Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little Silver, NJ

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Silver, NJ

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 290140 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 940 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the Northeast and Great Lakes regions will weaken tonight and drift out to sea. Meanwhile, low pressure over eastern North Carolina will drift into the Mid-Atlantic through mid-week. High pressure then returns for the end of the week. A cold front may affect the region next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will continue to sag to the south and east tonight through Monday, and will be over the Canadian Maritimes by Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, closed mid level low over the Tennessee Valley will slowly drift to the east and will be over the Carolina coast by Monday afternoon.
Surface low associated with this system will meander over the Mid- Atlantic during this time as well.

Overnight, focus is on the potential for fog/drizzle in Delmarva and South Jersey overnight. The persistent onshore flow continues, setting the stage for the cooler marine layer to remain over this part of the region through the overnight.
Model soundings depict a relatively dry layer above the shallow marine layer overnight (around 800 to 900 mb). Consequently, this looks like more of a fog set up than low stratus set up.
That being said, confidence is low due the presence of higher clouds above the dry layer.

Some high resolution models depict another round of showers progressing into far southern Delaware, and Caroline, Queen Anne's, and Talbot Counties in MD late tonight. However, coverage late this evening for upstream areas is more limited than what many of these models were depicting. Consequently, stayed close to the previous PoPs in the 20 to 30 percent range.
For Monday, bands of rain showers will continue to lift to the north into the far southern areas. There should be enough upper level instability due to shortwave energy to result in a chance for a rumble of thunder or two in Delmarva and possibly into extreme southern New Jersey Monday afternoon.

As high pressure to the north builds to the south and east, and as low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic drifts a bit farther to the north, a tightening northeast pressure gradient will develop, mainly over northern New Jersey. Winds will be light and variable, though with an onshore component, and then northeast winds increase to 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts, mainly along the coasts, as well as across northern New Jersey and down the I-95 corridor by Monday afternoon.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 80s across portions of southeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, and otherwise in the upper 70s to low 80s for most other inland areas. Highs along the coasts will be in the upper 60s to low 70s owed to onshore flow and the colder ocean temperatures.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The short term forecast period looks to be dominated by a rather stagnant weather pattern, particularly at the surface. A high amplitude upper level ridge will promote continued strong surface high pressure, centered offshore to the east of the region.
Underneath the upper level ridge, a cutoff upper level low with an associated surface low will continue to be centered just south of the region. The continued presence of the high pressure will prevent the low from advancing very far north through this period.

As a result, it is a tale of two forecasts, depending on your location relative to the low. Areas south and east of the I-95 urban corridor, which are closer to the low, will see continued cloudy conditions with chances for showers (generally 30-50%). High temperatures will also be cooler in this area, upper 60s to near 70 on Tuesday, then low 70s on Wednesday. North and west of the urban corridor, conditions are expected to be dry through Wednesday, with mostly clear skies. High temperatures in this area are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s each day. The I-95 urban corridor itself will generally be straddling the edge of the influence of the low.
As a result, showers cannot be completely ruled out in this region (PoPs generally 15-25% through Wednesday).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
It will take until midweek, but the last remnants of the upper low from the SE/Mid-Atlantic will be moving across the area Wed night before finally dissipating. This first period (Wed night) will have chance pops for Delmarva/srn NJ and slight chance pops further NW including the Delaware Valley. After that, a couple (more) dry days for the region as both a surface and upper ridge develop over the region. This ridge doen't last long since a trough deepens over New England and the Canadian maritime provinces next weekend. The operational models differ with the details, but a cold front should push through and probably bring chances for some showers.

Temperatures will be above normal Thu with mostly mid 80s inland and upper 70s/low 80s near the shore and Delmarva. Under a decent sunny day Fri, readings will climb further, topping out in the upper 80s/low 90s inland and low/mid 80s for the shore. After that, provided that the cold front crosses the area, readings should tick back closer to normal by late weekend.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight (through 12Z)...VFR conditions are expected for most locations. However, at KMIV and KACY, there is a risk of fog/BR development in the marine layer. Given the temperature/dewpoint profile in model soundings, the set up is more favorable for fog than low stratus development. That being said, higher clouds (above the marine layer) should somewhat limit radiational cooling. Consequently, confidence on fog development is low.
Given the low confidence, and the increasing higher clouds, MVFR visibility restrictions were included in a tempo group between 08 and 12Z even though some models depict LIFR for these terminals. That being said, will be watching temp/dew point trends and the 00Z RAOB soundings very closely over the next few hours. Winds should favor easterly or southeasterly direction, but as wind speeds decrease, winds could be light and variable overnight.

Monday (12Z through 00Z)...Any lingering BR/Fog at KMIV and KACY should dissipate by 15Z as wind speeds increase. VFR otherwise.
Light SHRA possible at KMIV/KACY in the afternoon, but chance is 30 percent or less, so have left it out of the TAFs for now.
E-NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after 18Z. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...VFR conditions will likely persist for most of our TAF sites, though showers will try to advance northward at times, possibly reaching as far as KPHL or so. KACY and KMIV could possibly have occasional MVFR ceilings, but that would probably be the reasonable worst case. Lower conditions with MVFR VSBY in showers will be possible closer to Delaware Bay on southward. Winds will be steady from the ENE, generally 10 to 15 kt but a bit higher on Tuesday, with some gusts 20 to 25 kt possible near the coast. Moderate confidence.

Thursday/Friday...VFR expected most of the time.

MARINE
Now that the seas of the Delaware Atlantic Coastal waters have subsided, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, NE winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt for northern NJ ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt for southern NJ and DE ocean waters. Seas build to 5 to 6 ft over northern NJ ocean waters, and seas will build to 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. Will hoist a SCA for ANZ450-451 starting at 18Z.

Outlook...

Monday night...Small Craft Advisory continues for coastal waters north of Little Egg Inlet. Northeast winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Seas of 4 to 6 feet. South of the SCA, northeast winds around 15 kts with seas of 3 to 5 feet. Showers possible south of Little Egg Inlet (20-40% chance north of Cape May, 40-60% chance south of Cape May).

Tuesday...SCA conditions likely continue and expand to all coastal ocean waters as seas increase to 4 to 6 feet. Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, with gusts around 25 kts. Winds decrease to 10 to 15 kts and seas begin to decrease to 3 to 5 feet Tuesday night. 15-35% chance for showers north of Little Egg Inlet, 35-55% chance south.

Wednesday...Marine headlines unlikely. Seas decrease to 2 to 4 feet.
Northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots. 25-45% chance for showers, with increasing showers further south.

Rip Currents...

A MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents continues through Tuesday for both the New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

A northeasterly wind is forecast to increase during Memorial Day (15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph) before diminishing some Tuesday.
Breaking waves in the surf zone are forecast to be mainly in the 3-4 foot range. A dominant east to southeast swell with a period of near 8 seconds will continue. The stronger northeast winds however could result in a period of a high risk mainly for the beaches of Monmouth and Ocean counties, however given the forecast wave heights kept the risk as moderate.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450-451.

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