southern new jersey to at least mentionable
during the evening overnight period.

Immediately downstream of the front, may see a resurgence in low
clouds and fog. However, this potential remains rather unclear
owing to uncertainty with the frontal position and shower
coverage. As such, have held off mentioning this in the
forecast. Meanwhile, for areas north of the front, temperatures
should be colder, especially as skies clear. However, there may
be enough of a breeze to keep temperatures from going to values
suggested by the colder guidance, so kept the forecast close to
a statistical blend.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Synoptic overview:
an extended period of quiet weather looks likely over our area
for the long term. At the mid-lvls a fairly amplified ridge will
reside upstream of the area for essentially the entire long-
term period (although at times oscillating in orientation and
mean-position). At the surface the upstream ridge positioning
will promote anticyclogenesis with the initial surface high
centered north of the area. By the end of the workweek the high
will re-orient itself south of the area shifting the low-lvl
flow from onshore to offshore with a corresponding increase in
temperatures expected.

Dailies:
the boundary will be largely south of the area by Tuesday
afternoon with highs generally in the 70s areawide.

Wednesday Thursday: should be dry and mild with onshore flow
prevailing. Highs will generally be near climo (low to mid 70s)
with lows in the low to mid 50s. Mostly sunny outside of some
occasional stratus (most prevalent near the coast).

Friday Saturday: the high will relocate south of the area
towards the late week-early weekend with the flow shifting more
westerly as a result. This will usher in a warming trend into
the weekend with maxes increasing into the upper 70s lower 80s
on Friday, and then increasing further into the mid 80s on
Saturday. Precipitation chances remain essentially nil. A
mostly quiet long term period is expected, with only a small
chance of precipitation at the beginning of the period..

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... Expect periods of ifr lifr at acy and miv as
low clouds and fog have moved inland much more readily than
forecast.VFR conditions should occur elsewhere. Light variable
winds. High confidence.

Monday... MainlyVFR, with cloud cover increasing lowering from
north to south through the day. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or
shower, especially at rdg abe ttn, but negligible impacts are
expected at the terminals. Light variable winds becoming
northeast up to 10 kt as a cold front moves through the area
late in the day. Moderate confidence.

Monday night... MainlyVFR, but cannot rule out some sub-vfr
conditions in advance of the southward-moving cold front at
acy miv during the evening. Winds generally northeast up to 10
kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Wednesday night... MostlyVFR during the day, with a
chance of MVFR conditions overnight in stratus. East to
northeast winds 5-10 knots
Thursday-Thursday night... GenerallyVFR conditions expected with
east-southeast winds 5-10 kts.

Marine
Areas of dense fog are occurring near the coast on delaware bay
and the atlantic waters. Coverage appears sufficient to warrant
a dense fog advisory through 8 am; however, conditions may be
quite variable and may improve away from the coast. The low
clouds and fog may linger through the morning, so will be
monitoring surface observations closely to determine if the
advisory needs to be extended.

Regarding winds seas, sub-advisory conditions are expected
through tonight. However, a cold front will be moving through
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will switch
to northeast, becoming 10 to 20 kt overnight. Though conditions
are expected to remain below advisory thresholds, cannot rule
out an isolated occurrence of 25 kt wind gusts around daybreak.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Thursday... SCA conditions potentially developing as
early as Tuesday but likely by Wednesday. Seas will increase to
5-7 ft by late Wednesday with northeasterly wind gusts likely
increasing to 25 kts or so as well.S
rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at new jersey and delaware beaches on Monday due to
light southerly flow and waves of 2-3 feet in the surf zone.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for njz020>027.

De... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for dez002>004.

Md... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for mdz019-020.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for anz430-431-
451>455.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Carr
aviation... Cms carr
marine... Cms carr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 10 mi31 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 72°F3 ft1017.6 hPa64°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 15 mi51 min W 5.1 G 8.9 72°F 73°F1018.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 28 mi51 min W 8.9 G 8.9 71°F 1017.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi57 min 69°F 73°F1018 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 30 mi51 min 71°F 72°F1018 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi51 min WSW 5.1 G 7
44091 35 mi21 min 71°F3 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 36 mi31 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 69°F3 ft1017.6 hPa (-0.4)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi51 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 72°F1018.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 49 mi51 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 66°F 73°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ16 mi25 minWSW 510.00 miFair66°F64°F96%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4----Calm--NW3----N5Calm--3E5SE93SE6SE4CalmCalm--SW5----SW3
1 day agoE5------CalmSE3--S9
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S6S5S6----------
2 days ago------NE11
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E12E12E9E7E8E6----E6----

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Mon -- 03:18 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:28 AM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:43 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.60.70.20.31.12.33.54.34.74.74.13.12.11.20.60.4123.24.14.54.64.2

Tide / Current Tables for Gooseneck Point, bridge, New Jersey
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Gooseneck Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.72.21.610.50.10.10.61.32.12.52.82.72.31.81.20.70.40.20.51.11.92.4

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.