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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 329 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers early, then isolated showers late this morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of rain showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 41 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 090632 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 132 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Clouds will increase tonight ahead of developing low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. This system will provide scattered showers early Saturday, becoming more numerous heading into the evening associated with a cold front. High pressure and colder temperatures will arrive Sunday and continue into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Evening update...
Clouds have thickened this evening as low-level moisture transport has increased over the last few hours. This is evident in the 00Z ILN RAOB with strong (35-40 knots) southwesterly flow found between 850-800mb. Aloft, considerable amounts of dry air exists, likely limiting any initial showers to sprinkles as the enter the area over the next few hours. Further into the overnight, large-scale diffluence over the region will be able to take advantage of deeper, richer moisture which eventually arrives from the southwest. This gradually increases shower coverage overnight and into early Saturday morning. Around sunrise, region-wide forcing is fairly weak, potentially leading to a general lull in shower coverage through mid- morning, ahead of the better forcing and more widespread activity Saturday afternoon.

Cloud cover and wind speeds keep overnight temperatures elevated, with most locations lingering in the 40s and even lower 50s.

Previous discussion...(356 PM)
Strengthening low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley will shift into the Great Lakes this evening through tonight.
Persistent southwest flow ahead of the system will cause clouds to thicken overnight and keep temperatures mild, with lows in the upper 40s east to low 50s west. A few showers are possible by morning with some modest mass convergence ahead of a low level jet.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Latest guidance has come in with less precipitation on Saturday. This is especially noticeable with the orientation of the low level jet early Saturday morning being further to the west. This results in rain showers being more scattered in nature.

Beyond this, showers should increase in coverage along and ahead of the cold front late in the afternoon through the evening hours. Latest guidance brings total rainfall to the range of a half to one inch, with heaviest amounts across northeast KY into south central Ohio.

After highs in the low 60s in the warm sector Saturday afternoon, cold air advection behind the front will push low temperatures Saturday night down into the mid 30s west through mid 40s in the east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Showers may still be lingering at the beginning of the period, but should clear out fairly quickly which will keep remaining precipitation as rain. Highs will be at the start of the day in eastern counties with temperatures continuing to fall through the morning before steadying out. There is some potential for a few degree rise from morning low in western counties.

West northwest flow coming off of Lake Michigan could bring a streamer across northern counties with a few rain or snow showers into Sunday night.

High pressure will then briefly build in. A dry front will slide through the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. Another high will build in for the rest of the period. Below normal temperatures on Monday will then moderate with only a minor blip in this trend mid week in the wake of the front.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Moisture increases in response to southwesterly 50 KT low level jet this morning. This will allow scattered showers to overspread the TAF sites from the southwest. Ceilings to drop to MVFR early this morning, with IFR ceilings possible thru the afternoon and into this evening.

Scattered early showers this morning decrease in coverage late morning to early afternoon as the initial band of WAA pcpn shifts off to the northeast.

An increased chance for showers arrives after 20Z as a surface cold front and associated forcing approach from the west. Some marginal instability is indicated by most model solutions - so can't rule out some thunderstorms. Given the lower confidence, kept mention out of the TAFs for this issuance.

The front pushes east of the TAF sites this evening with southwest winds shifting to the northwest. Precipitation chances also diminish with the passage of the front. MVFR ceilings may briefly bounce up to VFR later tonight before dropping back to MVFR early Sunday.

Southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts to gust up to 25 kts today and then shift to the northwest this evening around 10 to 12 kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Sunday and Sunday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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