Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunbury, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A mid level disturbance and its associated surface low pressure will move southeast across the northern Great Lakes and parts of southeast Ontario tonight. This system will increase the surface pressure gradient across the area, along with an increase in a west/southwest (dry) low level jet. Sustained south/southwest surface winds will vary, from about 10 mph south of Ohio River to about 20 mph across our northern zones. Gusts will mainly be pressure gradient driven given the strong/steep inversion forecast to develop overnight. This will at least keep those wind gusts in check (not allowing for stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface). Hence, wind gusts will vary from about 20 mph south of the Ohio River to 30 to 35 mph across the far north. It will remain dry with only passing higher level clouds from time to time. Lows will drop into the lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
With the aforementioned system moving away on Sunday, our region will see a brief return to high pressure at the surface and aloft. This will result in sunshine and warmer temperatures as WAA/southwest flow continues. Highs will range from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. Clouds will begin to increase late in the day over the southwest ahead of the next weather system.

For Sunday night into Monday, a mid level low over the southern Plains will open up as it ejects northeast across the lower and middle Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. This feature will be accompanied by a moist southerly low level jet. Thus, dynamic lift and moisture will result in high chances for rain overnight. Pcpn chances will then diminish/taper off from west to east on Monday as the system moves east of the area. It will be milder. After lows mainly in the 40s, highs on Monday will range from the lower 50s north to the mid/upper 50s south.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Deep moisture is gone by Monday Night but enough lingering low level moisture and forcing for lift to keep low PoPs of light rain/drizzle going. The lingering moisture and diminished pressure gradient will also likely lead to some areas of fog.
Deep moisture will then overspread the area again on Tuesday associated with a fairly strong wave of low pressure along the earlier front. Pretty widespread rainfall will accompany this low with the highest chances east and some mixing with snow is likely over the northwest 1/2. In fact some of the scenarios we're looking at suggest a swath of slushy accumulation is possible generally along and north of a Richmond to Bellefontaine line. This is something we'll be tracking the next couple days but for now expect any snow to be brief and moving out Tuesday Night.

The mid-week period will feature seasonally cold temperatures and the chance for a few snow flurries. Highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark over most of the area Wed and Thu with blustery west and northwest winds. Warmup then begins on Friday as southerly flow enhances ahead of the next Pacific short wave to clip through over the weekend. Precipitation looks to be all rain with this system and for now only scattered light amounts are expected.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A fast-moving mid level disturbance and associated surface low pressure will move across the northern Great Lakes and parts of southeast Ontario tonight. Mainly high level clouds will spill southeast from time to time, so VFR conditions are expected. The biggest aviation concern will be the development of LLWS associated with a strong west/southwest low level jet. Winds aloft should increase this evening and overnight, with LLWS conditions developing between 00Z and 02Z Sunday as a nocturnal inversion develops. Sustained winds will range from 8 to 18 knots from the southwest from south of the Ohio River to our northern forecast area. Pressure gradient wind gusts will vary between 18 knots south of the Ohio River to 28 knots across our northern forecast area. Winds at 2000 feet will veer westerly with a peak range of 55 to 60 knots expected between 06Z and 09Z Sunday across the northern terminals.

On Sunday, the low pressure system will move away, allowing for some surface and mid level ridging to move back into the region. The LLWS threat will end around 14Z and stronger winds move east and the nocturnal inversion begins to erode with warming and daytime heating. Winds will still be from the southwest between 10 and 15 knots with gusts between 18 and 22 knots. Cloud will increase from the southwest late in the day ahead of the next weather system to affect the region Sunday night into Monday.

OUTLOOK...IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are expected late Sunday night into Monday. MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will likely continue Monday night into Tuesday.
MVFR ceilings will possibly persist into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.