Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delaware, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Still some dry air to overcome, with KILN/KIND showing expanding area of returns but still cloud ceilings of 8-9 kft. As a result with the dry air to overcome, did delay onset of snow a bit. Where the uncertainty remains is the timing between saturation and precip onset and the push of warm air already nosing into southern Indiana near BMG. Still expecting some cooling at the leading edge as the column saturates, with the optimum time period for accumulating snow generally north of I-70 and west of I-75 in the 22z-04z timeframe.
After about 02z, the warm air push begins in earnest, with areas along/south of I-71 transitioning to a rain/snow mix then to all rain by 04-07z.

Less confidence in accumulating snow along the SE tier of the advisory/generally right along the I-71 corridor, with areas to the southeast likely only coming in with Trace to 0.5 inch to only the outside possibility of more than that before the transition to all rain.

Overnight lows generally nearly steady in the lower 30s across the north early, then rising to mid 30s after 06-07z, with and even greater increase to lower 40s after initial lows in the lower 30s across the south.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As the low and associated cold front pushes through the region through the morning on Sunday, precip comes to an end, with southerly winds become SW then west with gusts to about 20-25 mph in the wake of the front. Temperatures will be nearly steady/falling generally along/NW of the I-71 corridor in the low to mid 30s, with 40-45 for daytime highs on Sunday in the SE forecast area before the front passes.

Clouds remain cloudy, with winds relaxing to about 05-10 mph Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Dynamic weather system expected to impact the Ohio Valley early in the work week. While forecast conditions will remain dry and seasonable during the daytime hours on Monday, a longwave H5 trough will begin to carve its way into the Midwest region Monday night.
There is still some large discrepancies on where the location of the surface low will be positioned, but there is some general consensus that it will be around the southeastern CONUS and ride up along the Atlantic coast. However, strong PVA at 500mb does appear to develop a potent wave in the Ohio Valley, which may induce the necessary forcing to generate accumulating snowfall across a large portion of our fa. Snow ratios will trend closer to 10:1 around the I-71 corridor, with lower values to the SE and higher to the NW. Bufkit soundings do not appear to show deep saturation with sustained negative omega in the DGZ, which will help limit the potential for reaching the 'high end' snowfall forecasts for this particular snowfall event. Even so, there is a high likelihood that majority of our CWA will observe at least some accumulating snowfall, but CAMs will help to hone in on where the greatest impacts might be expected.

Majority of the accumulating snowfall will begin to taper off by Tuesday afternoon, but lingering periods of flurries certainly plausible into the evening. Drier weather becomes favored again for Wednesday, but a northerly system could usher in a brief shot of snowfall again Wednesday night into Thursday. Limited (if any)
accumulations would be expected with this.

Pattern remains active as another system is expected to impact the region late in the work week, which will likely bring some combination of rain, snow and perhaps even a wintry-mix.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As high pressure departs and the gradient increases ahead of the deep upper trough, SE winds beginning to increase. Slowed prevailing MVFR visibility in initial snow just slightly with a slower progression of saturating the column. KDAY will be the most likely location to reach IFR conditions in a better moisture regime as precipitation overspreads the region, with initial -SN through about 02-04z, then RA/SN mix for all locations, with especially KCVG/KLUK/KILN becoming all -RA after 04z. Precip and associated vsby restrictions end in the 12-14z timeframe, but MVFR cigs expected through the period.

SE winds gusting to 25kts through much of the overnight, becoming southerly in the 07-10z timeframe.

OUTLOOK.. MVFR CIGs will persist through the day Sunday. More snow is expected Monday night into Tuesday with additional MVFR/IFR conditions likely.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>055-060>062-070-071.
KY...None.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059- 066.